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Keith Melrose goes through a bumper weekend of action from Britain, Ireland and France.
There was so much top-notch racing at the weekend that there’s only room here to deal with the cause, none of the effect. My colleague Tony McFadden has analysed what the trials and revelations in France, Ireland and Yorkshire mean for the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe in less than three weeks’ time.
For my part I’ll be starting with the St Leger, which of the weekend’s biggest races was closest to being an end in itself. It granted Kingston Hill a classic at the last opportunity after he’d tried and failed in the Guineas and Derby. The St Leger looks easy enough to assess, with the best four horses in the race coming home in what you’d imagine to be their order of ability. As such, we’re happy with a performance rating of 123 for the winner. This ultimately means little change from a ratings perspective, only runner-up Romsdal improving his Master Rating (121 from 119) among the principals, though fifth-placed Marzocco hinted that he could be a future Cup horse with his performance, which raises him to 116+.
We should make time for a quick word on Kingston Hill’s season overall. He has finished eighth in a 2000 Guineas that looks better by the week (see Charm Spirit later); run second only to Australia in the Derby, showing form 1 lb below the average rating for a recent winner of that race; and won a St Leger of better-than-average depth. He arguably deserves status above that of a 'mere' St Leger winner, in the company of Arctic Cosmos, Mastery and the like. He may even achieve it if he goes on to contest an Arc that’s currently very much in flux. But that is wavering a bit too close to Tony's territory.
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Dispatches from Doncaster could run to an article in themselves. We’ll keep it as brief as possible. Performance of the week, arguably ahead of even Kingston Hill, came in a handicap. Those who saw Muthmir win the Portland won’t be surprised to learn that he was responsible.
It is of course difficult to pin down exactly what Muthmir achieved given he came through more scrapes than Hercules, though our calculations raise a bare performance of 117 to a rating of 124. There is also a p attached, based on Muthmir’s trajectory and status as a still-unexposed sprinter. 124p. That will take him to Group 1s, straight away if connections fancy.
Among the two-year-olds, Estidhkaar created the big news in winning the Champagne Stakes, though a fairly muddling race means his rating is nothing new: he remains on 114p. The May Hill and Flying Childers offered a little more from a ratings standpoint. Agnes Stewart, winner of the May Hill, boosted form from Leopardstown that was already looking strong. She goes to 107p, which will justify her place in any of the best seven-furlong or mile races for juvenile fillies this autumn.
In the Flying Childers, winner Beacon (104, unchanged) is passed over in favour of Cotai Glory, who had been set to win handsomely before hanging badly right and eventually losing jockey George Baker close home. That of course brings its own caveat, though a rating of 113, which errs towards the conservative in crediting Cotai Glory with a two-length victory, puts him firmly in the picture for something like the Cornwallis, speed evidently being his main attribute.
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We look west now to cover Irish Champions Weekend, split between Leopardstown and the Curragh. The former on Saturday provided more to talk about, though perhaps not for the races you’d think.
We can probably whizz through the Irish Champion Stakes. Tony will discuss its relevance to the Arc imminently and Michael Williamson will no doubt mention it prominently when he writes his case for the canonisation of Ryan Moore, but in terms of ratings it told us only a little. The Grey Gatsby’s effort under a clinical Moore sees him go up by 1 lb to 128. Australia, who should have won and is duly marked above the result, stays on 132 but has his p downgraded to a + in reflection of the fact that, though he may yet show better form, he has probably stopped improving.
There was a performance of similar merit in a Group 3 earlier on the card. Free Eagle had been favourite for this year’s Derby at one point and will surely go in search of a Group 1 sooner or later after thumping up-to-scratch rivals by seven lengths on his belated reappearance. He’s been kept in the Champion Stakes, wisely on this evidence as his rating of 128p puts him within striking distance of everything in that race, Australia (132+) and Cirrus des Aigles (130) included. The Champion Stakes is now shaping up as even better than the Arc I’m not supposed to mention.
The Irish St Leger matched its British counterpart in terms of form achieved. Brown Panther is awarded a career-high rating of 123 for his emphatic win. Without wishing to take anything away from the likeable winner, the six-and-a-half-length margin owes plenty to a collectively lax moment from other jockeys and there certainly won’t be that distance between Brown Panther and runner-up Leading Light (126) another day.
We finish our Irish round-up with a look at the juveniles. Again, grading proved something of a red herring, for despite Gleneagles (112p) and Cursory Glance (115p, unchanged) taking the National Stakes and Moyglare Stud respectively, much of the discussion involves Group 3 winner John F Kennedy.
We all know that Aidan O’Brien is one of racing’s most entrenched creatures of habit and as such it’s probably no coincidence that the well-regarded John F Kennedy was pointed at this race 12 months after Australia. As in 2013 the faith was repaid, John F Kennedy beating proven Group performer Tombelaine by more than three lengths to earn a figure of 116p. We don’t know if John F Kennedy will run again this year, though Australia was deemed to have done enough for the season after winning this race and he was seen next in the Guineas, before which he was rated exactly 116p.
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As Longchamp’s Sunday meeting was billed as Arc Trials Day, it shouldn’t come as a surprise to learn that most of the races were a means to an end. It’s therefore over to Tony to pick through the significance of the races, though a run-down from a ratings perspective is still appropriate.
The revelation of the card was Ectot, who returned from a five-month absence to win the Prix Niel. Strictly on bare form he remains with something to find in the Arc, now rated 123p after his impressively-earned lead had closed to a neck by the line.
Neither Baltic Baroness nor Pomology is likely to make an impact on the big day, though their respective reputations received another boost as they fought out the finish in the Vermeille. Both are now rated 121 and can be expected to feature in subsequent Group 1s, at least against their own sex. Another weak performance by Treve in the same race sees her lose the + on her rating. She will defend her title in the Arc rated 128.
The Prix Foy saw a winning return for Ruler of The World (ran close to his 128 rating) and a satisfactory one too given he saw off a high-class rival in Flintshire (125). With another nervous glance towards Tony, I’ll venture to say that, all things being equal, a 128 horse holds better than a 16/1 chance in most Arcs, let alone this year's merry-go-round of uncertainty.
The Prix du Moulin stands out as a Group 1 in its own right and offered a further advertisement of the quality of three-year-olds this year. Charm Spirit (127) got the better of Toronado (127) in a driving finish thrown into confusion by the seemingly credible observation that Ryan Moore might have misjudged the winning post on third-placed Night of Thunder (127). Be that as it may, the facts of the case are that these three colts are all high-class, albeit high-class fodder for Kingman (133p) if he is able to return to the track this autumn.