3 minute read
Five days of Glorious Goodwood as well as some top-class foreign action kept our handicappers very busy this week. David Johnson highlights the latest movers and shakers.
With Frankel's Sussex Stakes having already come under the microscope, the most noteworthy performance elsewhere at the meeting came in the Stewards' Cup, in which Hoof It put up one of the handicap performances of all time in defying top weight of 10-0, and a BHA mark of 111. Hoof It earns a figure of 128+ for defeating Tax Free by two and a half lengths, putting him second to only Dream Ahead (129) amongst the current crop of sprinters.
A figure of 128 would have won the last six renewals of the Nunthorpe and Sprint Cup, and Hoof It is well up to winning at the highest level. Hopefully, connections will stump up the cash to supplement him for at least one of them.
In his King George analysis last week, Simon Rowlands explained how steadily-run, small-field conditions races can be the most difficult to rate with confidence. By that logic, the complete opposite, a well-run, large-field handicap should therefore be one of the most straightforward.
Far less subjectivity is required when it comes to rating races like the Stewards' Cup, past results showing that standardisation performs with a high degree of accuracy. It is this process which forms the basis for Hoof It's new figure.
The Nassau was weakened by the withdrawal of Misty For Me, but it still looked a strong renewal. Midday managed to win for the third successive year without having to reproduce her best form.
She was awarded a figure of 122 with both Snow Fairy and Crystal Capella below their best. A steady pace and the proximity of Principal Role, who is at least going the right way and earned a new best figure off 116, rather limit the view that can be taken.
Masamah put himself in line for a crack at the Nunthorpe with his win in the Audi Stakes, improving some more to earn a new rating of 121. His victory was a reminder how, at times, circumstances as much as ability play a big part in sprints, for he was well suited by how things panned out. In his favour at York will be an excellent course record, three from three over the Nunthorpe course and distance.
The highlight on Thursday was the Goodwood Cup - an open renewal without Fame And Glory - and it was the runner-up from Royal Ascot, Opinion Poll, who took advantage.
It's debatable whether Opinion Poll would have held on had his stable companion and runner-up Lost In The Moment enjoyed a trouble-free run. Lost In The Moment ran to a bare rating of 118+, but has been raised to a master rating of 120. He's going to look very well treated in the Ebor off his old mark and was rightly promoted to favouritism for that contest.
Friday's Glorious Stakes winner Drunken Sailor could also have a valuable staying handicap on his agenda, but, in his case, it's likely to be the Melbourne Cup. He failed to make the cut last year but should do this time around, and he'll go there with an upwardly-mobile profile.
By reversing Hardwicke form with Harris Tweed, Drunken Sailor was raised to a mark of 122, and, as a strong traveller with a turn of foot, he has the attributes to acquit himself well in the Australian contest.
Strong Suit confirmed himself very much back on track when winning the Lennox Stakes on the first day. He continues to look mostly about speed, and it could be that 6f/7f suits him ideally. A performance rating of 120+ and a new master rating of 124 puts him behind only Dream Ahead in his own age group at those distances.
Hannon and Hughes were also amongst the winners with the juveniles. Chandlery did not need to improve on his 107 rating to win the Vintage Stakes, but Harbour Watch again created an excellent impression in maintaining his unbeaten record in the Richmond.
A bare figure of 113+ for the latter is garnered from a standard range of 111-115 and has second and third, Bannock and Caspar Netscher, running to a similar level as previously. Harbour Watch was value for extra over the bare result, and his master rating of 118p makes him the best juvenile seen so far.
Goldikova got back to winning ways in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild at Deauville on Sunday, running to a figure of 123+. This is below her master rating of 129 but came with more comfort than might be implied by the narrow margin of victory.