3 minute read
Racing in Melbourne this week heads to Flemington with the Chester Manifold meeting producing a strong summer card as always.
We will look to get in and get the cash early with the John O'Shea-trained Emptor piquing our interest with a couple of interesting switches.
Emptor ran above average ratings winning his first two starts up in Newcastle and he built on that with a strong effort at Caulfield last time behind Alter Call and Oak Door.
Oak Door has won since and turns up as a key rival to Emptor again at Flemington but we are tipping the tables turn with Oak Door's Sandown win gift wrapped for him and Emptor, who meets him on better terms, looking the one with more upside at this point in their campaigns.
Racing and Sports ratings point to there being very little between Emptor and top weight Widgee Turf who has posted a couple of very solid figures coming in but a couple of key switches tilt things slightly in favour of Emptor in our view.
The blinkers go on and that along with the step to 1400m points to Emptor being very positive early. That's a big plus and it looks particularly positive when we see that he gets a jockey switch to the very much in-form Regan Bayliss.
You can check out the key stats for Regan Bayliss here and one thing that it noticeable is how profitable he has been for punters when in the market this season.
Further to that we see that his seven Flemington winners have been amongst his most profitable, returning punters +95% profit on turnover at the venue.
A deeper look at Bayliss' season shows that over half of his 50 winners have come on horses that settled in the first three in running, 15 of those winners when settling in front, and that is where Emptor looks like landing on Saturday.
For an each way play we push on to race eight on the card and a very competitive 2000m handicap with plenty of winning hopes.
It's a deep race but we think there is a terrific gamble available with Master Zephyr who wasn't able to run down Flying Light last time but should get his chance to do so this time around.
Flying Light was coming off a fast run 2000m success there and got a fairly soft time of things up on the speed. He was always going to be hard to peg back the way the race was run.
Master Zephyr ran very well to get as close as he did and a big competitive field should pour on a stronger tempo for him today. Good ground looks the key to Master Zephyr and soft tracks have no doubt played a role in a winning drought that he will be out to break at Flemington.
Each way odds about him look well worth taking.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 1 #3 Emptor @ $3.00
Each Way Play: Race 8 #8 Master Zephyr @ $7.50
