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Love EPL tips? Betfair's English Premier League Analyst provides his EPL tips and analysis for this week's football action. Betting strategies and previews available now.
West Ham vs Chelsea
Betting Strategy
Lay (Match Odds) Draw for 1 unit @ $4.00
Not a happy place to play for Chelsea. They have won just two of their nine trips to the London Stadium, with West Ham winning five alongside two draws. It is for West Ham's Michail Antonio though. He has scored against Chelsea in three of the past four seasons, with two of those goals coming at the London Stadium. There have been 17 goals scored in the past five games between the teams at this venue with 10 of those coming in the first halves of the matches.
A big problem for the new West Ham manager is the two games they have lost this season have both been at home to Aston Villa and Manchester City. Chelsea's two league wins came away from home, beating Wolves 6-2 and last weekend beating Bournemouth 1-0.
Such a hard game to predict, as Chelsea won their last game against West Ham, a 5-0 flogging in May. However, the Blues haven't won at the London Stadium in any of their past three visits. The past 10 matches Head to Head are 4-1-5 for West Ham, so they don't often draw. Only five of those games saw both teams score. There will likely be a clear winner, I am just not sure which side it will be, so I am laying the draw.
Aston Villa vs Wolverhampton
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Draw for 1 unit @ $4.60
On paper, Villa should have far too many guns for Wolves. They have won two of their opening three league matches this season, losing the other. Wolves, meanwhile, are still waiting for their first win, with a draw and two defeats so far. Wolves manager Gary O'Neil started the job on the eve of last season and was working with a team he had zero say in. Now he is working with players he has chosen, so the results should improve in theory but so far, it has not been the case.
Head to Head 10 Villa are 2-3-5 with just one win in the past seven. Five of the games were 0-0 at half time and only one went Over 3.5 goals. Three of them went Over 2.5 goals so this could well be tight again. Going with a draw on this one.
Fulham vs Newcastle
Betting Strategy
Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 3 units @ $1.63
In the past six Head to Head Fulham are 0-1-5 against the Magpies and this is a chance to rectify that as Newcastle are pretty poor on the road. They have beaten Fulham five games in a row with scores of 1-0, 3-0, 1-0, 4-1 and 2-0, so 11-1 on aggregate, making it quite hard to make a case for Fulham.
Fulham are coming off two 1-1 draws with West Ham and Ipswich and they beat Leicester 2-1 after losing their opening game 0-1 to Manchester United. Newcastle have a pair of 2-1 wins against Wolves (away) and Tottenham (home) after a 1-1 draw with Bournemouth and a 1-0 win on opening day against Southampton. So with three wins from four things look good, but this will be a genuine test, as Newcastle have won just seven of their past 21 road games. Recent form is WDWLWLWLLWW, so it's been 10 games since they won back to back away. They have conceded in their past six away.
Too hard to predict a winner with confidence here, but both teams should score for sure.
Leicester vs Everton
Betting Strategy
Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over 2.5 goals for 5 units @ $1.90
Everton are in real trouble with four losses from four games. If they lose this, they will be playing Championship football next season. In the past eight meetings, Leicester are 2-3-3 so it's all fairly even. Everton has not won any of their last 12 league away games, losing eight and six of those by a two or more goal margin. At least they have started scoring. After losing 0-3 to Brighton, and 0-4 to Spurs, they lost 2-3 to Brighton and somehow lost 2-3 to Aston Villa after leading 2-0.
With Everton conceding at least three goals in every game, and add the fact they have started to score at last, then the best bet of the weekend is the Over 2.5 goals at $1.90. We possibly get them in the first half and you could also look at Over 3.5 and Over 4.5 goals as well.
Liverpool vs Bournemouth
Betting Strategy
Back (Both Teams to Score) No for 1 unit @ $2.10
Liverpool were stunned last week losing to Nottingham Forest at Anfield for the first time in 55 years. Bournemouth are going to face the blowback from that defeat and there will be no complacency here. Liverpool have won their last five Premier League home matches against Bournemouth, with three of those by a margin of three or more goals. In season 22/23 they beat them 9-0 yet in the second meeting, at Bournemouth they lost 0-1. The last meeting was 0-0 at half time and ended 4-0 to Liverpool.
Last week we landed the Both Teams to Score bet (No) on Liverpool, but nobody saw Nottingham Forest being the team to score, so we can go again this week, as I see this being another tight game with only two of the past six games between the sides seeing both sides score.
Southampton vs Ipswich
Betting Strategy
Lay (Match Odds) Southampton for 2 units @ $2.30
This game looms as a huge relegation battle. Southampton are stuck on 0 points yet are second from bottom above Everton. Ipswich are on two points and in 17th place above Wolves with one point. So far Saints have lost four games and scored one goal. The scores were 0-3 to Manchester United, 1-3 to Brentford, 0-1 to Notts Forest and 0-1 to Newcastle.
Ipswich have had 0-0 with Brighton, 1-1 with Fulham which followed a 1-4 loss to Manchester City (a game in which they led) and 0-2 to Liverpool in a very tough return to the Premier League.
Apart from scoring just one goal, Southampton have also failed to score in two of their past three matches against Ipswich, which were in the Championship last season. After eight games against Saints with no wins, Ipswich won both meetings last season and I can see them winning here and inflicting more pain on the Saints. We can lay Southampton and keep the draw onside.
Tottenham vs Brentford
Betting Strategy
Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 3 units @ $1.70
It will be panic stations for Spurs if they don't win this one and Big Ange Postecoglou will start to come under some pressure. It won't be heavy pressure as there is no way Daniel Levy sacks him yet as the payout would be huge and the new man would cost more, so he is safe for this season. On paper Spurs have the side to win but it's just not working yet with Dominic Solanke still not firing with Son and Maddison. They have won three of the past four home games against Brentford and they need to win this.
