3 minute read
Scott Embry provides his best bets for the Thoroughbred meeting at Ascot on Saturday, 9th November 2024. Brought to you by the TABtouch Blog.
HEMLOCK STONE meets SIMPLY 2.5kg better for a 1.8L margin last time they met and arguably even more important is the fact that CJP keeps the ride on Hemlock Stone whereas Simply goes from William Pike to a claiming apprentice. He's flying and he's capable of causing the upset with the right run. Eachway an easy bet. SIMPLY is looking to win his fourth straight staying race in the exact same grade. He's been beating up on the same horses over and over again and weights wise he should win again, just losing Pike is a very big consideration for punters. KERMAN ROCK was back to his best last weekend when finally allowed to roll. MANAVENDRA next best.
Numbers: 2 – 1 – 8 – 3
Suggested Bet – HEMLOCK STONE EACHWAY
HOLD MY WINE won both of his trials leading into his debut and then tracked up behind a very fast tempo: the 2 year olds ran 58:18 before the older horses ran 58:53 in the Graduation in the follow race. Was left a sitting duck to be run down and STRIDEAWAY came steaming over the top. Better for the experience, mapped to get every chance and meets her 2kg better. STRIDEAWAY is the only winner in an otherwise field of maidens and appreciated being allowed to find her feet last start. TALKANCO has looked good at trials and can work forward on debut. BLOW ME KISSES really impressed in his 400m jump out Monday.
Numbers: 2 – 1 – 14 – 11
Suggested Bet – HOLD MY WINE WIN
JANNY is no star but Westspeed Platinum should be her perfect grade. She comes 'up in grade' from a C3 on paper but drops half a kilo and gets the services of William Pike from an apprentice and doesn't run into anything nearly as talented as undefeated stablemate Yorga Pride who nudged her out last start. Right set up. WICKED VENOM steps out to 1200m but given the way he's racing this campaign there shouldn't be an issues with the extra furlong. Maps to enjoy a stalking run and has a turn of foot. KING CARTEL's 3 year old form is easily good enough to win this fresh. CLIMB ON TOP usually takes a run.
Numbers: 9 – 5 – 3 – 2
Suggested Bet – JANNY WIN
RACE 4 Best Bet
RICHANCO was nabbed in the shadows by Regal Statue last start after working his way to the front from a wide draw and shooting clear on straightening. He's got a beautiful high cruising speed and while he looks to be screaming out for a set of blinkers he's more than capable of winning in this grade without them. Should cross to the fence and from there he's the one to beat. COMIC HERO wasn't tested in his trial. Forget his last preparation on the wet tracks at Belmont. He's got X-Factor. FIRST BEACH is undefeated in WA and looks really progressive. AHYEAHRIGHTO just has to overcome a very tricky barrier/map.
Numbers: 4 – 6 – 9 – 5
Suggested Bet – RICHANCO WIN
SONOFTHEBOSS is often underestimated and has built up a really good career record: 4 wins and 7 minors from his 14 starts, yet often goes around eachway. He's drawn inside of Ain't No Other Man which gives Jason Brown the opportunity to come out underneath him and find a prominent spot over the speed early. Held his own behind Almighty Class / Toropa fresh and beat home key rival Generosity in the process. GENEROSITY has the blinkers coming off and brings the best form to the race having finished fourth behind Almighty Class, Toropa and All The King's Men in a 78+ most recently. ANTIQUE MISS back to 1200 the query? HELL I AM a watch at his WA debut.
Numbers: 7 – 8 – 5 – 4
Suggested Bet – SONOFTHEBOSS EACHWAY
DIAMOND SCENE cut down Rope Them In fresh over 1400m and then last week was sectionally brilliant behind Super Smink (second fastest L600) in the Asian Beau. On the 7 day back-up, carrying the same weight in a Listed race as a Group 3, out to 1800m and drawn a barrier. Lots to like. CURRIMUNDI was very stiff in the Northam Cup and had he got clear running the eye suggests that he would have gone mighty close to winning. A fortnight later he steps to 1800m (2x winner track/distance) and gets a 2kg weight swing on Bucket's Ridge. BUCKET'S RIDGE went to a new level in the Northam Cup and announced himself as a genuine Perth Cup. Lots of great races for him over the next 2 months. IN GOOD ORDER measured up at this level.
Numbers: 9 – 4 – 3 – 12
Suggested Bet – DIAMOND SCENE WIN
SEPTEMBER BORN went in the Belgravia Stakes first-up, a race which was touted as a match race between him and West Star. The clash lived up to expectations and ultimately the barrier/map provided West Star with the slight advantage and that was the difference in the finish, however, now out to 1400m, no West Star and with the blinkers going on there wil be very few people in the State tipping against the Playing God colt. OLYMPIC PARK jumped out of the ground to beat the older horses. He's the real deal. THE MERRYMAN has put in two big runs to start his career. HORCRUX can lead or box seat.
Numbers: 5 – 7 – 11 – 6
Suggested Bet – SEPTEMBER BORN WIN
MAGNIFICENT ANDY was back to his best in the Eurythmic Stakes when a fast finishing third behind Comfort Me. With Super Smink coming out of that race to score it's the obvious form reference and he's mapped to sit leader's back following Comfort Me who he meets 3.5kg better at the weights under WFA conditions. Looks a great set up. SEARCHIN' ROC'S was enormous in that race. She sat no better than four deep the trip and was somehow only beaten 2.2L. Question is: where does she get? (again). COMFORT ME finally put a trophy in the cabinet. Negative weight swings offset by identical map. LET'S GALAHVANT got flushed extremely wide on straightening.
Numbers: 7 – 11 – 4 – 6
Suggested Bet – MAGNIFICENT ANDY WIN
Same Race Multi – Comfort Me (Top 3) + Magnificent Andy (Top 3)
Playing the speed map in the Lee Steere Stakes, with Comfort Me mapped to cross and lead from barrier 7 and Magnificent Andy mapped to sit leader's back from barrier 1. They ran first and third respectively in the Eurythmic Stakes three weeks ago and are both extremely consistent types who should be able to get us across the line in the Same Race Multi.
SPEAK TO ME was backed off the boards last start when finishing fifth behind Olympic Park and rivals Harbin and Major Mario. Got across into a position, tracked the hot speed set by Full Of Merit and peaked on the run late. Pike goes on here, maps soft, drops 3.5kg and goes around eachway. Following up. ELITE MISSILE dodges September Born / Olympic Park in the Fairetha and with the 3-year-old allowance he gets in with only 54.5kg here. Love the placement and if Brad Parnham can find the right back to follow, he's a big danger late. BONDI PLUNGE was one of very few horses to make any ground out wide in the Regal Statue / Richaco race and was a follow. KESHI BOOM had no luck at her return.
Numbers: 8 – 11 – 9 – 1
Suggested Bet – SPEAK TO ME EACHWAY
Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)
3,4,9,12
5,7,11
4,7,11
1,4,7,8,9,10,11,13
Market
