3 minute read
Selections and analysis for Wednesday's (09/10/24) 08-race fixture at Happy Valley.
Race 1: #6 Running Ahead, #1 Go Go Go, #2 Kasa Papa, #7 Right Honourable
Race 2: #2 Speedy Fortune, #1 Parents' Love, #3 Ace Talent, #4 Good View Glory
Race 3: #7 Super Unicorn, #1 Northern Beast, #2 Flying Wrote, #3 Kimberley
Race 4: #1 King Eccellente, #3 Aurora Lady, #5 Unison, #11 Never Peter Out
Race 5: #5 Gallant Valour, #1 High Percentage, #7 Happy Park, #12 Tactical Command
Race 6: #1 Swift Ascend, #9 Talents Supremo, #3 Nebraskan, #2 King Glorioso
Race 7: #12 I Can, #8 Setanta, #3 M Unicorn, #7 Fighting Machine
Race 8: #11 Chateauneuf, #6 Golden Empire, #1 Reward Smile, #5 Super Joy N Fun
Race 1 - LI YUEN HANDICAP
#6 Running Ahead showed promise on his Class 5 debut over this course and distance, closing strongly into fourth despite a wide draw. Moving to barrier 1 here gives his connections an excellent chance to settle closer to the pace and boost his winning chances. #1 Go Go Go has been ultra-consistent, and with Zac Purton staying aboard from barrier 4, it's tough to see him running a bad race. #2 Kasa Papa is one to follow now that he drops into Class 5 for the first time. The booking of Hugh Bowman is a key positive, and despite having excuses in Class 4 after a late-season stable switch to Tony Cruz, he's been performing well. #7 Right Honourable, second-up, signalled that a win could be near with a solid third-place finish. The old boy may still have something to offer here.
Race 2 - MAN CHEUNG HANDICAP
#2 Speedy Fortune could break through as David Eustace's first winner in Hong Kong. While it's a competitive race for Class 5, the horse finished last season in solid form, placing twice at this level on the downgrade. His trials leading into this race have been positive without being fully tested. #1 Parents' Love signalled his readiness with a close second at this course and distance in his first Class 5 run last time out. Zac Purton stays aboard, and a maiden victory seems imminent. #3 Ace Talent also has strong claims, especially with the in-form Caspar Fownes and Hugh Bowman partnership combining. The horse's form is consistent and hard to overlook. #4 Good View Glory was impressive winning at this course and distance two starts ago, but his subsequent run at Sha Tin was below expectations. With the benefit of barrier 1 here, he can bounce back.
Race 3 - MAN YIU HANDICAP
#7 Super Unicorn will be well-fancied as Frankie Lor and Zac Purton team up with this maiden who is overdue for a win. Last time out, he was a luckless runner-up after racing ungenerously and being steadied at a crucial moment. With barrier 1 in his favour, he looks poised to finally break through. #1 Northern Beast has barrier 11 to contend with, but second-up conditions should suit him better than first-up, when he was in need of the run. He also reunites with Hugh Bowman at a track he's had success on. #2 Flying Wrote tries this distance for the first time, but his solid trial form between races suggests he could be a knockout chance. #3 Kimberley has switched to the Danny Shum stable in the off-season and showed improvement in his trials, so a better performance can be expected.
Race 4 - HARBOUR VIEW HANDICAP
#1 King Eccellente returns to Class 4, where his chances tend to be stronger. He's a fit horse after two runs this season and has the advantage of Hugh Bowman taking the reins from a favourable draw in barrier 4. #3 Aurora Lady has been knocking on the door for a win and ran bravely for fourth last time, despite being asked to do too much on the lead. #5 Unison will improve on his second career start here after gaining valuable experience first-up, and barrier 2 will ensure a smooth run. #11 Never Peter Out makes his seasonal return for a new stable, having switched to Frankie Lor's yard. His best effort came late last season, and with barrier 1, he should get a comfortable trip.
Race 5 - THE HKEX CUP (HANDICAP)
#5 Gallant Valour turned in a solid fourth-place effort first-up and will benefit from improved fitness. He reunites with Hugh Bowman and draws well in gate 4, giving him a good chance in this highly competitive race. #1 High Percentage was in stellar form last season, winning two consecutive races by wide margins before a setback. With Zac Purton aboard and barrier 1, he's well-positioned to return to his best provided he is back in good health. #7 Happy Park is showing steady improvement and his strong Sha Tin form could transfer well to his first run at Happy Valley. #12 Tactical Command delivered an impressive first-up run, his best effort yet in Class 4, and he looks capable of continuing to perform in this grade.
Race 6 - HARBOUR VIEW HANDICAP
#1 Swift Ascend presents a strong chance for David Eustace to secure a win, dropping into Class 4 for the first time. His past Class 3 performances should serve him well here. Though first-up after an eight-month break poses a slight query, Zac Purton in the saddle from a low draw in barrier 3 is a positive. #9 Talents Supremo benefits from another good gate in barrier 1, and if he jumps cleanly, he appears an honest chance. #3 Nebraskan, a late-fading fifth first-up, looked in need of the run but was only beaten less than two lengths, making him a fitter proposition this time. #2 King Glorioso drops into Class 4 for the first time and has shown improvement in a recent trial under Hugh Bowman, who rides him on race day. He looks ready to take a step forward.
Race 7 - PEDDER HANDICAP
#12 I Can is presented third-up this week, and a kinder barrier draw in gate 2 works in his favour after drawing no lower than 11 in his last four starts. Despite this, he continues to run well and was beaten by a strong performer last start—he can atone here. #8 Setanta is a backmarker who relies on luck in running, but if he can utilise barrier 1, his winning chances appear strong, especially as he's racing well since his transfer to Mark Newnham's stable. #3 M Unicorn is better suited back at Happy Valley, where his best form has been. Drawing well in barrier 3, he looks poised to figure in the finish. #7 Fighting Machine will be interesting to watch as he steps into Class 3 for the first time after an easy win at the top of Class 4. Zac Purton sticks with him, though barrier 11 may prove tricky.
Race 8 - POTTINGER HANDICAP
#11 Chateauneuf remains relatively unexposed as he steps up in class following a narrow defeat in Class 4. Drawing barrier 1 works in his favour, particularly as many of his main rivals have drawn wide and will require significant early luck. He could just find the necessary favours to secure the win. #6 Golden Empire is a potential knockout chance from barrier 4. Now third-up, he has finished close in both of his runs this campaign and is expected to put in a competitive performance. #1 Reward Smile had a tough task from barrier 11 first-up but finished strongly into second after being held up for much of the straight. A draw in barrier 10 doesn't ease his chances here. #5 Super Joy N Fun is a talented horse with three wins from seven starts and likely hasn't reached his ceiling yet; however, barrier 12 will make it difficult for him to claim victory.
