3 minute read
The 3YO Hill Smith Stakes (1800m) headlines an open nice-race card at Morphettville on Saturday.
In what sets up as a competitive day of racing at Morphettville on Saturday, we keep our powder dry early and hope to make a big impression late.
For the best of the day, we head to the penultimate race (8) where I'm keen on Zebella from the Phillip Stokes yard.
The crafty five-year-old mare has returned in career best order this campaign and looks well-placed to continue on her merry way.
Zebella went like a rocket here fresh when scoring by a long neck and posting a career peak of 92 on the Racing and Sports. The Zebedee mare then went to a new level again last start when beaten a lip at Flemington in a BM78, recording a rating of 100.
Her last start rating is several pounds clear of any of his rivals' peaks, and with a return to a favoured track and trip I expect her to be making a short-awaited return to the winner's circle.
As for a value play, combining for a total of 994 days without a salute, there's two earlier in the card I think can run boldly at long odds and it's Howl and The Gov, both in race six (6).
Starting with Howl.
The seven-year-old has always lacked early dash but on his day has a lethal turn of foot. While we have seen glimpses of his closing speed this campaign, he hasn't had the greatest of luck, most notably going to the line all smothered up last start. Undoubtedly heading back from the draw again, he relishes this track and trip, and his peak ratings are no far cry from the more favoured runners. If close enough at the turn and with even luck, he can give them a good scare late in the piece.
Now to the outsider of the field, The Gov.
While we are yet to see the best of the seven-year-old this prep, she's going better than her form reads. Like Howl, the best version of The Gov matches the top pick's peaks. This well-raced daughter of Super One has plenty of form around a lot of this field, beating home a few of them more than once, and now gets a significant weight pull aided by 2kg claimer Alana Livesey piloting. She looks well over the odds.
Say From SA
Best: Race 8 #4 Zebella @ $3.20
Value: Race 6 #6 Howl @ $19/4.40 & #10 The Gov @ $51/11
