3 minute read

Tomorrow's meeting at Ascot presents a good challenge for punters, with close to half the card dominated by odds-on favourites.

Under these circumstances, a majority tend to steer away from these gallopers in a hope of finding more "Value".

A flawed statement in essence, as while on some occasions they can be under the odds, these odds-on favourites can also prove good "Value" at their short quote.

For instance in race two on the weekend, the best price available for the Daniel Harrison trained Sheidel is $1.50.

At her current quote she is expected to win the event 66 times out of 100, or 16.5 out of 25, but is this actually a true reflection of her chances?

Using Timeform weight adjusted ratings, Sheidel rates 11 pounds clear of her nearest rival — more notably the fact she also won by five lengths last start, suggests she has room to move on this figure.

If priced aggressively, we can get Sheidel as short as $1.20 - though $1.30 appears a more accurate assessment.

In the current market place, we have her rated 10% more likely of victory and hence good value at her current quote.

Although playing the short end of the market, a 10% difference is a significant overlay, given it equates to getting 6-4 about an even money shot or 100-1 about a 8-1 chance.

Level staking will obviously not equate to the same profits, however if you bet to win a certain amount, long term in theory these above bets will net the some profit.

You will have to lay out more money betting at the top end of the market, but in essence you are more likely to win and in theory will win more often.

The same can be said about Delicacy in the W.A. Oaks, as while her current quote of $1.40 appears short enough, we again have her rated short of that mark, at $1.20.

Both gallopers present good overlays and are more than worthy of a gamble.

Also happy to stick with the Grant Williams trained Battle Hero, as while giving weight away to all his rivals, he still appears well placed using Timeform predictive ratings.

He has continued to raise the bar with each performance to date and is clearly heading in the right direction.

Battle Hero is one of two last start winners in the event and given the two main market dangers - Tonto and Say Geronimo, are combined 15 runs between wins, he is worth sticking with.

Currently installed a 6-4 chance appears more than fair, as if priced aggressively we have Battle Hero installed a $1.80 chance.

BET OF THE DAY (1): Race 2 #5 Sheidel @ $1.50 all up Race 5 #1 Delicacy @ $1.40

BET OF THE DAY (2): Race 6 #1 Battle Hero @ $2.50