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No one could begrudge Lloyd Williams, patriarch of the Team Williams thoroughbred racing empire, a fourth win the 152nd running of the $6 million iconic Melbourne Cup over 3200m with former European galloper Green Moon.
Photo by Racing and Sports
Williams had previously won the Cup with Just A Dash (1981), What A Nuisance (1985) and Efficient (2007), reportedly having had around 60 Cup runners to date.
No single owner in Australian racing history would have outlaid more than Williams on purchasing unraced or tried potential stayers, a fascination that started with the great New Zealand sire of stayers Zabeel but now very much wedded to northern hemisphere staying sires Montjeu and Galileo.
Williams freely admits the experiment to purchase superior stayers from Europe in the 1980’s to win the Melbourne Cup was less than successful but like all things practice makes perfect. The strategy now very much focussing on acquiring promising 2000m to 2400m staying types rather than the 3000m plus stayers originally purchased, Green Moon being a product of the new strategy change.
Pre race the 2012 Melbourne Cup renewal profiled as one of the strongest in the last 25 years, an assessment as we will see was confirmed by post race analysis.
Again the Cup had a significant international participation with eight of the 24 runner field prepared by overseas stables; 18 of the 24 bred in the northern hemisphere. The field for the 2011 renewal contained 11 overseas-trained runners and 16 northern hemisphere bred runners.
The strength of the 2012 renewal is best gauged as follows. The race contained 13 runners Timeform rated 120 and above while the 2011 renewal contained six runners; 2010 had 14, 2009 (6), 2008 (8), 2007 (3), 2006 (5), 2005 (4), 2004 (8), 2003 (1), 2002 (5), 2001 (6) and 2000 (6).
The 2012 renewal was the first time since 1995 the Cup field contained the previous two renewal winners, that year Vintage Crop (1993) and Jeune (1994) engaged. Both carried 59kgs and finished third and 15th respectively.
While in another piece of history for the 2012 renewal; it is probably the first time ever that the last two Cup renewal quinella pairs (Dunaden/Red Cadeaux 2011) and (Americain/Maluckyday 2010) have ever contested the race.
Like the 1995 renewal, Dunaden (59kgs) and American (58kgs) were both beaten finishing 14th and 11th respectively, thereby ending the French domination of the Cup, for the time being at least.
In assessing the merit of the Cup a range of factors were considered, all singly pointing to a Timeform rating of 124 for Green Moon, a new master rating up by two pounds on his Turnbull Stakes victory figure.
The ratings profiles of the runners going into the race under pinned a 124 value as did the historical race analysis that suggested exactly a 124 Timeform rating for the Cup, as did the five year average winning Timeform rating.
At that level, Green Moon is one of the highest Timeform rated Cup winners in the last 25 years, 2005 winner Makybe Diva still sitting atop all winners in the same period with a Timeform rating of 129.
Another interesting fact about the Cup is the race and sectional time. While the overall race time of 3.20:45 was not fast, the last 600m of 34.07 seconds was astonishing – the quickest for the Cup since sectional times were introduced in 1997.
That part of the race not only clearly illustrates Green Moon’s superior turn of foot but also says much about some of the beaten runners, in the main the overseas challengers who could not cope with that speed after a very slow early tempo. But I will come to that later.
Under a cloud all week for a possible Cup start following his unplaced run as favourite in the Cox Plate ten days prior, Green Moon was much better suited under Cup handicap conditions.
At his start prior he took out the G1 Turnbull Stakes over 2000m at Flemington from stable mate Seville and joined previous Cup winners Makybe Diva (2005) and Let’s Elope (1991) as the last three gallopers to take the Cup double.
Only lightly raced, Green Moon has now won four races from 12 Australian starts but has continued to thrive down under as his ratings profile shows.
Coming on top of some useful form in the UK that has since been franked, for example the defeat of 2012 World Cup winner Monterosso in a Newbury Handicap in 2010; last season Green Moon won the G3 Newcastle Gold Cup (2300m) in a tough front running performance then followed that up with an equally impressive second in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) behind Southern Speed.
