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The story arc of the jumps season was arrested at around 15:07 on Saturday, just after Mr Mole won the Game Spirit.
The latest weekend is normally one of the most indicative when it comes to jostling for pre-Festival positions and that it doesn’t feel that way this time has to do with more than just the announcement that AP McCoy will be exiting the National Hunt stage come April.
The biggest revelation over the weekend was an emergent talent for the Gold Cup, which came just over half an hour before the weekend’s biggest news broke. There were shades of the younger McCoy in how Richard Johnson rode Coneygree to victory in the Denman Chase. Crucially, his partner was willing and ran out an impressive winner in the end.
For beating the reliable, high-class Houblon des Obeaux by seven lengths in receipt of just 1 lb, Coneygree has been rated 159p. That’s pushing Gold Cup standard and, though connections must be aware he won’t get an uncontested lead as on Saturday, the temptation to go for the biggest prize of all must be very strong. If anything, we’ve been a little cautious with Coneygree’s rating, so a price of 12/1 non-runner-no-bet is about fair.
Rarely has the post-race news differed so vastly from pre-race talking points than in the case of Mr Mole’s Game Spirit. Sticking strictly to the horses, Sire de Grugy left the race with even more questions to answer than there had been beforehand. He was already off the bridle when hitting four out and getting rid of Jamie Moore at the next. The chances are he wouldn’t have beaten Mr Mole (163+) and therefore he’s been pulled down slightly, to 170.
Winner Mr Mole was comfortable in the end and clearly has an engine worthy of championship races. His 163+ rating puts him firmly in the Champion Chase picture, more so than prices of 10/1 might imply if form were the overwhelming consideration. Still, there were obvious signs on Saturday, when he whipped round at the start and lost plenty of ground, that the quirky Mr Mole has been figured out rather than cured. In among all the commotion, it shouldn’t be underplayed how deft McCoy was in getting the best out of him in the circumstances.
The Betfair Hurdle, being a handicap, gets only a minor mention here even though it’s billed as the biggest race on the Super Saturday card. For the second year in a row, the race left the feeling that the most interesting horses were behind the winner. That’s not to discount Violet Dancer (142), who’s clearly an improving horse to go off so hard and yet repel so many good handicappers. It’s more that some others- like Activial (147p), Calipto (140+) and Arzal (134p) to nominate three- didn’t get anything like the same opportunity to show what they can do. Expect spring festival winners to come from the race. Activial for one has Coral Cup favourite written all over him.
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Warwick’s supporting card on Saturday provided what could prove to be a supporting cast. That’s only by a quirk of chance, though, as impressive feature-race winners Vibrato Valtat (155p) and Glens Melody (150) are both up to the standard of their respective Festival targets, the Arkle and David Nicholson. They are just unfortunate to have Un de Sceaux (168p) and Annie Power (163) blocking their paths.
The revelation on the card could prove to be Camping Ground, winner of the handicap chase later on the card from a BHA mark of 145. That effort, his first for promising handler Robert Walford since arriving from France, gives him a rating of 150p. He’s currently not in the betting for the Festival Plate (it will no longer be the Byrne Group Plate, apparently): don’t expect him to be introduced at lengthy odds once the entries come out.
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Leopardstown’s Hennessy card on Sunday followed the weekend’s script, in that AP McCoy retained the headlines in lifting Carlingford Lough to success in the feature. That performance was a career-best for the horse (162) and he’s more progressive than 17 starts over fences would suggest, but he’ll have to stay on that trajectory to feature in the Gold Cup.
Besides the winner there wasn’t much to cover in the Hennessy from a ratings perspective. Runner-up Foxrock was stepping up in grade but improved by only 1 lb on the day, to 161. He can get better still, but the small jump he’s had to make to go from handicapper to Grade 1 contender tells us plenty about the Irish staying chasers.
To touch on the wider picture of staying chasers: connections of Silviniaco Conti (176) must be irked at the repeated assertions that this is an open Gold Cup. With all of the major trials now out of the way, he’s 11 lb clear on Timeform ratings of those likely to run against him. The seemingly received wisdom that this Gold Cup is up for grabs gets only as far as assuming he’s not capable of his best around Cheltenham. If that proves to be the case, it is admittedly as open a Gold Cup as we’ve seen since 2006.
Most of the other Grade 1s from Leopardstown are projected to have a middling to minor effect on the spring festivals. Petite Parisienne (139p) dented Kalkir’s (145) reputation in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle, while the PJ Moriarty was also a good result for Gigginstown for all Apache Stronghold (151) beat their hope Valseur Lido (153p). The runner-up shaped best in the race, while Don Poli (154p), arguably Gigginstown’s best novice this year, had Apache Stronghold comfortably held when they met over Christmas.
The race that could have a wider impact is the Deloitte Novice Hurdle, won last year by Vautour and the year before by Champagne Fever. Nichols Canyon defied the Mullins pecking order, making all in a good time and doing some fairly heavy damage to stablemate Alvisio Ville’s substantial reputation in the process. On the form of the race itself Nichols Canyon has been rated 146p, but as the p implies it’s easy to see him doing better on a bigger stage next time. He’d only ever be the second string behind Douvan (156P) in the Supreme but would probably stay the trip in the more open Neptune, for which he’s now contesting favouritism with Parlour Games (146).