3 minute read
Guineas day at Caulfield is always one of the best days on the calendar.
Three Group Ones to get excited about this week on Guineas day where we could be in for something special.
While Broadsiding (and Mr Brightside) are the main attractions, neither look betting propositions at the short odds. For what it's worth, I've got Broadsiding marked $1.60 and Mr Brightside marked $1.75 so both would need to get out a bit to entertain diving in.
For our best on the card, I'm happy to roll back to Race 2 with a fairly evenly matched fillies race seeing Erno's Cube equal favourite in a three-way go, when I think she should be outright pick.
First-up in the Silver Shadow she ran to 108+ on the Timeform scale, ridden inefficiently and getting home strongly late. She was 0.6 lengths off Silmarillion there who was ridden perfectly on speed and the sectionals say Erno's Cube was some 10 pounds better than her.
Last start I don't think she quite ran out 1400m when looming behind Autumn Glow, but still ran to 108 and brings comfortably the best last start rating into this.
Back to 1200m here, she looks clearly the horse to beat. I Am Velvet is unbeaten in three runs, running to 99 with Timeform prior to a spell over 1400m. She's progressive but the race she won is awful and she'll need a big new peak fresh.
Big watch on the debutant who looks very smart but not many horses run close to 110 first time out, which she'll likely need to do.
For the each-way play, I'll go to the Herbert Power where Gear Up (who has been costly to me a few times) is going very well and gets his chance.
Two runs back over 2000m have been strong- he's sat on speed and stuck on well for third both times, first-up trailing a very strong pace behind Young Werther and Duke De Sessa, who have both run very well in a Turnbull since, and last start in the Naturalism when beaten a head.
He gets dry ground again here which is key and while he hasn't exactly fired over 2400m in Australia, his 2600m run was fine and his peak rating to this day is over a mile and half in Ireland.
At the weights, he rates clearly on top here and I think there's a case to be made he should be favourite.
The Melbourne Mail
Bet of the day: Race 2 #1 Erno's Cube at $4.60
Each-way play: Race 6 #4 Gear Up at $6.50
