3 minute read
Racing And Sports form analyst Trent Crebbin provides his race-by-race Caulfield preview, thanks to tab.com.au.
The first day of Winter brings Saturday racing and we head to the heath for a nine-race card at Caulfield. One less event on the program over the coming few months and the fields look quite solid because of it.
No stakes racing but a few good contests with a particularly strong benchmark 100 providing our best bet on the card, all thanks to tab.com.au.
Race 1 - 11:50am: Dexion Victoria Handicap (1100m)
Mellifluent (2) started $1.60 on debut at Canterbury before a spell and while the win was only narrow, the level of support there was telling, with a bit of a gap to third off a genuine tempo. Profiles like a genuine improver. Husk (4) resumed at Sandown-Hillside and proved too strong from on the speed over 1000m to win well. Can roll forward again and prove hard to catch. Blue Renegade (1) was good here on debut at big odds and went on with it at Sandown-Hillside to score last time. Will take catching again. EARTH GOD (6) is a nicely bred colt by Written Tycoon out of a Snitzel winning mare who has won a trial leading in. Must respect. STAY SILENT (7) is a colt by Deep Field on debut who can run well.
Tip: Mellifluent to win at $4.60 with tab.com.au
Race 2 - 12:25pm: Next Payments Handicap (1600m)
Open race. Stylish (3) ran well in the Mornington Guineas two back before going to Adelaide and struggling in a listed race over there, starting $10 but fading. She can bounce back here from an ideal draw against more suitable opposition. Knucklebones (1) beat a subsequent winner first up at Cranbourne before going straight to a mile and struggling behind a smart type here last start. Fitter for that and can improve quickly. My Xanadu (5) comes through the same race and wasn't bad at just her second start. She'll also be much better for that run and will take catching. Ginger Sweet (4) broke through for a narrow maiden win last time and could measure up.
Tip: Leaning to Stylish at $3.90 with tab.com.au
Race 3 - 1:00pm: Vale Rod McQueen (1400m)
Princess Rayaa (6) comes down from NSW having placed in both runs back from a spell, not far away in third last start over 1550m at Randwick Kensington. She's only won 1 from 11 but has placed a further 6 times and looks nicely suited here. Episodic (2) is hard to knock over from Adelaide, winning all three runs this time in. She looks suited up to 1400m and gets D Lane on board. Measures up. Subliminal (1) has won her past two, measuring up to this sort of level at Bendigo last time. Gets a handy 3kg claim from the in-form Jaylah Kennedy which helps. Arqana (11) has been around the mark this time in and drops a level from a sound last run here.
Tip: Princess Rayaa on top at $3.80 with tab.com.au
Race 4 - 1:35pm: Beretta's Langwarrin Hotel Handicap (1100m)
Jewellery (9) looks set to peak here third-up and down from Sydney. She resumed off a 15 month spell and just found a handy type better before another sound effort at Scone when hitting the frame late. Should be at her top and very hard to hold out. Alvarinho (2) resumes and comes over from Tasmania where her form last preparation reads well. She placed in a pair of Group 3 races behind horses that would be highly competitive in a race like this here. Heart Of Glass (10) is a progressive filly who has won 3/4, including both starts this time in. Harder here but looks capable. Luna Cat (3) resumes. She's well up to winning at this level and should be thereabouts. I Choose You (8) looks nicely suited back out to 1100m.
Tip: Jewellery to win at $3.80 with tab.com.au
Race 5 - 2:10pm: GMH Fire & Safety Australia Handicap (1200m)
Is It Me (3) ran well first up at Bendigo before a disappointing effort in the Listed Wangoom at Warrnambool when hard in the market. Can forgive that run and if he finds his best he'd be hard to beat in a race like this. Mars Mission (7) looks nicely placed down from Sydney having run well in both starts this campaign. He won well third up last time in at this level and should be hard to hold out. Beour Bay (9) wasn't far away in a messy finish at G3 level in Adelaide last time. She should get a good run and looks a key chance back in grade. Bellinger (8) is racing very well without winning and drops a grade for this. Can break through. Bews (15) is in the mix.
Tip: Backing Is It Me at $7.50 and Mars Mission at $9 with tab.com.au
Race 6 - 2:45pm Manhari Metals Handicap (1100m)
Wide open. Extremely Lucky (3) might benefit from what looks a hot tempo. He ran on strongly to score at his first start back with his original stable before tackling the G1 Goodwood last time and finding that a bit hot. He'll be back but if they can run on, he can charge late. Curran (2) is in a similar boat. He rarely wins due to his pattern but has run on to be close to better horses than he faces here. Just needs things to go his way. Ashford Street (1) resumed for a new stable and won well here first up. He's a good horse who will take beating again. Keep Reading (6) is a consistent type over from SA who won well first up and can measure up on the minimum. Extreme Flight (9) also won first up and drops in weight. Consider.
Tip: Backing Extremely Lucky at $8 and Curran at $13 with tab.com.au
Race 7 - 3:20pm: Ern Jensen Funerals Mile (1600m)
St Lawrence (7) looks ideally placed here second up. He resumed in a strong Bm100 at Rosehill and boxed on very well for third. Second up last time in he won easily with 61kg, albeit in a Bm78, and he gets in with just 54.5kg here. Maps ideally with D Lane aboard and should go close. Highlights (9) was left with too much late running to do last week as the leader got a very easy lead. With a more positive ride here he'll be hard to beat on the backup. Jimmy The Bear (3) should be ready to peal third up coming off a good placing at G3 level in Adelaide. He's unbeaten at this track and distance. Don't discount First Accused (4) who measured up well here first-up. He's a good horse. Munhamek (1) has to carry plenty of weight but is in the mix.
Tip: Keen on St Lawrence at $2.70 with tab.com.au
Race 8 - 4:00pm: Thoroughbred Club of Australia Handicap (1200m)
Pivot City (2) is a handy colt who won easily two back at Sandown-Hillside before a good effort in the G2 Tobin Bronze at Morphettville, beaten 2.75 lengths in third by a talented filly. Rates highly off that and should prove hard to beat. Shesallshenanigans (1) has been good without winning this time in, beaten just 0.6 lengths at Flemington last time. Out to 1200m now, she'll take catching. Extremely Rowdy (9) was just fair in a bunched finish at G3 level last time but did get a long way back. Might be able to sit closer from the draw this time which will help. Lovely Lookin' (11) comes through the same G3 and was good there without much luck. Don't underestimate. Icarus (17) was a forgive at Flemington, look for improvement.
Tip: Leaning to Pivot City at $6.50 with tab.com.au
Race 9 - 4:35pm: Logical Staffing Solutions Handicap (2000m)
Mirzann (15) has had two runs in Australia and run second in both, working home well last time when supported in betting over 1800m. He'll relish the extra 200m here and any give in the track would also be beneficial. Amberite (14) beat Mirzann last time and did it well. He did start $21 there at his Australian debut but the win is hard to knock and 2000m will be no issue. Trosettee (12) has run second in both runs back from a spell, solid last week over 1600m. He's a winner over this trip and should be set to peak. Gregolimo (1) hasn't really fired in two runs back but his Spring form behind the likes of Muramasa would just about win this. Can improve. Flossing (9) is racing well and should be competitive again.
Tip: Backing Mirzann at $3.80 and Amberite at $5.50 with tab.com.au
CAULFIELD BEST BETS
Bet of the day: Race 7 #7 St Lawrence at $2.70 with tab.com.au
Each-way play: Race 6 #2 Curran at $13.00/$3.70 with tab.com.au
*All odds correct at 2:15pm, 30/5/24
