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There is an understandable tendency to write off races won by unconsidered outsiders as “flukes”, but there are good reasons not to do so with this year’s Investec-sponsored Oaks at Epsom.
At 50/1, Qualify was the co-longest-priced winner in the classic’s 237-year history, and she would have gone off even bigger but for support from some shrewdies who saw something in her form that most of us did not see.
Three successive unplaced runs going into the race were preceded by a Group 3 win as a two-year-old. Recapturing that form would not be enough, but improving upon it by a few lengths at the much longer distance of The Oaks proved to be sufficient. Just.
Sectional analysis shows that the 2015 Investec Oaks – part of the Fillies and Mares category of the QIPCO British Champion Series – was not the most truly-run race, but that the best two fillies probably came to the fore.
The opening stages of the race were on the steady side. The leader got to the path at the end of the gruelling first half mile after about 58.9s when 58.0s would have been par given the conditions (a difference of about six lengths).
Thereafter, however, the pace was truer. Those finishing speed %s (horse’s closing speed compared to its average speed for race overall) from the crossing entering the straight may seem remarkably high, but they should be viewed in the context of Epsom’s roller-coaster course and a largely downhill finish.
Par for a mile and a half at Epsom is around 111%. The principals finished quicker than that, but not by a great deal, and the sectional upgrades are of a few pounds rather than more. Qualify and Legatissimo finished fastest of all and get the biggest mark-ups.
In that particular context The Investec Oaks of 2015 produced the “right” result, however unexpected it might have been, but sectionals should be one part of race analysis (an important part), not the final word.
It was a rough race in the home straight, and a number of the runners were better than the result, if probably not greatly so. Fillies like Jack Naylor and Star of Seville might not have stayed; Crystal Zvezda gave herself little chance by pulling hard in that steady early section; Jazzi Top was always up against it after a slow start.
Qualify’s calculated closing sectional of 38.87s is one of the faster ones among Oaks winners: fractionally faster than Taghrooda’s 38.95s a year before but comfortably slower than Dancing Rain’s 37.7s in 2011 (a notably tactical race which turned into a sprint). Kazzia ran as slowly as 45.8s in a soft-ground Oaks in 2002.
Qualify’s overall and sectional times are indicative of a smart filly, showing sustained speed, but it also reflects the state of the ground, which, by Timeform’s reckoning, was near-perfect (once allowance has been made for a small amount of dolling out to the course).
The Investec Derby is to be run on the inner line, without the additional 14 yards of the Investec Oaks that might have made the difference between Qualify’s success and Legatissimo’s short-head defeat. Barring rain, conditions should dry out in the 24 hours between the two races.
A time 2 to 3 seconds faster than Qualify’s 2min 37.41s seems on the cards for the colts, but that will depend in no small part on how quickly they go. Timeform’s Sectional Debrief will be back with a full analysis of the great race after the event.