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Since the Lanzarote was upgraded to listed status in 2013, the race has been won by Oscara Dara, Saphir du Rheu and Tea For Two, the last pair both Grade 1 winners since.
Young horses on upward curves are clearly what’s called for here—as in most handicaps—and it’s no surprise that the ante-post betting has zoned in on such types, with Ibis du Rheu, Westren Warrior (watch your spelling and pronunciation!) and Bivouac very much in that mould.
Ibis du Rheu is, as his name suggests, a half-brother to Saphir du Rheu. Ibis du Rheu has clearly been difficult to train, running just four times since his debut in France in March 2014, but he showed much more of what he's about fitted with a hood/tongue strap when a head second to Royal Guardsman in a 19f handicap at Newbury on his reappearance. This longer trip will see him in an even better light too, but he does have to prove he can back that effort up, while it’s no secret his yard (Paul Nicholls) are quieter than normal at present; there’s not much juice in his price of 6/1.
The other two are perhaps more interesting. Bivouac was a useful juvenile last term, sent off favourite when third behind Beltor and All Yours on his final start, and he got firmly back on track on his second start back (dropped 5 lb for his return) when winning a handicap over the extended 19f at Huntingdon in November by a length from Ruacana. Bivouac has been raised 7 lb but he looks the type to step up again in big-field handicaps this season, and the extra 1½f here should prove within his compass.
Westren Warrior made a successful debut over 3m at Sligo in August and was then bought by Dr Richard Newland for £42,000. He had a fair-looking BHA mark of 121 before his latest 30-length success in a novice at Lingfield, and the official handicapper might have been lenient raising him just 6 lb for that win (improved by around 10 lb on Timeform ratings). Granted that form is hard to judge, with four of his six rivals pulled up, but Westren Warrior did look every inch a very useful performer as he justified short odds, and his proven stamina and ability to handle bad ground (raced exclusively on softer than good) should count for plenty here.
Similar comments regards distance and conditions apply to Unowhatimeanharry who has had more racing than the three already discussed but is perhaps no more exposed given he’s been rejuvenated by the switch to the Harry Fry stable (as was predicted in Timeform’s Fifty To Follow), winning all three starts this term. He’s now 15 lb higher than when winning his last handicap at Newbury in November, but that’s only fair given he progressed again to win a Grade 2 novice over 3m at Cheltenham last time, and he’s undoubtedly open to further improvement.
Baron Alco hasn't had to improve so much as most who complete a handicap hat-trick but he still keeps doing enough, winning by less than a length from Simply A Legend over C&D on Boxing Day, and even another 7 lb rise may not prevent him running another big race. That said, he’s not certain to confirm the form with Simply A Legend given Simply A Legend came from much further back than Baron Alco and meets him on 1 lb better weight terms here.
Philip Hobbs has saddled the runner-up twice in the last four years, as well as the fourth last year, and his Brother Tedd has a chance given he followed his defeat of Silviniaco Conti in a C&D handicap with good third of six to Rock On Ruby in the Coral Hurdle. He’ll almost certainly need to improve again to defy a mark of 153, however (9 lb higher than for his last win).
The puzzle is made more difficult by four interesting entries from Ireland: Blue Hell, Vive La France and Pistol Park from the Alan Fleming yard and Buiseness Sivola representing Willie Mullins. It’s near impossible to know which, if any, are going to make the journey across, though the fact Fleming has entered three suggests he’s going to have at least one runner. It’s probably best to weight for the declarations before assessing their claims in depth (the Fleming trio are all near the bottom of the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings but probably possess the potential to do better).
This is a hard race to have a strong view on at this stage, with no real chinks apparent in the armour of those near the top of the betting and the running plans of the Irish raiders not concrete. With (more) rain forecast to hit Kempton from Thursday to Saturday, preference just goes Westren Warrior who also tops the Timeform ratings and very likely has more to offer after just four runs.
Recommendation:
Back Westren Warrior in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle