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Is the idea of a 'Guineas trial' an out-dated concept?

Ask a racing fan to name a Guineas trial and they are likely to list the traditional races: the Greenham, the Craven and the Leopardstown trials. But is the idea of a 'Guineas trial' an out-dated concept? How many horses are using those races as a stepping stone to Guineas glory?

The answer is simple. They aren't.

Of course, there are notable exceptions. Frankel commenced his 2011 campaign with a comfortable four length success in the Group Three Greenham Stakes at Newbury before setting new records in the 2000 Guineas. Night of Thunder (2014) attempted the same feat when second behind Kingman in the Greenham Stakes before reversing the form with his rival in the Classic itself.

In Ireland, Poetic Flare boosted the reputation of the 7f Listed 2000 Guineas Trial Stakes at Leopardstown by winning the contest en route to Guineas success in 2021. Prior to Poetic Flare's success, the double had not been completed since 1999 (Saffron Walden).

In the past ten renewals of the 2000 Guineas, only two winners have raced as a three-year-old prior to the Guineas and taken in a trial. Of the remaining eight, seven of the winners won or placed in the three main Group 1 juvenile contests: the 1m Vertem Futurity Stakes (formerly the Racing Post Trophy), the 7f Dewhurst Stakes and the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp. The only anomaly is last season's 2000 Guineas winner Coroebus, who won the Listed Autumn Stakes on his final start of his juvenile campaign.

With these trends in mind, who is likely to win the 2023 renewal of the 2000 Guineas?

The Aidan O'Brien trained Auguste Rodin is a worthy ante-post favourite after an emphatic three-and-a-half length victory in the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Trophy at Doncaster in Doncaster and sets a very high standard. The second-placed horse Epictetus has not been entered for Newmarket and will be targeting the Epsom Derby.

Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes winner Chaldean will be a point of contention for any adhering to these trends as he has theoretically run in a trial, despite unseating jockey Frankie Dettori after leaving the stalls in the Greenham Stakes. Second in the Dewhurst Stakes, Royal Scotsman fits the profile for a 2000 Guineas winner and has caught the attention of many with attractive ante-post odds of 10/1. Dewhurst third Nostrum was ruled out of the 2000 Guineas due to injury.

The form of the 2022 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardare does not look likely to translate to Classic success and none of the top three are entered in the Newmarket contest.

Of the traditional Guineas trials, the Greenham Stakes and the Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial Stakes are the only two to produce subsequent 2000 Guineas winners in the last decade. The winners of these races theoretically deserve to make the shortlist but neither Hans Anderson or Isaac Shelby are entered.

The trends create a simple top three for the big race using the following criteria in order of preference:

• Winner/second in the Vertem Futurity Trophy on last start (3-10)
• Winner/second in the Dewhurst Stakes on last start (2-10)
• Placed in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on last start (2-10)
• Won or placed in the Greenham Stakes or Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial (2-10)

A slender preference for second has been given to Royal Scotsman over Chaldean, as he will be making his seasonal reappearance in the 2000 Guineas.

1. Auguste Rodin
2. Royal Scotsman
3. Chaldean