3 minute read
Australian Derby day was more about the support races than the Blue Riband feature itself as far as high Timeform rating performances are concerned.
Photo by Racing and Sports
While many racegoers were pleased to see Melbourne trainer Pat Carey land another major with Ethiopia in the Derby, it was left to unbeaten youngsters Pierro and Atlantic Jewel to produce jaw dropping runs in their respective races.
But first let's look at the G1 Australian Derby and the win by Ethiopia, becoming the first maiden to win the Derby at Randwick since the Tommy Smith trained Silver Sharpe back in 1970 and the first since the Derby was transferred to the Autumn in 1979.
He joins a small but select group of maidens to have won a G1 Derby in recent times, also joining Fire Oak (1990) and Redding (1992) both of whom won the Victoria Derby as maidens.
By 2002 Victoria Derby winner Helenus, Ethiopia came into the Australian Derby largely unexposed having just three race starts prior, his last when second to Highly Recommended in the G2 Alister Clark Stakes (2040m) at Moonee Valley rating to 111.
Last Saturday, Ethiopia was assessed as running to a new Timeform mark of 121 narrowly defeating Tulloch Stakes winner Polish Knight and Laser Hawk after making a long searching run from near the tail of the field upon turning for home.
A 121 Timeform rating fits just under the five year average for the race but right in the mid range of possible values suggested by historical race analysis. The final figure was held back slightly by Polish Knight who came off a below par win in the Tulloch Stakes and Laser Hawk who after the race was found to have bone chips in his knee.
It is rare indeed for such a lightly raced three-year-old, yet a maiden to win the Australian Derby in the Autumn as the race comes towards the end of the three-year-old season and most, if not all of the promising stayers have disclosed form by that stage.
However both Ethiopia and Polish Knight who are very lightly raced for stayers have shown rapid improvement in their ratings profiles and should make their presence felt as four-year-olds. Ethiopia in particular promises much more next preparation as he is open to considerable improvement.
Champion juvenile and Golden Slipper winner Pierro maintained his unbeaten run taking an eagerly awaited G1 Sires Produce Stakes clash with Black Caviar's unbeaten half brother All Too Hard.
It was Pierro's first attempt at 1400m and if there was any doubt about him handling the extra distance, it was soon dispelled once Nash Rawiller produced him at the 300m mark where his trademark acceleration put the issue beyond doubt.
Pierro's race time of 1.21:47 broke the great Luskin Star's race record by .03 of a second but maintained the uncanny resemblance between the pair as far as their juvenile careers are concerned.
Pierro joined Luskin Star as the only juveniles to have won the Breeders Plate, Silver Slipper Stakes, Todman Stakes, Golden Slipper Stakes and Sires Produce Stakes. At this juncture the only thing that separates the pair is the fact Pierro remains undefeated, whereas Luskin Star was beaten in the NJC Northern Slipper Stakes in very heavy ground after winning the Silver Slipper Stakes.
Luskin Star also won the Champagne Stakes over 1600m before heading to the Brisbane Winter carnival so it will be interesting to see if Gai Waterhouse commits Pierro to a Champagne Stakes run in a fortnight.
If he was to win the Champagne Stakes, Pierro would become only the sixth juvenile in history to complete the Juvenile Triple Crown comprising the Golden Slipper/Sires Produce Stakes/Champagne Stakes treble joining Baguette (1970), Luskin Star (1977), (Tierce (1991), Burst (1992), and Dance Hero (2004).
Pierro's Sires Produce Stakes win saw his Timeform rating move up to 125, making him the highest rated Juvenile since Dance Hero (also rated 125 after completing the 2YO Triple Crown in 2004).
The value is slightly above the five year winning average Timeform rating for the race and just above the mid range of values suggested by historical race analysis.
The Timefigure calculations also strongly support the final assessment.
Unbeaten Atlantic Jewel resuming from injury didn't let punters down thrashing her rivals in the G2 Sapphire Stakes over 1200m.
It was a most impressive display, appearing to idle over the final 200m with ears pricked and promising more with increased fitness.
Much has been made of comparisons between Atlantic Jewel and Black Caviar mainly through the Mid Summer Music form line, that mare now having finished within four lengths of either galloper at 1200m.
However it should be remembered that the day Mid Summer Music ran third beaten four lengths behind Black Caviar in the Patinack Farm Classic, Black Caviar rated 11 pounds below her best and was later found to be suffering a minor injury that ruled her out of a West Australian campaign.
While Atlantic Jewel did record a race record in the Sapphire running 1.08:96, Master Of Design an upset earlier winner of the G1 T J Smith Stakes went 1.08:83, just 0.12 seconds outside Black Caviar's race record established last year.
Based on the form lines and rating profiles of the Sapphire Stakes runners, Atlantic Jewel was assessed to have run to a Timeform rating of 126+, just two pounds under her master rating of 128+ in the Wakeful Stakes.
It is now likely Atlantic Jewel will tackle either the G2 Emancipation Stakes over 1600m or the G1 All Aged Stakes over 1400m at her next start in Sydney (weather permitting) before a spell and a Cox Plate campaign in the Spring.
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