3 minute read
Strap yourself in, the 2024 Ladbrokes Cox Plate is here!
For more racing and sports previews, visit the Ladbrokes Blog.
Australasia's premier weight-for-age race has attracted a field of nine this year and it isn't lacking in class with five G1 winners while the other four horses have all placed at the highest level.
International horses have dominated the time-honoured feature over the past five years and the Ladbrokes market setters believe that trend may continue, with Japanese galloper Prognosis opening as the early favourite.
Mr Brightside returns looking to avenge his heartbreaking loss by a nose in last year's Ladbrokes Cox Plate.
Champion jockey James McDonald has won the past two editions with Anamoe and Romantic Warrior and this year he'll look to claim a hattrick with Via Sistina.
Of course, it wouldn't be a Ladbrokes Cox Plate without drama and that was the case on Tuesday morning when McDonald fell from Via Sistina at Breakfast with the Best.
The 104th edition of the Ladbrokes Cox Plate shapes to be one of the most memorable editions of the $5 million staying test, and our thoughts on every runner in this year's G1 feature can be found below. (Prices current at time of publish)
1. Mr Brightside (2)
Price: $8.50
The Team Hayes marvel rarely puts a hoof wrong and has won seven G1 titles.
The seven-year-old gelding returns for his third Ladbrokes Cox Plate and will be looking to go one better after a photo finish awarded him second place last year.
His preparation has gone well so far with a strong second first-up in the G1 Memsie Stakes before winning the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes at his second run back.
Since then, he chased a tearaway Pride Of Jenni brilliantly to finish 1.5 lengths second in the G2 Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes before just failing to run down Deny Knowledge in the G1 Might And Power.
The son of Bullbars is at peak fitness now and the addition of winkers may help him find that extra one percent he needs to convert his recent seconds to wins.
His final piece of work was just what the Hayes Boys were looking for and he should enjoy a sweet run from barrier 2.
Once again, the popular galloper is a leading player.
2. Prognosis (5)
Price: $3.00
Romantic Warrior's heroics in last year's Ladbrokes Cox Plate and finishing agonisingly close to that horse on three occasions, inspired connections of the Japanese galloper to make a tilt at this year's WFA Classic.
The son of Deep Impact has enjoyed an auspicious career, winning seven of his 15 starts with three of those victories at G2 level.
While the Mitsumasa Nakauchida-trained seven-year-old hasn't won at the highest level, he has finished runner-up to Romantic Warrior twice in the QEII Cup with the most recent being by just a head as well as finishing third to Japanese superstar Equinox.
Connections are reluctant to compare him to 2019 winner Lys Gracieux just yet, but they think highly enough of him to suggest he is on track to match that horse.
He is nine weeks between runs which is ideal given he flies fresh and has won seven of 10 first-up races.
He has a penchant for missing the start, so horse whisperer Julian Welsh has been working with him since he's been based in Melbourne and his work this week has been top shelf.
The Japanese breed their stayers tough and this guy looks no exception, he's definitely a worthy favourite.
3. Kovalica (9)
Price: $31.00
The Chris Waller-trained son of Ocean Park took all before him as a three-year-old, winning three Group races in Queensland including the G1 Queensland Derby.
Unfortunately, that win which was 18 months ago, was his last.
The now five-year-old looked to have a great opportunity last start in the G2 Hill Stakes at Rosehill but just couldn't get the job done, finishing a head second.
Adding to his woes is the fact he will jump from the outside gate, so I'm happy to let him go around without me.
4. Royal Patronage (3)
Price: $26.00
The Waterhouse & Bott-trained import has raced well since arriving in Australia.
The six-year-old opened his campaign with an impressive win in the G2 Tramway Stakes before finishing third in his next three races all at black-type level.
He led over 1900m in the Hill Stakes last start and weakened to finish 2.2 lengths third so I'm reluctant to support him here where the 2040m contest is run at a high pressure.
5. Docklands (1)
Price: $14.00
The Harry Eustace-trained import brings solid UK form with him having only been out of the top three twice in 12 starts.
His new owners, Australia's OTI Racing, saw his potential when he ran a bold race to finish 2.3 lengths second to Charyn in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes during the Ascot Carnival.
