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The last week provided more than the usual number of handicapping head-scratchers. The following explains what Timeform made of some of the major performances.
All other things being equal, the bigger the field the more confident a handicapper is likely to be about his post-race assessment. Studies show that approximately 60% of horses run six pounds or more below form on the Flat. It follows that - in general - the chance of a misleading result, in which few if any horses give their running, increases as the number of runners decreases.
The last week had more than the usual number of races that are open to a wide range of interpretations, notably the main event, the Betfair King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot.
Five went to post and just four returned, following a fatal injury to one of the chief contenders, Rewilding. Of those that completed, the out-of-form Debussy was eased almost to a walk while the favourite Workforce hung across the track and was later found to have been struck into. It is in this context that any assessments need to be viewed.
The winner, Nathaniel, had scope to be rated higher than his pre-race 122, while the third, St Nicholas Abbey, had been 2 lb below his rating of 128 when snatching a win out of the fire in the Coronation Cup at Epsom.
Were the race to be run again under similar circumstances, it seems reasonable to think that Nathaniel should be preferred to that rival, but by how much is difficult to quantify.
One possible approach is provided by something called positional handicapping, the basic concept of which is that it is often much easier to rank horses in a correct order of merit than to be sure of the precise differences between them. It is more subjective than ideal, but results sometimes demand a high level of subjective interpretation.
The upshot of all this is that Nathaniel has been raised to a rating of 127 after Saturday's race - 1 lb ahead of St Nicholas Abbey's new mark - though Timeform is certainly willing to concede that that rating could be either higher or lower.
It marks down Nathaniel as a few pounds below par for a winner of the race, and a few pounds below the level likely to be required to win the Arc, but already 4 lb ahead of a standard St Leger winner. Workforce has been left on a rating of 133.
The Group 3 Princess Margaret Juddmonte Stakes earlier on the Ascot card also looked muddling, with a 100/1 shot close in third. Angels Will Fall's bare form was unexceptional, but she's been given extra and her new rating of 108p puts her close behind the best of the two-year-old fillies.
One who could arguably be described in such terms is Remember Alexander, who followed in some illustrious hoofprints by winning the Group 3 Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown earlier in the week. The Teofilo half-sister to Memory is now rated 107p, but this was another small-field event with a bigger than usual margin of assessment error.
Famous Name (Group 3 Meld Stakes at Leopardstown) and Twice Over (Group 2 York Stakes) also accounted for just a handful of rivals, though in their cases we knew plenty about what they were capable of from previous efforts. They remain on 126 and 128 respectively, with Twice Over having to run to just 123 in this contest.
It would take a lot to make up for the loss of Rewilding, but Godolphin went a small way to that with success for It's Tricky in the Grade 1 TVG Coaching Club American Oaks on day two of the popular Saratoga meeting. The three-year-old filly remains on 121 (runner-up Plum Pretty 120) and should be a major contender come the Breeders' Cup.
The same can be said of turf horse Acclamation (rated 125 after success in Del Mar's Grade 1 Eddie Read Handicap), while Overdriven went to the top of the US two-year-old tree with a convincing victory in the Grade 2 Sanford Stakes at Saratoga, resulting in a rating of 117p.