3 minute read

Timeform's Chief Correspondent shares his views on the closing day of York's 2014 Ebor Festival...

It's exam results time, when students have a nervous wait to see if they've done enough to get that place they've worked towards all year, if not their whole life. Some sail, some fail, and some inhale, holding their breath for last-minute confirmation as it hangs in the balance. If you listen carefully, you can hear the sigh of relief from Mighty Yar, who has scraped in, number 20 of 20, to give him a shot at the big time in the Ebor.

Frankie Dettori won it in 2012, Lady Cecil won it in 2013, and they join forces this year with Mighty Yar, who's had Ebor written all over him for a long time. The reason he had to sweat to make the cut is exactly the reason to fancy him now he's snuck in: he hasn't yet achieved all he's going to, and such a profile is a rare and precious commodity in the top-end handicaps these days.

The key to unlocking Mighty Yar's latent potential lies in the Ebor trip, not himself on his only previous try (after nine-month absence) but on every other start this year shaping as if it's exactly what he wants, especially last time, at York, when second to improving three-year-old Kings Fete, with subsequent-winner Whispering Warrior back in third. This could well be graduation day for Mighty Yar.

Earlier on the card, at 2.40, comes the three-year-old version of the Ebor, the Melrose Stakes, a race in which the half-brother of Mighty Yar's dam, effectively uncle Kasthari, was beaten a short head way back in 2002. The three that stand out in the latest edition are Connecticut, Captain Morley and Adventure Seeker.

Jamie Spencer, who was second only to Ian Botham for a surprise announcement this week, stating his intention to quit riding at the end of the year, is aboard Captain Morley, who's arguably the most interesting of all, given his record of development. It's not only the pattern of his form but also the strength of it, his latest third coming in one of the best three-year-old handicaps of the season, at Royal Ascot, and Captain Morley gives the impression the extra distance at York will be in his favour.

Another who looks set to run well is Moonraker in the Roses Stakes (4.25), a horse all about speed in a race all about speed. Finishing seventh of eight in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood doesn't begin to tell the full story of Moonraker's latest start, as that day, over six furlongs, he tried to match this season's star two-year-old, Ivawood, and inevitably paid the price in the end. On his debut at Ascot, at the minimum trip, he beat Thursday's sales race winner Mubtaghaa, and, dropping back in grade and trip here, Moonraker looks something for Jaws and everyone else to get their teeth into.

It's a similar case for Royal Mezyan in the sprint handicap at 5.35: a very fast horse turned into a very tired horse by the sixth furlong on his latest start, but back at his right trip today. That was also Royal Mezyan's first start of the year, and it's literally a good bet that, ever since then, William Haggas - amongst the winners at York this week - will have had this in mind for him.

The thriving Farraaj has the opening Strensall Stakes at his mercy, no getting rich from backing him, but there's more than one way to skin a cat and selecting Graphic to do best of the rest looks the right move. Farraaj is in a class of his own in form terms, but Graphic is as good as any of the rest and his adeptness in small fields makes him the most likely to follow him home.