3 minute read
The Six Nations is back for its penultimate round, with three enticing matches on offer as all six national sides have something to fight for.
On Saturday afternoon, old rivals meet again as England host France at Twickenham. Both teams are locked on 10 points, but crucially the French have already faced (and lost) to runaway leaders Ireland while England must play them in their final match.
England, despite home advantage, are the narrow 13/10 underdogs while France come in as 5/6 favourites. The visitors should narrowly pip the home side but expect kicking to be key for both points and territory in a tight affair.
England +6 at 4/7 offers some value, although France –6 at 11/8 offers more and is a reasonable punt given that the power of the French pack should be too much for England.
Building on his try last time out against Wales in Cardiff, Ollie Lawrence is a good punt for anytime try scorer at (4/1). That only seems more likely with the flair of a returning Marcus Smith unlocking the door for him crashing in from behind. For the French Ethan Dumortier on the wing is a good value bet for anytime tryscorer at 15/8
Sunday's game pits hosts Scotland against the undefeated Irish, who are the obvious favourites at 3/8. There's a small chance of the Irish winning the whole tournament in Murrayfield, which relies on them getting a bonus point win while France and England both fail to do the same.
Scotland are longshots at 14/5 for a straight win, but the real question is over how good their performance will be against the world's number one ranked team. Ireland to win by 1-7 offers serious value at 11/4, and may be an alternative for those who fancy Scotland to play well in front of a raptious home crowd but fall just short. Ireland by 8-14 is also a solid 3/1.
From Edinburgh in the last game of round five, to Rome in the first where Italy face Wales with hopes of a first Six Nations win on home ground since they beat Ireland in 2013.
Yet despite better performances than Wales in this year's competition, and having defeated them in Cardiff last year, the market still sees the Italians as underdogs, meaning a 6/5 straight win for the Azzurri offers good value alone.
But there is a fear of Italy collapsing under the pressure with the Italian fans expectant for the first time in a long time- and their star man Ange Capuozzo is unavailable through injury in a huge blow.
Wales and Warren Gatland will continue to trust youth as they look to rebuild and put off field issues to bed when the whistle goes; if they can do so, and exploit a Capuozzo-less Italy, a straight Wales win is value enough.
Both sides need the win and a tight game is expected, so look at either side to win by 1-7 at 11/4 for Wales and 3/1 for Italy.
The youth may not be quite ready, but there are flashes of hope in Welsh red; inexperienced but lively, wing Rio Dyer will cause the Italian line problems and is a solid 11/1 for first tryscorer.
For anytime, Stephen Varney at 17/4 for Italy is an intriguing choice- against Ireland the scrum-half was impressive and will threaten to catch the Welsh line of guard.
