This Listed Karaka Million 1200m juvenile race for specific Sales registered runners only saw the filly Probabeel embarrass her rivals in a race that was run suicidally up front for the first half of the race in particular. This six-race twilight meeting at Ellerslie, with five of the events at Blacktype, saw Australian breds win half the card ominously on a track presented as Dead4 so the times never got too quick. The winners and where they turned for home in race order were fourth (five-off the fence and half a length from the leader), seventh (on the fence and five lengths from the leader), second (three-off the fence and a neck from the leader), tenth (ten-wide (deepest turning in) and three lengths from the leader), eighth (four-off the fence and three lengths from the leader) and fifth (six-off the fence and half a length from the leader). No leader won all day/twilight strangely as a couple of races were very sedate contests but with this track over-watering they never seem to get it quite right regarding manmade track bias. Probabeel drew the outside gate of fourteen and settled down eleventh and then was tenth across the top before surging widest the run home and picking up and dropping her spent rivals to lead at the 250m. Her turn of foot was impressive and she clocked 1.09.90, which was the best 1200m time all day and that speaks volumes, to score by two and three-quarter lengths. Some balance however has to be shown as she had four stablemates in the race and two of them (Louis Luck and Challa) went absolutely berserk from the outset in front drag racing and the Australian raider Neptunes Spear was three wide and attacking for some inexplicable reason too. Louis Luck stopped like a pricked balloon to finish eleventh beaten almost seventeen lengths while the maiden Challa at $72 stopped ever worse and ran dead last beaten almost double that. Neptunes Spear was ridden by Jonathan Parkes and why it stayed wide attacking for so long defies belief and it finished tenth beaten sixteen lengths. To say this trio ensured the backrunners would dine out and feast at the finish is an understatement and with three wide draws finishing first, second and deadheated for third that seals the argument. Aotea Lad, a stablemate of the winner, settled sixth the outer as the three up front were going stupid emptying each others tanks and he moved closer wide near the home turn to fifth then surged into second at the 200m. He got windburn from the winner but she had 2kg less and he did more work in the running. Yourdeel ran a good third equal after racing midfield and wide and he surged earlier than most to hit the lead at the 350m. He was almost a length behind second at the line and gave trainer Jamie Richards a notable trifecta in the race and it should be noted again he had five runners in the race and the three wide gates ran one, two and third equal. The two other better drawn runners that were the fourth and fifth roughest of the quintet drag raced in front and both stopped badly. Appellant, another filly, came from ninth on settling and kept coming gamely to be fourth at the 100m and then deadheated for third on the line. Beauty Diva, the rank outsider at $110, raced fourth and then was seventh turning for home but boxed on for fifth beaten just under five lengths. Aalalune ran on very well for a maiden from last to finish sixth beaten five lengths and the filly has run in each start so far at Listed and G3 level. She would be odds on back to all maidens and is a winner in waiting and should be a force next season over the mile or more. Whiskey Neat the ruling favourite and a natural leader began awkwardly and then had to use some energy just to get up fifth and it mattered. The race caller when you watch the replay staggeringly says the race was a 'perfect dispatch' but that is simply not true and sheer predetermined piffle. Visually it is exposed and the official stipes report also demolishes the falsehood by saying not one or two but three runners were away awkwardly namely the clear favourite Whiskey Neat plus Blackrocksdetox and Exuberant, so it matters. Two other runners were in fact a tad tardy as well but not in the stipes report too worryingly namely Appellant (that deadheated for third) and Aalaalune (that came from last for a super sixth) so it really matters. Watch the replay yourself and see the reality but a race can never be a perfect start when the hotpot misses away, let alone four other runners, especially when it is a natural on pacer and leader as that is a standard no one should never ever accept. Whiskey Neat however was weak the run home and his bubble has well and truly burst plus at 1200m in sub 1:10 he seems suspect but until he leads up or races close from the outset as usual one cannot be absolutely sure. Blackrocksdetox ran on okay late from second last turning for home and should make a very nice 3yo plus he might still run at 1400m and a mile this season. Exuberant plugged on from twelfth turning for home but that being in the last five away saw her race done early though the winner was part of that quintet away albeit by design. Neptune's Speak was a gutbuster and total forget but it is a long way to come from Australia for a 2yo to be ridden like he was sitting wide attacking for the leads for so long and it must still grate on connections. Louis Luck was gassed being part of the drag racing trio from the outset while Tappy's One and Flaunting were outclassed and Challa was gassed beyond belief. The seven inside gates ran nowhere today showing the mad trio burning early for so long were a million to one each after just 400m using up that much energy and to think they were still at it across the top to near the home turn is mindboggling. Probabeel after such a dominant win in good time for the days/twilight racing was given a provisional Timeform rating of 107+ and that is very high and significant as the plus means she is likely to reach a bigger number with upside galore. The Karaka Million is open only to some Sales specific runners and New Zealand has two G1 juvenile races each season with both coming in the Autumn, so they are yet to have taken place. For some comparison only Bounding (110) after a Listed win is higher at this stage and then the likes of Dowager Queen was 106 after a Listed win and Super Easy and Manolo Blahnig were 106 too. Bounding would finish second in one of the two G1 juvenile races in New Zealand and win six more times including the G1 Railway in New Zealand and a G3 in Australia. She would also finish second at G2 behind Chautauqua (it was his fourth win this day and he would go on to win nine more races with six of them coming at G1). Super Easy was runner up in a Listed race and the winner, the filly Anabandana was given 104 but she won both G1 juvenile races later that season and attained a 110 figure then. Super Easy went to Singapore and won twelve races in a row then two more and was G1 placed third in the Krisflyer behind the Hong Kong powerhouse Lucky Nine. Dowager Queen was placed in one of the two G1 NZ 2yo races and would win once more only in Australia but also be placed at G1 twice (VRC Oaks behind Mosheen and Flight Stakes behind Streama). Manolo Blahniq would win three more times in Australia including once at Listed level earlier this month. Probabeel on this provisional rating is a G1 winner in waiting at least once if kept racing in New Zealand and could well do something not done in Australia before. Yes she was massively assisted by the crazy trio up front of which two were her stablemates but she put a gap on her other not gassed early rivals so quickly. Winners galore will come out of this race as many are bred to be milers or middle distance types and were running because the allure of a million dollar race was too hard to turn down. This should be the highest rated Karaka Million field ever and results should continue to both confirm that and embellish it. Probabeel should be put up as a clear favourite now to win the G1 1000 Guineas next Spring as a 3yo filly, if a wagering platform able to put up and take betting this early could operate properly. Connections should try for the holy grail and rather than demolish the two G1 2yo races in New Zealand try for the Golden Slipper. She can run in and win the G1 Sistema (an apt race with the owners of this filly Brendan and Jo Lindsay having sold that plastics container company for $660 million) and they also purchased Cambridge Stud so what a broodmare they have on their hands now. Aim bigger may well be the approach as Probabeel could win that G1 race at Ellerslie and then go for the G1 Golden Slipper and a slice of history two weeks later for the trainer and the owners. The highest Timeform rated Australian 2yo right now is 112 so 107+ is not a bridge too far at all and for a filly on an upward spiral that gap is very closable indeed. The Golden Slipper is the equine Everest for New Zealand trained juveniles as no one has achieved this peak yet but never may not be in the Lindsay vocabulary.