3 minute read
Romantic Warrior out to crack HK hoodoo in proven guide to spring majors.
Spring Carnival fans have become used to 'overseas' horses heading back home with plenty of Victorian prizemoney.
Since Vintage Crop internationalised the Melbourne Cup in 1993, horses trained in the Northern Hemisphere have won that race nine times, while also having a significant impact on the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate.
But form students don't often have to deal with them running in the Turnbull Stakes.
That changes this year with Hong Kong superstar Romantic Warrior and UK galloper West Wind Blows among the contenders for Victoria's only set-weights-and-penalties at Group 1 level.
This Saturday will be the first time in more than two decades that the Turnbull Stakes will have a runner trained the other side of the equator.
The previous was Helene Vitality, who in 2002 had five runs during the Spring Carnival when prepared by David Hayes, who was then Hong Kong-based.
Helene Vitality finished fourth in the Turnbull Stakes, won by Northerly, which was his best result for the campaign.
He is not the only Hong Kong galloper who has found the Melbourne spring a tough nut to crack.
The only Hong Kong-trained galloper to have won in Melbourne is Cape Of Good Hope, who won the Group 1 William Reid Stakes in February 2005.
It should be noted that no Hong Kong-trained galloper as come to Australia as well-credentialled as Romantic Warrior, who owns a peak Timeform rating of 126.
For reference, the only Turnbull Stakes winners in the past 30 years to have put up a Timeform figure greater than 126 are Winx (133 in 2017) and Hartnell (128 in 2018).
The 2000-metre Turnbull Stakes has been the premier guide to the Spring Carnival majors and not only pre-post markets but also recent history suggests at least one of the Melbourne Cup, Caulfield Cup or Cox Plate is engaged in this year's race.
The first edition run at Group 1 level, 2006, did not produce a winner of one of the majors but 14 of the subsequent 16 have, including the past seven.
Three of the past four Melbourne Cup winners – Gold Trip, Verry Elleegant and Vow And Declare – came through the Turnbull, Incentivise won it the start before winning the 2021 Caulfield Cup, while Winx the Turnbull the start before her final two Cox Plate wins.
Winx is responsible for two of the 11 years that the Turnbull winner has also won the Cox Plate, Incentivise and Verry Elleegant are among 10 horses to have done the Turnbull-Caulfield Cup double, while Green Moon (2012) is the most recent of the five to do the Turnbull-Melbourne Cup double.
Romantic Warrior, the short-priced Turnbull Stakes favourite, also heads Cox Plate betting, while his Turnbull rival Soulcombe is favourite for the Caulfield Cup and second elect for the Melbourne Cup.
Francesco Guardi, West Wind Blows, Gold Trip and Melbourne Cup ballot-exempt runners Lunar Flare and Goldman are among the Cups hopes in this year's Turnbull field of 16 plus two emergencies.
