3 minute read
Betfair's golf analyst provides Australian PGA Championship tips including course insight, player fits and betting advice on both Winner and prop markets.
AUSTRALIAN PGA CHAMPIONSHIP TIPS AND PREVIEW
This is the 89th staging of the Australian PGA Championship, a tournament first won by Rufus Stewart at Royal Adelaide in 1929 and has seen the likes of Norman Von Nida, Gary Player, Kel Nagle, Hale Irwin, Seve Ballesteros, Greg Norman, Adam Scott and Cameron Smith all lift the Joe Kirkwood Cup. Min Woo Lee is the defending champion. While the tournament has been played in five Australian states and has had a nomadic existence, it has been staged exclusively in Queensland since 2000 with the famed Royal Queensland hosting the last four PGA Championships.
Field Analysis
We have a stunning field with the cream of the crop of Australian golf returning to their homeland to compete for one of Australian golf's finest honours. Three-time Kirkwood Cup winner and 2022 Open Champion Cameron Smith leads a field that includes defending champion Min Woo Lee, major winner Jason Day, LIV stars Lucas Herbert and Marc Leishman, PGA Tour winner Cameron Davis and a host of young stars David Micheluzzi and Elvis Smylie. The field also contains plenty of DP World Tour stars including Jordan Smith, Yannik Paul, Victor Perez and Danie Hillier.
Course Analysis
Royal Queensland is not a long track and it has wide fairways with little rough. That does not mean the course is easy though with tremendous bunkering around the course and difficult and fast greens. The best path to victory is being able to give it some off the tee, have a precise approach game and be class on and around the greens. At least -20 has won two of the last three events at Royal Queensland so being able to go low will be critical.
WEATHER
Rain, strong winds and humidity are forecast for the first three days of the tournament with a 50% chance of rain and winds reaching 23 km/h on Thursday, a 50% chance of rain and winds up to 21 km/h on Friday and 30% chance of rain with a similar wind on Saturday. The chance of rain drops away to 20% on Sunday with winds down around the 16 km/h mark.
SUGGESTED BETS: WINNER
Betting Strategy
BACK: Lucas Herbert (at $15 or Better)
Herbert was outstanding winning at Murray Downs last week, thriving in difficult conditions to win his first tournament on home soil. He has played well on LIV this season ranking Top 10 in Birdies and Putting Average. He finished 7th here last year. Nice play.
BACK: Jordan Smith (at $15 or Better)
Jordan Smith does not have a great record of getting over the line with just two DP World Tour wins though he has had a super year and he is in fine form with Top 20 finishes in eight of his last nine starts. Ranks 3rd in GIR and 22nd in Driving Accuracy. If he can get the putter rolling, he will be very hard to beat.
LAY: Cameron Smith (at $11 or Under)
Smith has finished T3 and T2 in his two starts since returning to Australia but started incredibly short in both and completely butchered the win in the NSW Open last week. His putter has abandoned him at times. Smith is far too short despite winning this event three times.
TOP 5
Betting Strategy
BACK: David Micheluzzi (at $5 or Better)
Micheluzzi won his way onto the DP World Tour this year and had a good season with four Top 10s and a further four Top 25s with a best finish of T-2 in the BMW International. He has played here three times and finished Top 10 twice. In career best form.
TOP 10
Betting Strategy
BACK: David Law (at $7 or Better)
Scot David Law has just a single win on the DP World Tour and that came on Australian soil when he won the Victorian Open back in 2019. He has four Top 25s this season on the DP World Tour and has the game to contend here.
TOP 20
Betting Strategy
BACK: Freddie Schott (at $5 or Better)
Big hitter who has five Top 17 finishes on the DP World Tour including two in his last six starts. Looks one who can overpower Royal Queensland.
FIRST ROUND LEADER
Betting Strategy
BACK: Min Woo Lee (at $15 or Better)
Min Woo Lee has loved this event and it has started with a super Round 1. He has opened up with a 64 and a 65 the last two starts here than had him 2nd and 1st respectively. He will be right in the mix to get the first round lead or a share of.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BET
Betting Strategy
BACK: Yannik Paul v Jason Scrivener (at $1.70 or Better)
German Yannik Paul finished 2nd in the Open de France a month back. Jason Scrivener is playing his best golf at the backend of the season but endured a tough year. All-in Paul here.
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