One run in the Autumn yielded a devastating fresh up victory in the G2 Blamey Stakes over 1600m at Flemington before being spelled for a Spring campaign focussing on the Cox Plate – Melbourne Cup double.
While the Cox Plate did not go to plan, the Cup did, streaking to the front around 300m from home winning comfortably on the line.
Green Moon was given a great ride by champion Australian rider Brett Prebble now riding in Hong Kong. Prebble positioned Green Moon behind the speed in a leisurely run affair and produced him after turning for home.
The turn of foot displayed in his Blamey Stakes win was again evident, putting a couple of lengths on his rivals very quickly, a decisive move that proved a winning one by Prebble, the entire holding out Fiorente and Jakkalberry.
Former bad boy turned champion rider Brett Prebble was having his tenth Cup ride, a quest that started back in 1995 when unplaced on Daacha.
After the race it was revealed Prebble had knocked back the ride on 2007 winner Efficient for Williams after the galloper’s poor showing in the Cox Plate that year. Not keen to miss out again, Prebble immediately saw similarities in the form profiles of both runners and was not about to let another Cup winner slip through.
Runner up Fiorente, a “parachute” horse for the Gai Waterhouse stable after a last minute purchase by stable clients to secure a Cup berth, was sensational.
Formerly trained by Sir Michael Stoute, Fiorente was purchased after his last appearance when fresh up in the Prix Foy (2400m) at Longchamp where he finished a distant fourth to classy Japanese galloper Orfevre, Meandre and Joshua Tree.
That is good raw form in itself but significantly this fellow normally takes the first start in each preparation before he reaches something like his best form. In his only two previous campaigns to date, his second up runs have yielded a win and a second placing but now we can add a second in the Melbourne Cup.
Two starts back, Fiorente scored an impressive win in the G2 Princess Of Wales’s Stakes (2414m) on slow ground at Newmarket defeating a strong field including Joshua Tree and last year’s Cup runner up Red Cadeaux beaten almost five lengths at level weights.
Fiorente came to Australia with a Timeform rating of 123, but significantly he improved on that by a pound in the Cup, a clear sign this fellow can measure up to the best class over ground in Australia.
Fiorente carried blinkers for the first time in the Cup and also suffered interference during the race adding further merit to the effort.
Third placed Jakkalberry was strong at the end confirming the World Cup form line where he finished third to Monterosso.
Lexus Handicap winner Kelinni was again sound running to that form while the biggest “hard luck” story came from Mount Athos.
Trainer by Luca Cumani who has come close to winning the Cup twice previously with narrow seconds (Purple Moon 2007 and Bauer 2008) was pinning his hopes on this galloper. With a Timeform rating of 123+ he is the highest rated runner Cumani has bought here.
Prior to the 700m mark, Cumani must have been on good terms with himself. Champion UK rider Ryan Moore had avoided trouble on Mount Athos and given him a perfect run to that point.
However just then a shift came from the inside that caused Mount Athos to check and lose balance. Then no sooner had he recovered from that then he was more severely checked just on the point of the home turn and taken wide.
I believe there is no doubt, notwithstanding the slow tempo, that had he avoided both incidents Mount Athos would have gone close to winning. As it was he has run to a Timeform rating of 120, just three pounds under his current master figure.
The second of Gai Waterhouse’s runners was beaten Caulfield Cup favourite Glencadam Gold who preformed more creditably on this occasion taking sixth placing but importantly running to his Metropolitan winning rating of 119. This effort and the two recent runs by Kelinni confirm the high rating placed on the 2012 Metropolitan.
American was not the same horse that contested the Caulfield Cup with glue on shoes being a clear sign pre race that all was not well with the 2010 Cup winner.
Outstanding Caulfield Cup winner Dunaden was not able to get into the race with 59kgs the way it was run. The task that confronted him in last 800m was just too great plus history was proven correct again regarding horses that have carry 58kgs or more in the Cup.
Tuesday’s race was another fascinating renewal of the Melbourne Cup that further enhanced its reputation on the world stage, especially now that beaten runners like Jakkalberry, Mount Athos, My Quest For Peace, Dunaden are all heading towards International group one races like the Japan Cap and Hong Kong Vase in the weeks ahead.
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