Since returning to the Premier League, Brentford have three draws and one win, losing the other two. Both teams scored in four games and four went Over 3.5 goals. Last season the first meeting was 2-2 at half time and ended that way, and 3-2 to Spurs after being down 1-0 at half time.
Brentford have scored at least two goals in each of their past four games against Tottenham so we can look at the Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 goals for sure.
In the past 21 home games for Tottenham, 16 saw both teams score, and it is 12 of 21 away for Brentford. That makes the Both Teams to Score price about $1.53 and it's $1.70 so that's good value. Spurs had a run of 14 straight home games with both teams scoring, however, their past three games against Manchester City, Everton and Arsenal have seen just one side score.
The Over 2.5 goals is $1.52 and that is also incredible value as 17 of the past 21 Spurs home games went over ($1.24) and 13/21 Brentford away games ($1.62) so combined that is $1.43, so at $1.52 you have a value bet there. Of the two options, the Both Teams to Score is just a bit better.
Crystal Palace vs Manchester United
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Manchester United for 2 units @ $2.52
A difficult game to predict because Manchester United have won only one of their last seven away Premier League matches, losing four with two by a one-goal margin. They have also won just one of the past five meetings Head to Head. The recent scores for Palace against this opponent were 4-0, 1-0, 1-2, 1-1 and 1-0 so that's a great record.
Palace are not in form however, with losses to Brentford and West Ham, followed by draws with Chelsea and Leicester. Manchester United are better than all four of those sides. United have wins against Fulham and Southampton, and losses to Liverpool and Brighton sandwiched between the wins. Only one team has scored in three of their four games so far. In the four Palace games, both scored in three of the four games.
I was expecting Manchester United to be around even money so to see them at $2.52 is a great price. Also, 10 of the past 12 Manchester United away games have gone Over 2.5 goals so you may want to jump on that at $1.66. The reason for the bigger price, is they have not won any of their past four visits to Selhurst Park, with two losses and two draws, the last of which was the 4-0 hammering earlier this year.
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Draw for 1 unit @ $4.00
Brighton won't see this as a gimme after Forest stunned Anfield last week in beating Liverpool and the visitors will have confidence here. Brighton are unbeaten with two wins and two draws so far, and in what is a bit of an early shock, Forest are tied with them on eight points with two wins and two draws. In the only four recent Head to Head meetings, the scores were 1-0, 3-2, 1-3 and 0-0, so even those results are conflicting with four and five goals, and then none and one goal.
Nottingham Forest have won their past four away games. They ended last season beating Sheffield United and Burnley, and this season have wins over Southampton and Liverpool. They were expected to win three of those games however.
Brighton have just two home wins in seven games. A win over Manchester United and a 1-0 win over Aston Villa last season.
I can see this one ending all level and that is going to be the bet.
Manchester City vs Arsenal
Betting Strategy
Lay (Match Odds) Manchester City for 2 units @ $1.85
One of the biggest games of the season. If Arsenal can win this, then we have a genuine dogfight for the title. If they get blown away, then City will march to another title. City had eight straight wins in the Head to Head head meetings until last season, when Arsenal won 1-0 at the Etihad and there was a 0-0 at the Emirates. In the first five of those 10 meetings, Arsenal drew a blank.
Then there were scores of 1-2, 1-3, 1-4, then the two recent games 1-0 and 0-0. Both sides are very solid defensively, and Arsenal were superb last week holding out Tottenham, although they hardly battered the door down. There have been Under 2.5 goals in 7/9 Arsenal away matches against top-six teams so expect a tight game.
In their past 10 away games, Arsenal conceded in just one game against Tottenham, and it ended 3-2 to Arsenal. In the other nine games they kept clean sheets, with a 0-0 against City the last time they played here. They will take that again for sure.
City are beating teams at home but conceding and recent games ended 2-1, 4-1, 3-1, 5-1, 5-1 and 4-1. Before that was the 0-0 with Arsenal and the game before that was another 3-1. The fact Arsenal are $4.80 in this game is just too good to pass up. The decision is whether to back them, or lay Manchester City and keep the draw onside. City have scored at least two goals in seven of their past nine Premier League home games against Arsenal, but that goes back a long way and is not relevant against this Arsenal side.
These two sides are a long way ahead of every other team in the league, and this game could go a long way to showing us which horse to back for the title.
This could easily finish level, so I am laying City.
EPL TIPS
The English Premier League (EPL) is the number one football competition in England. It consists of the 20 best teams playing 38 home and away games with the season running from August through to May. Teams are awarded 3-points for a win, 1-point for a draw and no points for a loss with the winner of the league title being the team with the most points at the end of the season. With the best club football competition in the world fast approaching, Betfair wants to help you find a winner by providing expert English Premier League tips on the latest fixtures plus futures markets.
The EPL operates on a promotion and relegation system with the English Football League (EFL). The top-3 teams at the end of the EFL season are promoted to the EPL and the bottom-3 in the table are relegated to the EFL. The current list of teams in the EPL for the 2023/24 season are: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Brighton and Hove Albion, Bournemouth, Burnley, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool, Luton Town, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest, Sheffield United, Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Sign up to Betfair now to keep up to date with the latest EPL markets on Australia's largest betting exchange, and follow along on the Betfair Hub for our expert EPL tips, strategies and analysis.
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2023/24: Manchester City
2022/23: Manchester City
2021/22 : Manchester City
2020/21: Manchester City
2019/20: Liverpool
2018/19: Manchester City
2017/18: Manchester City
