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Sydney’s champion trainer Chris Waller has won most of the feature group one races in Australia however the Coolmore Classic at Rosehill is one that has so far eluded him.
But that could all change today when he sends out talented three-year-old filly Omei Sword to contest the older rivals over the 1500m in testing track conditions.
Waller has saddled up nine previous runners in the Coolmore Classic for just two placings, Catkins (2014) and Red Tracer (2013) but it is fair to say none of his previous runners had promised more than Omei Sword did early in her three-year-old year only to go amiss and be forced to sit out the spring.
After a restricted juvenile career, Omei Sword resumed at three winning the Silver Shadow Stakes before finishing runner up to crack colt Astern in a rating G1 Golden Rose Stakes at Rosehill over 1400m.
Spelled after to be reserved for the Autumn, Omei Sword resumed in the Surround Stakes at Randwick over 1400m a fortnight back, catching the eye with a slashing second, making up many lengths in the closing stages after turning for home in near last position, just failing to reel in talented kiwi filly La Bella Diosa who again opposes today.
Despite the fact that a three-year-old has not won the Coolmore Classic since Typhoon Tracy in 2009, history shows the Surround Stakes is still the most successful lead up race with winners completing the double four times since 1979 and three times from seven attempts in the last 25 years. Meanwhile Surround Stakes placegetters have provided a further five Coolmore Classic winners overall.
Timeform rated 115p, a pound above the five year winning average, Omei Sword on weight adjusted Timeform ratings is the horse to beat. But she will need to do everything right from barrier 19 which has never provided a winner in the last 25 years of the race. But that said two have won from barrier 16 in the last 25 years and if as expected Omei Sword goes back then the barrier might not be a major factor in the outcome.
As always the Coolmore Classic is full of chances with little separating the main chances on Timeform weight adjusted ratings.
Although she has more to find on her Surround Stakes win, New Zealand filly La Bella Diosa looks progressive enough to be given some latitude on that score. The Surround Stakes win was her first run in Australia however she relished the challenge on wet ground powering clear in the straight to score impressively, if not luckily, from Omei Sword whom she meets 2kgs worse at the weights today.
La Bella Diosa is building a nice record with five wins from seven race starts that already includes a group one success in the NZ 1000 Guineas over 1600m.
From her low draw and again favoured by at least a slow racing surface La Bella Diosa again looms as a major contender and will be attempting to become the fifth three-year-old to complete the Surround – Coolmore Classic double since the races’ inception in 1979.
Melbourne visitors Thames Court, Abbey Marie and Silent Sedition add an interesting dimension to the race.
Thames Court has been sparingly raced but has acquitted herself well with three wins from 13 starts – last campaign finishing fourth in the group one Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes behind Bon Aurum.
She has been improved by two runs back from a spell, both in group three company just failing to run down Silent Sedition over 1400m at Caulfield in the Mannerism Stakes last start and running to her peak Timeform rating of 109 in the process.
Thames Court handles wet ground and rates a definite threat.
Silent Sedition who held out Thames Court in the Mannerism Stakes meets that mare just half a kilo worse today but is still on an upward ratings profile running to a new peak Timeform figure of 113 last start.
Weight adjusted figures puts her in the frame again with the major query being no revealed race form in wet ground.
Drawn awkwardly in 18, she will most likely use her speed to come across and aim to give, now Hong Kong based rider Sam Clipperton back to back wins in the race.
Abbey Marie also comes through the Mannerism Stakes but has been taken along quietly this preparation compared to her first campaign that saw her reel off three consecutive victories culminating with the group one South Australian Oaks.
Today she will be third up but will strip fitter for her last run where she was powering to the line over 1400m but like Silent Sedition she has never raced on a wet surface.
Enjoy the race.Timeform Preview – Newmarket Handicap
Three-year-olds have a famously good record in the Newmarket Handicap and while they don’t provide the favourite for this year’s running, that honour going to four-year-old Spieth, they do hold a strong hand through Extreme Choice and Star Turn.
Both Extreme Choice and Star Turn come into the race rated 124 by Timeform. With 52.5kgs on his back Star Turn will carry half a kilo less than Extreme Choice, giving him the slightest of edges at the weights, but of more relevance looks to be the path they have taken into the race.
Here the edge may lay with Extreme Choice who comes through a strongly contested Oakleigh Plate where he powered through the line to finish a closing third after settling a little bit further back than ideal in a fast race.
Star Turn also comes off a Group 1 third but the result came about in a very different manner. Star Turn sat up on a very slow early tempo before being outsprinted in a 600m shoot out.
The closing sectionals in the Lightning were high class but they were entitled to be given the lack of early pressure put onto Group 1 horses.
Over the past 30 years 16 Newmarket winners have come through the Lightning while 12 have come through the Oakleigh Plate. With five runners in the Newmarket the Lightning holds the numerical advantage in 2017 but the two through the Oakleigh Plate might have had the better preparation and that leaves Extreme Choice looking very well placed.
Spieth was denied at the top level by the narrowest of margins for the second time in a row in the Lightning Stakes, and success at the top level is surely within his range, but his racing pattern lends itself to traffic issues.
Much has been made of the weight he has been given for a horse that has yet to win at the top level but he looks very well weighted based on his Timeform rating which has him snapping at the heels of the classy three-year-olds.
Illustrious Lad is the ‘weight horse’ coming through the Lightning, dropping 5.5kgs under handicap conditions and he returns to the scene of his Derby Day win which rates highly.
Illustrious Lad went to a new level back in the spring and his Lightning return said he has come back every bit as good for the second half of the season. Given how well suited he is to the Flemington 1200m he simply must be considered a winning hope.
Timeform Preview - Australian Cup
Darren Weir has been the dominant force in Victorian staying races in recent years but, surprisingly, Prince Of Penzance’s Melbourne Cup remains his only Group 1 success past a mile. Saturday’s Australian Cup promises to change all that.
Weir saddles up three in this year’s Australian Cup, including race favourite Humidor who looks a deserving top pick.
Humidor had to settle for second in the key lead up, the Peter Young at Caulfield, with stablemate Stratum Star too strong on that occasion, but Humidor went to a new peak Timeform rating of 123 there and it’s hard to imagine that he has found his ceiling.
With that in mind, Stratum Star will do well to keep his improving stablemate at bay and Humidor has to be seen as the horse to beat though that key formline.
The United States ran third behind that pair at Caulfield and given that he was just first up there we can expect him to come to Flemington a fitter horse. The Australian Cup is a race that his stable target and a rating of 122 first up from a break has him right on track to run to his 124 peak, a figure that would force Humidor to improve.
Jameka started favourite in the Peter Young and her fourth-placed effort was credible. She did some work early, racing wide, and is another set to peak at Flemington.
She was an eye-catcher first up in a strong Orr Stakes, a clear indication that she has come back in much the same form that saw her win the Caulfield Cup back in the spring where she was rated 121 – a figure that, with her mares allowance in hand, would see her right in the finish of the Australian Cup.
Away from that formline the most interesting runner is the Waterhouse and Bott-trained Ecuador who has been racing in outstanding form over 1400m while giving the impression that a step back up in trip would serve him well.
Ecuador went to a new peak Timeform rating of 122 when winning the Carrington and has backed that figure up with third-placed runs in the Orr and Futurity.
The leap from the Caulfield 1400m to the 2000m Australian Cup isn’t without precedent. 2010 Australian Cup winner Zipping came off a well held effort in the Orr Stakes.