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Golden Slipper analysis, best bets and selections for all races from Chris Scholtz for the Rosehill meeting on March 23 plus eligible Trial Watch and Blackbook runners.
ROSEHILL March 23
GOLDEN SLIPPER ANALYSIS
IS there a rival capable of beating the dominant favourite Storm Boy? If you regard the betting market as a reliable guide the obvious conclusion is Storm Boy has only one serious challenger.
The unbeaten (1) STORM BOY has been the benchmark all season and there is no reason to drop off him now from his perfect gate. He smashed the clock winning the MM Classic at the Gold Coast, making him the highest rating winner of that race since 2015 with a figure good enough to win all but one of the last 10 Golden Slippers. He subsequently regressed but still did all that was required to win the Skyline at Randwick off a 49-day break where he again showed he has the elite ability to absorb pressure at high speed and go up a gear when required - attributes that win Golden Slippers. If he runs to his MM rating or better the others are playing for the minor prizemoney.
(7) SWITZERLAND also is unbeaten and returned a better figure than Storm Boy's Skyline Stakes rating when he won the Todman Stakes against a hot field of colts in his final lead-up at Randwick. The feature was his strong final 200m in fast time but he will need to rise to a new peak to get over the top of STORM BOY if the favourite runs to his projected figure.
(8) BODYGUARD won twice in Melbourne before a setback forced him to miss the Blue Diamond. After a month between runs he was below peak fitness when fourth behind SWITZERLAND in the Todman, a race that stands out as the highest rating Sydney lead up. His profile points to him being one of the strongest over the last 200m. (6) STRAIGHT CHARGE beat stablemate (17) ESPIONAGE in the Silver Slipper Stakes over 1100m at Rosehill and then didn't shirk it when a game second in the Todman. He is a natural runner with the speed to make his own luck from his middle draw but is going to have plenty of early company for the lead with his fast stablemates (2) FULLY LIT and (3) SHANGRI LA EXPRESS coming from lower gates.
Apart from Storm Boy seven-time Slipper winner Gai Waterhouse and her training partner Adrian Bott have another six final acceptors - Straight Charge, Prost, Espionage, Fully Lit Shangri La Express and the filly Lady Of Camelot. Waterhouse trained the Slipper trifecta in 2001.
(12) PROST, second in the Breeders Plate at the start of the season, was also second to STORM BOY in the Skyline Stakes while (3) SHANGRI LA EXPRESS has been the bunny in the Pierro Plate and Todman Stakes as the leader before finishing in the placings behind SWITZERLAND in both races. They are form lines worthy of a place in the Slipper but there is a considerable ratings gap between them and STORM BOY.
Likewise (2) FULLY LIT was unbeaten before his second to Slipper rival (11) HOLMES A COURT in Canberra's Black Opal Stakes, a race that has dropped away over the last 20 years as a worthy Slipper guide with only one winner (Catbird - 1999) completing the double in more than 50 years.
Fillies have an excellent record in the Golden Slipper and while there are only four this year they are a strong quartet led by the Blue Diamond winner (13) HAYASUGI and runner-up (14) LADY OF CAMELOT. Sweet Embrace Stakes winner (15) MANAAL and (16) ENEEZA, fourth in the Blue Diamond, make up the quartet. While their ratings don't match the top colts their 2kg weight advantage should never be discounted as its been enough to see 13 fillies win and another 24 fill placings in the Golden Slipper since 2000.
LADY OF CAMELOT has the tactical speed to exploit her soft draw and an impressive trial win at Hawkesbury confirmed that she has gone ahead since she was caught on the line at Caulfield by HAYASUGI. The Blue Diamond is often discounted as a Slipper guide despite five youngsters having won both races including two fillies. Admittedly it has been a drought as Sepoy in 2011 is the only winner of the double since 1989 but this year the Blue Diamond is a significant form reference as it provides seven Slipper runners with subsequent results showing it to be a race of some depth.
(5) TRAFFIC WARDEN, eighth to finish in the Blue Diamond, has since won the G2 VRC Sires Produce over 1400m at Flemington while (9) DUBLIN DOWN and (10) COLEMAN finished first and third in last Saturday's Pago Pago Stakes (1200m) at Rosehill after missing the top 10 at Caulfield. It must be noted TRAFFIC WARDEN's Flemington win only adds more quality to STORM BOY's form lines as he finished a well held second behind the Slipper favourite when making his debut at Rosehill in December before heading south.
The barrier draw always play a part in Slipper reckoning and while an outside gate isn't ideal it's not the end of the world either. The rails gate has been the source of the most winners (10) in the Slipper's 67-year history but some 22 winners (33 percent) have come from gates 10-16. Barrier 13 remains the winless exception.
