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Chris Nelson provides his best bets for the Thoroughbred meeting at Gosford on Saturday, 11th May 2024. Brought to you by the TABtouch Blog.
RACE 1
Racing heads to Gosford on Saturday for their stand-alone Cup Day, plenty of feature races on the card which will be run on a very heavy surface. The 2yo's kick us off & a few of these have accepted both here & at the Sunshine Coast. No heavy form amongst them which suggests this is all a bit of a guessing game. Should IMPERIAL FORCE run here I'm with him however early indications suggest he'll head north. That being the case I'll lean to POINT AND SHOOT who closed off well on debut, the additional trip should suit, just don't want him too far back in the run. SOVEREIGN HILL shows promise, may need the outing however on speed will give a sight. Stack of other chances, where to look!
Numbers: 1 – 7 – 3 – 4
Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.
RACE 2
Usual tough Midway this time on a likely bog track. BODGIE gets through the ground well; he's won 3 of 10 on heavy ground & is yet to score on a dry surface. This is his go & he's won twice here at the track. Not sure how the barriers will play out however EYE PEAH OH draws out (maybe a blessing), not as at home on wet ground however has the recent form to win the race if can somehow get through it today. SILVANITO another well credentialled wet tracker worth including.
Numbers: 14 – 8 – 5 – 1
Suggested Bet: BODGIE EACH-WAY (small bet).
RACE 3
Super tough looking Highway! COOL DUKE & TICKLEBELLY are the two with the best country form & can certainly win the race however I just not convinced… I'll have a couple of dollars each-way ZARU at big odds, placed 6 of 8 heavy, 7 of 10 on soft (2 wins) draws well 7 the claim a definite help. If ever a race has a rough result look about it, this is it!
Numbers: 5 – 12 – 11 – 6
Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.
RACE 4
OUR MARYANNE is yet to go around on a heavy track however her soft record is a good one having won at 3 of her 5 attempts. She's been here once for a solid win here over this trip which came about two starts back on a soft (7). Big weight drop down 6kg on her latest she can run well here on an each-way basis. NAVAL COMMISSION is flying & unbeaten on heavy ground. DESPERADO is racing well, heavy ground a query though. FLASH MARY looks a dead-set wet tracker who seems way over the odds, include in exotics.
Numbers: 8 – 14 – 3 – 7
Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.
RACE 5 Best Bet
More than happy to stick with SCARLET OAK who impressed winning on debut across the ditch before sent to our shores & into the care of Chris Waller. Nice trial win before beating all bar the stablemate in Group 3 company at Randwick on a heavy (9) surface. She's already proven herself at Group class & I can't see too many of her opposition here reaching that level. MISS HADES is only lightly raced with a very good record, no exposure to heavy ground as yet however she's performed well on both good & soft so far. Keeping the imports FARNBOROUGH & TAJAWAL both safe, WEMBANYAMA has the form however it's all on dry ground.
Numbers: 9 – 5 – 1 – 12
Suggested Bet: SCARLET OAK TO WIN.
RACE 6
To the Cup! NOT USUAL GLORIOUS is clearly not the best horse going around in this race. He is the best wet tracker by a long way though & with the prevailing conditions I've got him on top. He should be ready to fire third-up & amazingly has won 13 times on soft/heavy ground, nil on dry. GOLDMAN the hardest to beat, accounted for all bar Huetor first up & is a swimmer. BOIS D'ARGENT next best, I'm a fan of NAVAL COLLEGE however suggest he'll take this run.
Numbers: 10 – 4 – 3 – 2
Suggested Bet: BACKING BOTH – NOT USUAL GLORIOUS & GOLDMAN TO WIN.
RACE 7
The Takeover Target looks a tough race. Tipped TASHI last start & was quite confident however her gate was no help as she gave away too much start. Previously she ran well in that outstanding form race won by Chain Of Lightning & even last start the winner Wee Nessy has since run second to Antino in last Saturdays Victory Stakes at Eagle Farm. Not sure where STEFI MAGNETICA ends up as she's also accepted up north, improved out of sight last prep & her lead-up trial was ok. GRAND IMPACT suited by the wet ground.
Numbers: 11 – 10 – 7 – 9
Suggested Bet: TASHI EACH-WAY (small bet).
RACE 8
Thought GREBENI was over the odds here. Super consistent with a good strike rate he put in a cracking first up run closing out strongly with 59.5kg. He's unbeaten second up, will carry only 0.5kg more & he seems to get through the ground soundly. WILLIAMSBURG is the swimmer, his record speaks for itself on wet ground however most of those good efforts were some time back, is he going as well these days to capitalise on the going today? We will see! MAGNASPIN has to be included.
Numbers: 1 – 2 – 4 – 3
Suggested Bet: GREBENI EACH-WAY.
RACE 9
Interesting race with the speed machine PASSEGGIATA involved first up from a break. She's had two trials being held back the first before let rip the latest when winning by 10 lengths! Suggest she & another first upper MOGO MAGIC are the hardest to beat, should PASSEGGIATA get through the bog ok she'll take catching however in these very wet conditions she may well prove vulnerable late. JEDIBEEL accounted for STORM THE RAMPARTS first up, the latter better suited at the weights this time around & much better placed on the heavy ground.
Numbers: 5 – 2 – 7 – 3
Suggested Bet: BACKING BOTH – PASSEGGIATA & MOGO MAGIC TO WIN.
RACE 10
Tipped BAROQUE ROAD in the closer last Saturday however he was a morning scratching. Here he is again in the final race & again he does appear well placed. He races well when fresh & handles all types of going, his wet record is better than his dry one though which is all important today. CRUEL SUMMER suited by the heavy ground, his best runs clearly on the wettest possible surface. HEURISTIC could be the big improver here dropping plenty in weight, fitter second up & handles the ground well. I'll include STARMAN however he's an enigma & even if clear in time last start I doubt he would have won.
Numbers: 3 – 6 – 12 – 5
Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.
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