3 minute read
A wounded Arsenal takes on leaders Liverpool in the highlight of Round Nine. A loss for the Gunners will see them slip seven points off the pace and possibly as low as sixth.
Elsewhere, the four sides yet to register a win (Wolves, Southampton, Ipswich, Palace) face difficult assignments. Another round of poor results for that quartet will see them potentially further adrift.
LEICESTER v NOTTINGHAM FOREST
History: These sides have only met three times in the past ten years, twice in the Premier League and once in the FA Cup. Strong wins for the home side (Forest twice and Leicester once) emphasises the advantage of playing on your own patch in this midlands derby.
Form: A pleasing couple of weeks for Leicester, who achieved back-to-back wins to pull well clear of the drop zone. Three goals in the last quarter of their clash at Southampton turned around a two-goal halftime deficit and will no doubt give Steve Cooper's side a great deal of confidence heading into this.
Forest continued their excellent start to the campaign with a hard-fought 1-0 win at home against struggling Crystal Palace. They have picked up an impressive eight points from four away games thus far, with a win at Anfield and a draw at Stamford Bridge the highlights.
Overview: This should be very entertaining. A win in this Friday night game will, for a few hours at least, park Forest in fifth spot! Leicester has proved difficult to beat at the King Power though. Looks very tight.
Prediction: Draw at $3.40.
ASTON VILLA v BOURNEMOUTH
History: Bournemouth won four of their first five EPL clashes with Villa but fortunes have turned recently. In the past two seasons, the scorelines at Villa Park have been 3-0 and 3-1 to the home side.
Form: Villa put away Fulham at Craven Cottage but Andersen's send-off with the match in the balance at 2-1 was crucial. It wasn't Villa's most convincing display but any win in west London is a good three points these days. It was followed up by more midweek glory in the Champions League, their old ground rocking with a 2-0 win over Bologna.
Bournemouth caused possibly the upset of the season to date by disposing of Arsenal 2-0 at the Vitality. The dismissal of Saliba obviously had a big impact on the result, but other sides like Man City and Brighton have faced a ten-man Arsenal and failed to win. Their form away is less convincing, so a trip to Villa Park doesn't bode well.
Overview: With confidence soaring it looks like a win for the Villains who have another top four finish firmly in their sights.
Prediction: Aston Villa to win at $1.90.
BRENTFORD v IPSWICH
History: A fixture dominated by Brentford when the teams met for five seasons in the Championship in the mid to late 2010's – no encounters since 2019.
Form: Brentford led Man U at Old Trafford when they went to the sheds but two goals inside 18 minutes of the re-start gave the home side a well-deserved win. At home, the Bees remain unbeaten this campaign, scoring 15 goals along the way in the five games in all competitions.
After four consecutive draws things have gone sour for Ipswich. Consecutive losses to strugglers West Ham and Everton see them embroiled in a four-way battle at the foot of the table. Just six goals scored in eight games is not a good enough return.
Overview: Brentford is travelling far better than their newly promoted opponents. If this was at Portman Road it might be a little harder to pick, but at the Gtech it looks like another win for Thomas Frank's side.
Prediction: Brentford to win at $1.70.
BRIGHTON v WOLVES
History: These sides have met a dozen times in the EPL and the ledger stands at five wins for Brighton, five draws, two wins to Wolves. In the past two campaigns, the Seagulls have thumped 13 goals past Wolves with just three in reply. Brighton hosted Wolves in the third round of the Carabao Cup in September and ran out 3-2 winners.
Form: Still only one defeat for Brighton and it all happened in one half at Stamford Bridge when Cole Palmer famously ran riot. Otherwise it has been an excellent campaign, with consecutive wins over Spurs and Newcastle a very strong form line.
Wolves put a woeful display against Brentford behind them with a season-best performance against Man City last weekend at Molineaux. It took a 95th minute header from John Stones to break the deadlock. It added to some creditable efforts against Liverpool, Brighton, Newcastle and Arsenal this season for little reward. After this weekend, the fixture list looks a lot brighter for Gary O'Neil's side.
Overview: The rest from European football, and a young manager with a presence beyond his years, has reinstated Brighton as one of the real threats to the establishment in the league. They should have too much quality in attack for a sometimes brittle Wolves defence.
Prediction: Brighton to win at $1.60.
MANCHESTER CITY v SOUTHAMPTON
History: Mostly one-way traffic City's way as one would expect. The last time Southampton won at the Etihad was 2004. The Saints' last season in the top-flight (22/23) saw them lose twice by an aggregate of 8-1.
Form: Although running second, one off the lead, and undefeated through eight rounds, this has hardly been a vintage set of performances by the four-time champions. Since Round 3 they haven't won a game by more than a goal, including last weekend's Houdini job at Wolves. A big midweek Champions League win over Sparta Prague will boost the confidence.
Southampton dominated Leicester at home and looked set for their first win of the season until a late, late capitulation. On a positive note, the Foxes only managed three shots on target the entire game; alas, it resulted in three goals. No shortage of enthusiasm in this squad, but a big shortage of Premier League quality players.
Overview: Nothing to say other than the obvious. This should be straightforward for Man City who have not lost in the league since Villa beat them in December. That is a run of 31 games, the fourth longest in EPL history.
Prediction: Manchester City to win at $1.12.
