3 minute read
Following their scintillating three-wicket win over Australia at Headingley last week, England will be hoping to square the series as they host their historic rivals at Old Trafford, Manchester for the Fourth Test beginning on Wednesday, July 19.
England were spurred to victory by the vicious pace of Mark Wood – clocking 96mph on the speed gun – and the batting mastery of Ben Stokes. The hosts have already announced their side for the crucial meeting with Moeen Ali expected to bat three, Jonny Bairstow retained as wicketkeeper and James Anderson in to replace Ollie Robinson.
The question mark for the visitors is whether to bring back all-rounder Cameron Green, and if so who for. They will likely drop either spinner Todd Murphy – a questionable choice given the spinning nature historically at Old Trafford – or Mitch Marsh who notched a ton and took some crucial wickets in Leeds. The other option is to drop opener David Warner to accommodate both Green and Marsh.
England are favourites to level the series at 2-2 priced at 13/10, while Australia, for the first time in the series, are outsiders at 8/5. The draw is priced at 10/3 - with showers or light rain forecast for a period on all five days at the moment, the potential is there for a punt on this.
Aussie opener Usman Khawaja remains the leading run scorer through three games with 356 runs at an average of 59.33. He has been the calm head, looking astute and difficult to remove, throughout the series. The only time he has looked in danger was when the pacy Wood rattled his timbers with a swinging 93mph delivery in the Third Test. Khawaja is 12/1 to score the most fours in the contest – he has 40 in the series – two more than Travis Head (38) who is priced at 18/1 in the same market, both backable prices.
However, eyes should turn to Steve Smith who looks in sublime form once he plays himself in. He only has 190 runs in the three games, but the eye test suggests he is due to make England pay at some point this series. Smith to score a century in the match (12/5) and to score over 90.5 runs (5/6) are both in play.
For England, there are plenty of markets centered around captain Stokes that could be of interest. He's averaging 51.50 with the bat and has scored 309 runs. He has hit 14 sixes through the series, nine more than anyone else. He's 9/4 to hit the most sixes and 10/1 to win Player of the Match award.
Ben Duckett enjoyed a good Test at Lord's, but found going a lot tougher at Headingley. The under 66.5 match runs is enticing for him at 5/6, as is the Zac Crawley v Duckett matchup in favour of Crawley at (10/11).
Turning to the ball, Wood is the threat for England as demonstrated by the 7-100 performance in the last Test. With speeds upward of 92mph on the regular, Wood had Khawaja and Marnus Labuschagne, amongst others, in trouble in Leeds. He is 9/2 to be the game's Top Bowler.
Other options in the England bowling markets include James Anderson taking under 4.5 wickets (8/13) and Stuart Broad to take under 4.5 wickets (11/10) - both Chris Woakes and Wood looked more menacing at Headingley and should enjoy the conditions at Old Trafford.
For Australia, Pat Cummins at over 4.5 wickets (4/6) is easy to back given his form in the series so far and his propensity to dismiss Joe Root. Mitchell Starc also looked sharp in Leeds and is another to back for over 4.5 wickets at 8/11 - the two Aussie pacemen have threatened far more than Scott Boland, Josh Hazlewood, Green and Marsh.
The Test will likely finish on day four – first session (10/1), second session (8/1) and third session (15/2) are worth backing to cover the day as a whole.
Australia to outright win the series is 2/5 in the betting, with a 3-2 comeback for England priced at 4/1. A 3-2 series win for Australia is 13/8 - it was 6/1 when we backed it prior to the series