With fine weather since Thursday the track will border between a Good (4) and Soft (5). A rail shift from the true position to 2 metres should see a similar finishing pattern to last Saturday of horses avoiding the inside 2-3 lanes as the day progresses.
TOP SIX: (1 STORM BOY; (7) SWITZERLAND; (8) BODYGUARD; (6) STRAIGHT CHARGE; (14) LADY OF CAMELOT; (13) HAYASUGI
Best Bets
RACE 6 - (1) RIFF ROCKET: Victoria Derby winner returns home for his first Sydney start since he finished second over 1800m at this course in the spring. Showed a great turn of foot off a fast pace to win the G3 CS Hayes at Flemington first-up under 59.5kg over 1400m but was outsprinted to the line at the same course when coming from midfield for third in the G1 Australian Guineas (1600m) on March 2. Boasts two wins and two seconds from his four starts beyond 1600m and is primed to stamp his class on this field.
RACE 7 - (16) MILITARIZE: Top class 3YO beat his own age in the G1 Golden Rose over 1400m at this course in the spring and is ready to rise to that level again after two excellent placings since resuming. Fangirl sprinted too quickly for him first-up in the Apollo Stakes (1400m) before he was beaten a nose by Celestial Legend in an epic Randwick Guineas (1600m) on March 9. Rates to win under the WFA scale in a field where the 3YOs will play a big hand against few genuine older winning chances.
RACE 9 - (5) AFT CABIN: Classy G2 winner found 1000m too short in his first start for nine months when a luckless third behind Passive Aggressive and Zapateo in the G2 Challenge Stakes (1000m) at Randwick where he conceded 2kg to the first pair under the WFA conditions. Weights are in his favour this time dropping 3.5kg and he'll be a lot more comfortable tracking the fast pace over this extra trip.
Selections
RACE 1: (17) TENDERIZE; (3) Wrathful; (16) Kingston Charm; (1) Elettrica
RACE 2: (4) POST IMPRESSION; (1) Stockman; (5) Almania; (7) So United
RACE 3: (7) LITTLE MIX; (1) Thalassophile; (13) Yankee Hussel; (5) Osmose
RACE 4: (8) ROBRICK: (7) Don Corleone; (2) Brave Mead; (6) Schwarz
RACE 5: (7) PLAC DU CARROUSEL; (3) Buckaroo; (1) Think It Over; (6) Via SIstina
RACE 6: (1) RIFF ROCKET; (3) Tom Kitten; (5) King Colorado; (7) Immediacy
RACE 7: (16) MILITARIZE; (15) Lady Laguna; (1) Think About It; (17) Veight
RACE 8: (1) STORM BOY; (7) Switzerland; (8) Bodyguard; (14) Lady Of Camelot
RACE 9: (5) AFT CABIN; (11) Sunshine In Paris; (10) Passive Aggressive; (13) Ozzmosis
RACE 10: (11) TASHI; (4) C'Est Magique; (6) Wee Nessy; (3) Olentia
Why They Can Win….
RACE 1 - (17) TENDERIZE; Fitter with improvement to come third up. Finds a suitable race.
RACE 2 - (4) POST IMPRESSION: UK form has him favourite for the Sydney Cup. Should have this field covered.
RACE 3 - (7) LITTLE MIX: Well placed to improve third up. She got better as distances increased last prep.
RACE 4 - (8) ROBRICK: Rates highly on Melbourne form. Will appreciate expected strong pace.
RACE 5 - (7) PLACE DU CARROUSEL: Have to respect the imports. Her G1 form matches Via Sistina.
RACE 10 - (11) TASHI: Tough mare improves with every start. Ready to graduate to this class.
TRIAL WATCH REPORT
NOTED TRIAL RUNNERS – March 21-23
ROSEHILL SATURDAY: Kaizad (R4); The Novelist (R4); Schwarz (R4); Buckaroo (R5); Lady Of Camelot (R8); Sunshine In Paris (R9); Ozzmosis (R9); King's Gambit (R9); Overriding (R10)
MOONEE VALLEY SATURDAY: Growing Empire (R2); I Am Me (R8); Platinum Jubilee (R9)
KEMBLA GRANGE SATURDAY: Star Act (R5)
TAREE TUESDAY: Rum Diary
RECENT TRIAL WATCH WINNERS: Left Field; Commemorative; Canamble; Empress Of Japan; Red Card; Cassiel; Hallet; Holmes A Court; Short Shorts; Infancy; Rustic Steel; Briasa; Phearson; Storm Boy; Mr Midnight; Territory Express; Wembanyama; Shadows Of Love; Straight Charge; Gatsby's; Linebacker; Martial Music; Dagon
TRIAL POINTERS
WARWICK FARM March 12: BUCKAROO finished strongly for second in the fastest 1208m heat (73.33; 34.77), working to the line under a good hold. It was the type of trial you would expect from an import of his class, showing he had trained on nicely from his first-up effort when he had no luck in the G1 Verry Elleegant at Randwick. Expect him to be a player in any Group race he contests over the carnival. The classy prospect SCHWARZ – a winner at Flemington during Cup Week at just his third start - had his third trial in the last six weeks, finishing an unextended third in the fastest 798m heat (46.21; 33.38) after tracking five and six wide from the 500m. His work indicates he is ready to go to the races. His strong heat was won by the fast runner THE NOVELIST with his stablemate KAIZAD, winner of the Carbine Club Stakes at Flemington, working well within himself for a soft second. Written By colt THE NOVELIST, off the scene since he won his first two starts in 2022, returned with a similar sharp trial win at Warwick Farm last month and is set to resume in a suitable short course sprint.
