3 minute read
Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Wednesday's Warwick Farm meeting. Selections based on a heavy track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 - 12:25PM EXCEEDANCE @ VINERY STUD HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
Tricky race to start, and leaning towards 1. Winning Proposal, who brings a race fitness/experience edge. The late market trade suggested the filly would improve from her run first-up at Wyong, and she was honest in defeat when running second in a solid time race. She will be fitter for that, the extra trip suits and Nash Rawiller rides for the first time.
Dangers: 8. Scintilla has a solid platform for this assignment after having two trials over 1050m. She has responded well under pressure in both heats and represents value. 9. Sister Daae gets a favourable setup and maps to have every chance with James McDonald to ride. 7. Red Envelope is a key late market watch and 12. Vanessi is coming through a proven form reference.
How to play it: Winning Proposal WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 2 - 1:00PM VALE DAVID MILLS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
11. Tarpaulin resumes from a 186-day spell and looks to have returned improved. The Godolphin galloper has moved well in two recent trials and has gone through the line full of energy. In his debut last campaign, he had excuses behind subsequent Group 2 winner Straight Charge after having the race shape against and was checked/blocked at critical stages. He receives a positive race setup with James McDonald to do the steering, and the rain-affected ground should pose no issue.
Dangers: Debutant 9. Metaphorically has shown speed/natural pace in two trials and looks ready to run well here. 1. Buckingham Palace had all favours on debut but was solid in defeat and will roll forward from the inside draw. Il Passero will be more suited over further, but expect him to be savaging the line and add 5. Carnegie Hill, who won a recent heat at Randwick.
How to play it: Tarpaulin WIN ($2.10 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 3 - 1:35PM DRINKWISE PLATE (1100 METRES)
13. Gram returns from a lengthy spell but has shown style in two recent heats and looks ready to sprint fresh. The colt's debut run in the Max Lees Classic (900m) at Newcastle was full of merit, and all key indicators suggested he would come back improved in his second campaign. He had too much to do after getting too far back, had to make a long wide-sustained run and got on the wrong leg but still sprinted hard before peaking to finish third. Further, he exerted too much energy between the 600m-200m, and he would've benefited immensely from that race experience. The Godolphin galloper should get run to suit with the anticipated race shape, and James McDonald, who rode him in his latest trial, sticks for race day.
Dangers: 8. Love And Light is another runner resuming, and she's won two trials leading into this event. She's wound right up for this and can rate to win. 4. Invade And Conquer had no luck last start, and 12. Te Pani can bounce back with the tongue tie going on for the first time. 2. Detendu will be fitter and rolls forward.
How to play it: Gram WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 4 - 2:10PM TAB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
Happy to forgive 1. Ringarosa's last start where she had genuine excuses, and she can bounce back here. Her two prior starts had sectional merit, and her last win came at this track/distance. The mare has a strong record at this track, and all her peak figures have come on heavy-rated surfaces. She can blend into it and has the closing speed to run over the top of her rivals being down in grade.
Dangers: 16. Drift Net did it on both ends when breaking through for her maiden win, and she's trialled well between runs. She can roll forward, accelerate, and be hard to catch. 5. Emmadella and 7. Serene Nic are coming through two fast-time races, and repeating their last start efforts/figures can put them near the finish. 13. Setombe arguably should've won last start and gets out to the 1300m for the first time.
How to play it: Ringarosa WIN ($12 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 5 - 2:45PM GOLDEN MILE @ DARLEY HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
Expecting 4. Space Age to improve third-up, and he comes through a high-rating race last start at Randwick in a stronger grade. The import had to make his run through the inferior ground, and his late splits suggest he is ready to peak. He can settle much closer, and the claim suits. Each-way.
Dangers: 7. Danish Prince has gone to a new level in his past two starts since the blinkers have been re-applied, and he went down fighting to finish third behind improving galloper Franz Josef. He'll roll forward and give a sight with Tim Clark riding. 11. Guzumped wasn't suited to the sit/sprint race shape last start at Hawkesbury, and the drop back in distance is ideal. 8. Elsie May hit the line to score at Canterbury last start, and James McDonald sticks. Add 6. Dimaggio to wider exotics.
How to play it: Space Age E/W ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 6 - 3:20PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
11. Kerguelen smashed the clock on debut at Kembla Grange when winning by 9.5 lengths, and he has come in on a smart base figure. He led at a genuine tempo, accelerated, and went through the line full of energy, doing it with style, pricking his ears on the line. The Godolphin galloper proved he revels in the heavy conditions and has trialled well between runs when not extended. He profiles well to make the step in grade.
Dangers: 1. Cool Jakey can improve sharply here from the inside gate, and expect an aggressive ride. Nash Rawiller suits, and he won at the track/distance second-up last campaign. 8. Accredited and 6. Need Some Luck comes through the same form reference, with the latter winning. However, Accredited meets him 2kg better off at the weights and brings the SP edge. Add 7. Kandinsky Abstract to wider exotics.
How to play it: Kerguelen WIN ($1.85 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 7 - 3:55PM THE AGENCY CIVIC STAKES (1400 METRES)
This looks a target race by trainer Joe Pride for five-year-old gelding 14. Estadio Mestalla, who is set to improve getting out to 1400m with no weight. The five-year-old hit the line hard, running fast closing splits first-up, then had excuses last start at Randwick after being 28 days between runs when SPing favourite. Further, it was a high-pressure race, and he got into an awkward spot before being slightly outpaced up-tempo, but to his credit, he wanted to keep finding the line, indicating he could peak here. He won third-up last campaign, can settle much closer, races at his home track and has multiple winning figures.
Dangers: 15. Rise Of The Masses is another lightweight chance representing value in this assignment. Forget he went around last start at Randwick when pulling up lame, but in his prior start, he ran time to score at Hawkesbury. Repeating that figure with a favourable map can put him in the finish. 1. Tamerlane is a class runner, and he looked to need the run first-up at Scone. He's trialled well between runs and maps to have all favours. 12. Diamond Diesel was well-ridden last start but is in career-best form, and add 4. Strait Acer who drops significantly in grade.
How to play it: Estadio Mestalla WIN ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 8 - 4:30PM MAURICE AT ARROWFIELD HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
Keen on 13. Rebel Dean at the odds, and he produced a career peak figure first-up at Kensington a fortnight ago on a heavy surface. The gelding was well-backed late in the trade, and his run was full of merit when running second in a high-rating race relative to the day. He was restrained from a wide draw, got too far back and was forced back into the inferior ground in the straight. Further, to his credit, he sprinted hard, clocked the meeting's fastest final 600m split and just missed in a tight finish. He gets conditions to suit, draws to be smothered away, and if he repeats his last start figure, expect him to be in the finish. It's worth noting jockey Nash Rawiller has saluted 19 times out of his past 100 rides for a profit on turnover of 7.6%.
Dangers: 16. Sunchyme is a knockout chance and a key late-market watch. She raced well last campaign and had genuine excuses in two similar grade races. Happy to forgive 1. Dipsy Doodle's last prep where nothing went right for her, and she can bounce back here. She's trialled well and looks ready to run well first-up. 11. One Destiny is running a consistent rating to put him in the finish and 9. Pisanello can have the last shot.
How to play it: Rebel Dean WIN ($9.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Best Bet: Race 8 # 13 - Rebel Dean
Next Best: Race 6 # 11 - Kerguelen
Best Value: Race 5 # 4 - Space Age
