Markets are volatile, meaning they are open to dramatic changes in the blink of an eye.
In racing, markets can fluctuate based on how a course is playing in terms of leader/swooper bias or the state of the track (firm or rain affected). A storm might hit Flemington on Melbourne Cup day as it did in 2004 and Makybe Diva became a better chance so a shorter price.
Form lines for a race can be franked by an earlier winner or at the same time, flop.
Future racing markets possess even greater volatility after big performances and/or bad results providing a bookmaker a liability. Notification of a horse’s campaign path might change to include or exclude a race offered in futures betting.
Their performances in lead up events prior could have a bearing on their price. Horses under an injury/illness setback or coming out from one of those clouds can also be the subject of strong market moves.
Sports markets are also fast moving.
Markets change based on form, results, weather, injuries and suspensions before they are played and also within matches.
Someone like Tom Brady might get injured and so the chances of the team he played for, the New England Patriots, would be greatly diminished and hence the price lengthened.
Paying attention to breaking news is important as are late adjustments to markets for such things.
Let’s use an injury to a key player as an example.
| Options | Sharks | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Pre Injury Odds | $2.45 | $1.60 |
| Post Injury Odds | $2.10 | $1.80 |
The Cowboys held favouritism for the upcoming match at $1.60 however the announcement their star player will be absent from the game has resulted in a change to the market.
Their price has or will be wound out to $1.80 by most bookmakers while the Sharks have firmed into $2.10.
By anticipating the market alteration, a smart punter can take the $2.45 about the Sharks.
They can confirm themselves a profit via a number of potential measures.
1. Backing the Sharks early ($2.45) and Cowboys at their altered price ($1.80) when they are eased, provides a competitive arbitrage of 3.76%.
2. Backing the Sharks at $2.45 before laying them back once the market has adjusted at $2.10.
3. Laying the Cowboys at around $1.60 on Betfair before taking the $1.80 on offer about them once the market has been corrected for the injury.