Eustace has stated that his galloper enjoys a strong speed which he will get here with the likes of Pride Of Jenni engaged.
All his racing has predominantly been over a mile with one of his rare failures coming last start when stepping up to 2112m in the G1 Juddmonte International Stakes when beaten 11.5 lengths by City Of Troy.
That has to cast some doubt over his ability to run out a strong Ladbrokes Cox Plate and for that reason I'm happy for him to win without me.
6. Pride Of Jenni (7)
Price: $5.00
The exciting galloper will set the tone of the race with her bold front running tactics.
Ciaron Maher's mare is on the quick back-up after leading the G1 King Charles III Stakes until the shadows of the post where she was run down to finish just under a length second.
Two starts back the daughter of Pride Of Dubai dictated the G2 Feehan Stakes from start to finish to win by 1.5 lengths.
She rises to this distance for the first time since famously running the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes field ragged and winning by 6.5 lengths.
The six-year-old's chance rely on whether she's pestered in front but if she gets to dictate then she may prove hard to run down.
7. Via Sistina (4)
Price: $4.20
Everything was going swimmingly for the Chris Waller-trained mare until a mishap at the Breakfast with the Best that saw her throw jockey James McDonald and proceed to do three laps of The Valley circuit.
Thankfully both horse and jockey are fine and a decision about her running in the Ladbrokes Cox Plate will be made on race morning.
Up until Tuesday morning, the daughter of Fastnet Rock had been racing in super form.
She opened this preparation with a hard-fought win in the G1 Winx Stakes before racing flat second-up in the Makybe Diva Stakes.
The seven-year-old bounced back in a big way last start when running on strongly to outstay stablemate Buckaroo in the G1 Turnbull Stakes.
The champion trainer will alter her preparations this week and if she has taken no harm from her extra work on Tuesday, then is one of the better winning chances.
8. Broadsiding (8)
Price: $6.50
The Godolphin galloper was last season's champion two-year-old by the length of the straight after winning the G1 Champagne Stakes and the G1 Ladbrokes JJ Atkins by a breathtaking 4.3 lengths.
He picked up where he left off with an impressive display first-up when resuming in the Golden Rose Stakes.
The son of Too Darn Hot let down over 1400m in supreme fashion to run down the likes of Traffic Warden and Mayfair.
On the back of that win, he started a red-hot favourite in the G1 Caulfield Guineas last start where he was a victim of interference and settled further back than was anticipated but to his credit he worked home well for a close fourth.
While he didn't get the win, the run will have set him up nicely for his first attempt at this distance.
With just 49.5kg on his back, he may prove his class and emulate Anamoe who won the Ladbrokes Cox Plate for Godolphin two years ago. I certainly wouldn't be taking him lightly.
9. Evaporate (6)
Price: $31.00
The Team Hayes-trained gelding has been racing in terrific form this preparation and only tasted defeat for the first time this time in work last start in the Caulfield Guineas.
After winning his maiden five starts back, the son of Per Incanto then won three in a row at The Valley including the Stutt Stakes by a length last start.
Unfortunately, he wasn't suited by the lack of speed but did well to finish less than a length third and ahead of Broadsiding.
He's undefeated in three starts at The Valley and gets in with just 49.5kg for being a three-year-old.
While I don't think he can win, he does seem over the odds and not worthy of being one of the outsiders in the field.
The Judgement
It's going to be a cracking edition on the 2024 Ladbrokes Cox Plate and I'm going with Prognosis to win a second title for the Japanese.
The son of Deep Impact was huge in the QEII Cup at Sha Tin in April where he came out lengths behind the field before making a long-sustained run around the field and fighting it out with Romantic Warrior to just miss the win.
That hardness and ability to sustain a strong run bodes well for the Ladbrokes Cox Plate which places horses under pressure like no other.
He's been kept fresh for this which is when he does his best work and from all reports, he's been working the house down in his recent pieces of work on the track.
The booking of Damian Lane is a positive and he's the horse I want to be with.
Selections:
1st – Prognosis (2)
2nd – Via Sistina (7)
3rd – Mr Brightside (1)
4th – Broadsiding (8)
5th – Pride Of Jenni (6)
