3 minute read
2016 Caulfield Guineas Day looks a shootout at the O.K Corral between punters and bookmakers with plenty of clear favourites locked and loaded.
Punters will want to save a few rounds for the final standoff in the Schillaci Stakes where talented three-year-old Star Turn clearly heads betting against a field of good sprinters.
Good sprinters, no doubt, but they all look vulnerable to an explosive three-year-old just as they were in last Friday's Moir Stakes. We often hear about the challenge of beating the older horses, but statistically the challenge sits with the older horses.
There are reasons that three-year-olds win more than their share against older horses in feature races. Trainers don't tend to aim their three-year-olds at the bigger races when so many (far too many fwiw) races are put on for them elsewhere and so the ones that are aimed up tend to have already proven themselves smart. Further to that, that glut of restricted three-year-old races add plenty of glitter to a C.V and so we see plenty of good ones, and plenty of potentially good ones, shuffled off to stud before they get the chance to race at four and beyond.
Turn Me Loose is the highest rated horse in the Schillaci (rated 125 by Timeform) but 1100m is short of the trip where we have see him produce his peak performances. The sprinters in the race are all around the 120 mark on Timeform's scale. Very good, but vulnerable to a top liner.
Star Turn posted big time in both runs this season, winning first up and then just missing subsequent Golden Rose winner Astern in a white hot race last time. He has earned himself a Timeform rating of 119+. So just in the mix here, but he's there at the start of his three-year-old spring. His best racing should still be ahead of him and that + indicates that he could well be better than that already.
He has upside that says his chance of going to a new level is much higher than the chance of the older geldings finding a new level - and given that he makes plenty of appeal on Saturday. We want to play!
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For an each way play we like the early price of Prompt Response in race three. The little weight turnarounds from the key lead up are all in favour of Prompt Response and she was first up there so she can be fitter.
Further to that, she draws barrier two, just to the outside of early favourite In The Vanguard, and both will be looking to push forward. The race sets up for them to take plenty of pegging back.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 10 #12 Star Turn @ $2.80
Each Way Play: Race 3 #6 Prompt Response @ $7.50
