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The Vaal Inside track stages a low key eight race meeting tomorrow, following the heady excitement at Turffontein on Saturday, and low draws will be favourable by trends.
The highest rated race on the card is an intriguing MR 89 Handicap over 1400m.
Danza is a talented sort, but tends to over race in trips beyond 1200m. Last time he appreciated a fast pace over this trip and went close to upsetting the classy Brazuca. He was well drawn that day, but from a tough draw in this race his best chance, under Gavin Lerena, would appear to be to go to the front.
The progressive three-year-old Refuge ran on from last in his last start over course and distance and got up under Piere Strydom. He is only three points higher now and has a nice galloping weight of 53kg with high-flying S’Manga Khumalo up. He has a high draw, but there looks to be a lot of pace in the race, so he should have an opportunity to find cover.
Trading Profit beat the like of Judicial and French Navy once in a Pinnacle Stakes race over 1800m. He prefers further but ran 6,1 lengths behind Kangaroo Jack over 1450m in the Jo’burg Spring Challenge this season when receiving just 1kg and a repeat of that run off a merit rating now down to 85 will see him finishing thereabouts.
Life Is Good is a robust son of Var, who impressed when winning his maiden over 1200m at Scottsville in August. The form of that race has worked out well and with trainer Neil Bruss now overseas he has joined the Mike Azzie yard. However, he has the highest draw in the eight horse field.
Another former Bruss inmate Go Direct makes his seasonal reappearance for the Geoff Woodruff yard. On the Gold Cup day he only just failed to win the Listed Darley Arabian from start to finish over 1600m on the Greyville poly. He would prefer further, but running fresh could be a threat here from the pole position draw and he might make life tough for Danza by attempting to set the pace.
Imperial Gold has a plum low draw and should be able to sit in behind the pacemakers if the race pans out as predicted. However, this horse has not lived up to expectations, one reason being he just doesn’t seem to go through with his efforts. Off his current 79 merit rating he is battling to get his nose in front, although a 1,5kg up should help.
The second is an intriguing maiden over 1700m. Just Cruised In stayed on over 1600m last time from a tricky draw and now has pole position. Piere Strydom remains aboard and he likely recommended the blinkers which are now on. If they bring any improvement the Just As Well gelding could be the one to beat.
Pilou is a colt by Western Winter, whose stamina range is quite difficult to predict because he is a full-brother to both Bichette and Viva Maria, the first a sprint-miler and the second the 4,5 length start to finish winner of the Gr 1 Woolavington 2000. On debut Pilou ran on strongly over 1200m, but in his second start moved up well over 1450 before staying on only at one pace. However, the latter was understandable as he came from a high draw and he now has a good draw. The prediction is he will stay and overall his form looks just about the strongest here, so he should go close.
Military Award caught the eye in his penultimate start over 1400m when staying on strongly, but then over raced when beaten by Pilou among others over 1450m last time. He is by the miler Brave Tin Soldier out of a Jet Master mare who won twice over a mile, so should stay the trip. He now has a better draw, so if he settles will be a big runner.
Inn A Million stayed on quite well from a wide draw on debut in the R250,000 maiden on Charity Mile day over 1600m and with expected improvement could also be right there from a fair draw. Speed Monitor is quite a talented sort, but tends to over race. A wide draw therefore does not augur well, but he can’t be ignored because he settled well under Raymond Danielson last time out and the latter remains aboard.
The Pick 6 is tough, but a banker must be found somewhere. Captain Chips races in the sixth for trainer Alec Laird, a MR 71 Handicap over 1400m, where he has a manageable draw of seven. He has found little extra when thereabouts over 1600m in his last two, so he should appreciate the step down to a trip where he has hard knocking handicap form and a win in the maidens.
Furthermore, he has come down two points in the merit ratings for the two 1600m runs.
Penstock in the last is another possibility for a banker as he has been lowered to a competitive merit rating and is dropped back to a probable more suitable trip of 2000m. He has a plum draw too. Malinga and Skynight also make some appeal in that event.Punters could get off to a good start with Devadip in the first over 2000m, as he was only beaten last time over 1800m by a horse who was thought good enough to be in Saturday’s Dingaans. He will likely relish the step up in trip too, being by Captain Al and a half-brother to the middle distance-to-staying type Estimation.
Preview and form for the meeting at Vaal on Thursday. Selections by David Thiselton.
