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Leading trainer Peter Snowden claimed his third G3 Up And Coming Stakes at Warwick Farm last Saturday courtesy of the lightly raced Redoute’s Choice colt Albrecht.
Photo by Racing and Sports
Snowden had previously won the feature with accomplished three-year-olds Blackball in 2010 and Rarefied in 2009 and although Albrecht’s win rated below that pair, he does look to have considerable scope for improvement.
Timeform assessed Albrecht running to a 108p rating compared to 111 for Blackball and 113 for Rarefied. However with just three race starts under his belt, Albrecht appears to have more to give but he will need to find extra as he now heads to tougher spring assignments.
The overall quality of the 2012 Renewal was below par for the race with the 108p Timeform rating falling some seven pounds below the five year winning average for the race.
Historical race analysis also supported a figure of 108 which sat just under the mid range of possible values for the race.
Pre race ratings profiles for placegetters Toydini and Tatra also locked the race in around the 108 rating mark.
In recent years the G1 Golden Rose and the lead ups to that race have left the Up And Coming field somewhat depleted class wise, a fact that is again evidenced by the low rating 2012 renewal.
The Golden Rose was first run in 2003 and interestingly the last winner to rate 120 or higher was Snitzel in 2005 at 121.
Prior to that, seven of the last nine previous Up And Coming Stakes winners all rated higher than 120 with the honour for the highest Timeform rated winner in the last 25 years being shared by Fastnet Rock and Our Maizcay both on 123.
Since the introduction of the G1 Golden Rose, the average winning Timeform rating for the race has decreased by a conservative seven pounds.
All the same, the Up And Coming Stakes has managed to produce three Golden Rose Stakes winners since 2003, Court Command in 2006, Duporth in 2008 and Manawanui in 2011. Interestingly they have all come through lower than average rating Up And Coming Stakes taking Timeform ratings of 116, 117 and 115 from the race into the Golden Rose.
While Albrecht is progressive, this analysis clearly illustrates the task that lies ahead for the colt.
Runner up Toydini Timeform rated 113 is another progressive type who came into the race with residual fitness from his Brisbane winter campaign but caught the eye with a fast closing effort from near last on the home turn.
In Brisbane he finished creditable fourths in both the QTC Sires’ Produce Stakes over 1400m and T J Smith Stakes over 1600m so there is little doubt he will be better suited by longer distances this campaign.