EVERTON v FULHAM
History: There aren't too many sides that Fulham have dominated lately, but Everton is one of them. In the last three seasons, the Cottagers have won three of the six encounters, and strangely they have all been at Goodison. Since a win over Fulham in November 2022, the Toffees have scored just once in five games.
Form: After losing their first four matches and conceding 13 goals along the way, Everton has now gone four without defeat and been breached just twice. Their effort to beat Ipswich 2-0 at Ipswich was full of merit. They constantly menaced the Tractor Boys and Pickford wasn't troubled too often. Their fixture list in December is horrendous so they need to keep picking up points between now and then.
Fulham came away with nothing against Villa last weekend but there was little between the sides except for the scoreline. Andersen's dismissal extinguished any hope of a comeback from 2-1 down. Silva's side has achieved results in every game against sides in the bottom half of the table so they should go to Merseyside with a degree of confidence.
Overview: Weight of history suggests this will be tough for the home side. I doubt there will be many goals scored in what promises to be a close one.
Prediction: Draw at $3.40.
CHELSEA v NEWCASTLE
History: Not a great deal between these two in recent times. The glaring stat is a lack of draws – just two in the last 24 meetings. Last season the home side won each encounter, with five goals scored in each game.
Form: After a stellar September, Chelsea has stuttered a little of late. A draw at home to the underrated Forest then a 2-1 loss at Anfield isn't cause for alarm, but if they want a top four finish they need to get things back on track. A trip to Greece on Thursday for the Conference League might see a chance for some squad rotation.
Not a great month for the Magpies who have picked up just two points in their last four matches. To be fair they probably deserved something from their 1-0 loss at home to Brighton, but the worry is they have not found the net from open play in the past three games.
Overview: These two meet again midweek in the Carabao Cup. Two sides without a win in October so it's an important game, for confidence as much as table position. Chelsea belted six past Wolves three days after a Thursday European fixture so the back-up is no concern. They should pack too many guns.
Prediction: Chelsea to win at $1.80.
CRYSTAL PALACE v TOTTENHAM
History: A nightmare meeting for Palace fans. The last 18 EPL clashes has seen Spurs win 15 with two drawn, including a double last season.
Form: Things go from bad to worse for Palace. A third straight loss last weekend at Forest sees them rooted in the bottom three. After the flurry of goals to end the 23/24 campaign, it has been desolate this season – just five in eight games. The Eagles haven't conceded more than twice in a game which keeps them involved, but they need Nketiah, Eze and Mateta to start firing quick smart.
Tottenham overcame a slow start to belt West Ham last weekend, putting aside their poor capitulation at Brighton a fortnight earlier. That made it five wins from six in all competitions and, unlike today's opponent, they know where the net is – 19 goals in their last six in all competitions. A home Conference League fixture against Dutch side Alkmaar on Thursday is the only distraction.
Overview: Palace has too many good players to be where they are on the table, and one suspects they will snap out of it sooner or later. But history tells us that it won't be happening against this cross-town rival.
Prediction: Tottenham to win at $1.85.
WEST HAM v MANCHESTER UTD
History: The Hammers have turned things around a little of late, winning twice without conceding in the 2023 calendar year only for Man U to bounce back 3-0 at Old Trafford in February.
Form: The promise of better things to come after a 4-1 win over Ipswich evaporated for West Ham last weekend when the were beaten by the same scoreline against a rampant Spurs. Things started well for the home side and they were one up after 18 minutes and could have been two. But from the half-hour mark it was all Spurs, and the Hammers' weak midfield was exposed yet again. The London Stadium is not proving too daunting for visiting sides either.
Man Utd is doing just enough to keep Ten Hag in a job. The 3-0 embarrassment at home to Spurs is in fact their only defeat in eight in all competitions. A draw at Villa and a comeback win against Brentford is decent form and while they are a million miles off the top handful of sides, things are looking a little brighter. The only loss on the road this season was at Brighton and it was a late decider, so perhaps away from 75,000 sets of eyes at home they feel more comfortable.
Overview: West Ham cannot seem to gain any momentum, within games and in the season as a whole. Few of the talented squad are performing as well as they can. Man U has a long trip to Turkey for a Thursday night Europe League engagement. West Ham's season must start now.
Prediction: Draw at $3.75.
ARSENAL v LIVERPOOL
History: After a long period of Liverpool domination, the last two seasons have seen some better results for the Gunners, with two wins and two draws from those four encounters.
Form: Once again Arsenal faced a significant portion of a match with ten men last weekend. It finally caught up with them at Bournemouth and consigned Arteta's side to its first loss of the campaign. It also saw them slip four adrift of Liverpool which adds gravitas to this meeting. Key injuries are also a factor. A less than convincing Champions League win at home to Shakhtar added to supporters' concerns.
Liverpool passed its first serious test of the season with a well-deserved win over Chelsea at Anfield last weekend. The bedrock is defence, with just five goals conceded in 12 games in all competitions. They travelled to Leipzig on Wednesday and grabbed a vital three points in the Champions League. It's been a dream start for Slot and a positive result at the Emirates will raise his stocks further.
Overview: This is a huge game for Arsenal. They need to put some average results and ill-discipline behind them or else they could slip right out of the title race with a loss against this key rival. If they can't get up for a visit by Liverpool they never will. Not expecting too many goals.
Prediction: Draw at $3.25.
SUGGESTED WAGERS
Brentford to lead at halftime and fulltime: 2 units at $2.65.
Tottenham to win: 3 units at $1.85.