HAWKESBURY March 11: LADY OF CAMELOT was back from her Blue Diamond Stakes second and stamped her class on her 800m heat (46.72; 33.34) with an electric turn of foot to win running away by almost three lengths. Blake Shinn allowed her to settle behind two leaders before calling on her extend at the 200m with the response immediate. Her fast sprint to the line was a perfect prep for the Golden Slipper. Other stars to impress with easy work in their open heats over 1000m included SUNSHINE IN PARIS.
RANDWICK March 7: High class mare I AM ME is primed for a big first-up performance after a classy win in the fastest 1045m heat (61.99; 33.64). Pulled her way to the front after 400m and was three lengths clear on the turn under a big hold from Blake Shinn. Under no pressure to maintain her advantage to the finish and loved the way she kept working strongly for 150m past the post. OZZMOSIS was given easy work in his 1045m heat (62.38; 33.55), leading under a big hold before Platinum Jubilee was put under a ride over the last 200m to run him down on the line. He could have won the heat by a margin if asked with this hitout topping him off for his pending return after his earlier impressive trials. KING'S GAMBIT bounced back from his Oakleigh Plate flop when resuming to win his 1045m heat in slower time (63.11; 33.59). He was last early but was keen to run with Tommy Berry allowing him to slip forward three wide from the 800m and breeze home over the last 200m.
ROSEHILL March 1: A lovely first-up trial by top class mare SUNSHINE IN PARIS in her first appearance since she won the G2 Sheraco Stakes in the early spring. No intent to put her under pressure as she went about her business finishing a soft fifth in a strong 900m heat (54.72; 34.33). No doubt she will improve lengths with the benefit of this trial.
WARWICK FARM February 26: An open heat over 805m was won by the unbeaten 3YO colt THE NOVELIST (47.12; 33.57). It was a pleasing return as he has had obvious issues since he won his first two starts as a 2YO in late 2022 including a G3 in Brisbane.
RANDWICK February 22: Young sprint star OZZMOSIS is set to add to his reputation after nice work to win his Group trial over 850m on the Kensington track with ease. Dylan Gibbons allowed the Zoustar colt to do as much as he needed to hold an advantage over his rivals over the last 200m (49.91; 33.56).
RANDWICK February 7: Zoustar 3YO SCHWARZ is a real talent as he showed jumping quickly in class to win two of his first three starts. He travelled three wide in his 742m heat before putting the trial to bed in the fastest time over the distance (42.73; 33.06) in his first trial since he won at Flemington in November. He's heading for Group races.
BLACKBOOK REPORT
ELIGIBLE BLACKBOOK RUNNERS – March 23-24
ROSEHILL SATURDAY: Elettrica (R1); Wrathful (R1); Canberra Legend (R2); Yankee Hussel (R3); Don Corleone (R4); Buckaroo (R5); Riff Rocket; (R6); Tom Kitten (R6); King Colorado (R6); Ceolwulf (R6); New Energy (R7); Aft Cabin (R9); Call Di (R10)
MOONEE VALLEY SATURDAY: Strawberry Rock (R3); Roll On High (R5); Vivy Air (R6); Basilinna (R7); Moesha (R9)
EAGLE FARM SATURDAY: Quothquan (R3); Pentito (R3); Wairere Falls (R9)
MORPHETTVILLE SATURDAY: Vivy Air (R6)
BAIRNSDALE SUNDAY: Aberfeldie Boy (R7)
RECENT BLACKBOOK WINNERS: Fearless; Commemorative; Illative; Etna Rosso; Pasima; Sir Atlas; Territory Express; Dolphin Skin; Cadetship; Celestial Legend; Gently Rolled; Dark Journey; Our Maryanne; Pereille; Glory Daze; Ceerseven; Cradle Of Life; Our Kobison; Caballus; Bermadez; Nana's Wish
BLACKBOOKERS – Selected March 9
(Follow for next 3 starts)
CIRCLE OF FIRE; DETONATOR JACK; MAYFAIR SPIRIT; TANNHAUSER; TERRA MATER; WILLINGA FREEFALL
