3 minute read

Racing heads to Ballarat for Cup Day on Saturday for a bumper ten race card.

We look to Ballarat now with big fields that are likely to drastically change complexity come Saturday with rain predicted on an already soft track.

That creates a few issues in some races but what should do is help Dream All Day in Race 2, who resumed with an excellent win over the track and distance. She started a $2.10 favourite, missed the start, but rounded them up effortlessly from a long last to win by three lengths.

She ran strong overall time and did it easily in strong splits, posting a Racing & Sports rating of 91, the best in this field. To add to that, she's already rated 96 having run second at Flemington over 2000m to Aztec State at 200-1 before a spell and can improve again here.

If this were 1600m I'd be declaring her, but she should have no issue on a wet track (she's a full sister to Atishu) and she should get a solid pace to run at here, on a track that's likely to test their stamina a bit. Even money here is probably about right but there's a chance we get a bit better once this market gets serious.

The horse I'm probably keenest to be with on the day comes up in the last where The Open looks a fantastic proposition.

I'm keen to be against Flying Fizz who was dominant last time at Donald when leading throughout, but got an easy time and was perfectly ridden to do so. There's a lot more pressure here and it looks a completely different scenario.

While Flying Fizz ran to 101 on the RAS scale there, The Open holds a peak rating of 107 which is the equal highest in this field.

He resumed over 1200m at Moonee Valley and just did enough late, getting home in the best last 200m, in what was a test of speed from the outset which I don't think suited.

He's run ratings of 102 and 104 on heavy ground so no issue there, and his past two 1400m starts he was beaten by the now 112 rated Craig and the 108 rated Running By.

With pace drawn outside he can just tuck in behind and I'd be disappointed if he wasn't going very close to winning this. The $8.50 looks a great bet.

The Melbourne Mail

Bet of the day: Race 2 #3 Dream All Day at $2.00
Best value: Race 10 #5 The Open at $8.50