Vaal (Inside Track)
Race 1
Preview: DEVADIP lands a pole position draw and should enjoy the trip so looks hard to oppose. AIR FORCE LEGEND is always thereabouts from 1400-1800m and looks to be the chief candidate for second place. TERN UNSTONED only just failed under Muzi Yeni last time over 2400m so can earn with the same rider aboard from a good draw. (David Thiselton 4-1-5)Race 2
Preview: JUST CRUISED IN stayed all the way to the line when finishing second over 1600m in soft going on Turffontein Standside last time and is now drawn pole over a slight step up in trip he will appreciate. Piere Strydom rides and the blinkers are on. PILOU has run two good races and looks likely to enjoy this trip so is the one to beat from a better draw than he had last time over 1450m when becoming a bit one-paced late. MILITARY AWARD over raced last time over 1450m, having been eye catching on the Turffontein Standside 1400m before that, so it all depends on whether he settles this time from a good draw over further. INN A MILLION stayed on quite well on debut over 1600m and could improve from a good draw here. SPEED MONITOR settled well under Raymond Danielson last time and ran on for a close second in slightly soft going over 1600m. A wide draw is a concern for one who can be headstrong, but Danielson does remain aboard and his good hands could be what made the difference last time. (David Thiselton 2-9-1-8-3)Race3
Preview: ROSE WATER beat Rhyme Or Reason the last time they met, over 1600m. She has knocked hard over this trip, but doesn’t have as good a draw as Rhyme Or Reason. RHYME OR REASON ran a good second behind a fair sort last time over 1400m from a plum draw. She has a fair draw again in a weaker field, but the trip is a question mark considering she over raced over 1600m in her penultimate start when well beaten by Rose Water. COUNTESS NABEELA improved last time and she has a plum draw over a trip which should suit. (David Thiselton 2-6-1)Race 4
Preview: RIBBONOFMOONLIGHT did well over this trip last time and now has Strydom up. OUR MIRACLE is off a competitive merit rating according to her best form. She should go close from a fair draw under Muzi Yeni. VICTOR’S CASTLE ran on strongly from behind over this trip last time after being slow away. Her usual slow start should allow her to drop in behind and find the favourable inside going from her high draw of 17 in this race. SHE’S A FLIRT has a plum draw which will suit her handy style. BEAUTIFUL SHAY is course an distance suited and should be involved off a merit rating which has been lowered another two points. BECKONING has a tricky draw but is in good form and is course and distance suited. DALLEY should be improving being by Ideal World and should have benefitted from her last run which followed a layoff. (David Thiselton 8-4-13-11-1-6)Race 5
Preview: DANZA went close to top class Brazuca over this trip last time and can go one better with Gavin Lerena remaining aboard. REFUGE came from well back last time and can carry on progressing as he has some class. Trading Profit would prefer further but will be involved if reproducing his Jo’burg Spring Challenge run. LIFE IS GOOD looks promising but faces a tough task in his first run out the maidens following a layoff since August. Go Direct has his first run since Gold Cup day and could make a bold bid from the front or near to the front. IMPERIAL GOLD has been disappointing overall and is one who doesn’t seem to go through with his effort. He is battling to get his nose in front off his current merit rating (David Thiselton 3-4-6-7-1-4)Race 6
Preview: CAPTAIN CHIPS looks likely to enjoy the step back to 1400m and will also appreciate a two point drop in the merit ratings. SABRE DANCE is interesting with Gavin Lerena up from a plum draw over a suitable trip as his second behind Querari Viking in September reads quite well. YANKEE CAPTAIN has a tough draw but is capable of running on so might be dropped out behind them over this suitable course and distance. GOLDEN MAN is a consistent money earner who has a good turn of foot and is distance suited. LET’S GO WEST will appreciate the drop back to this trip but has a tough draw. CRIMSON MAGIC has bounced back to form and although raised five points for his last win she can use her fair turn of foot to earn over a trip she handles. WARBASH won his penultimate over course and distance from quite a high draw so could earn from a high draw off a four point higher mark and a 1,5kg claimer up. (David Thiselton 7-6-4-5-8-12)Race 7
Preview: ALL NIGHT FLIGHT was unlucky last time but before that lost by 2,5 lengths over course and distance to Magic. He is now 2,5kg better off with Magic jumps from the plum number one draw as opposed to draw 8. QUEEN LAURIE is a three-year-old filly up against the boys off a tough merit rating of 88 but if reproducing her last run she can win and she can overcome her high draw with her pace. MAGIC jumped from draw one in the race he won and now has draw seven, but that last win was his first run after a layoff and could have brought him on further. ISPHAN has plenty of pace but tends to fade late, so Weichong Marwing aboard might make a difference. RAFA is drawn on the right side and should be a factor over a suitable course and distance. KAPITAN has a high draw but could overcome it with his early pace. (David Thiselton 5-6-9-2-4-10)Race 8
Preview: PENSTOCK is well drawn over a suitable trip and he is down to a competitive merit rating. MALINGA has some fair form and is down to a competitive merit rating and is also interesting from a fair draw over this step up in trip as he was a bit one-paced in the finish last time over 1800m but was staying on. SKYNIGHT is capable of running on resolutely so can be dropped out from a wide draw. TALBEC has been knocking on the door over staying trips but should also be effective over this trip. VICTORIOUS ROYAL can do well if settling, but a wide draw is a concern for one who can be headstrong. MOVE LIKE JAGGER’s best form is over 1400m and he will have to be ridden cold to stay this trip. (David Thiselton 7-5-6-2-13-3)
