3 minute read

Sam Allardyce faces a tough task in his first game as Leeds United manager, as the relegation-threatened Whites travel to the Etihad Stadium to face an in-form Manchester City team locked in a race for the Premier League title with Arsenal.

Key stats

Manchester City have scored 14 goals in their last three games against Leeds.

Manchester City have only lost twice in their last 60 3pm home kick-offs in the Premier League, both of which were against Crystal Palace.

Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score has been a winning bet in 10 of City’s home Premier League matches, with City to win and over 2.5 goals winning on 14 occasions.

Both teams have scored in Leeds’ last nine Premier League matches, which have averaged 4.5 goals per game.

Verdict

Manchester City’s 3-0 win over West Ham means they remain in pole position in the Premier League with a game in hand. They had to be patient in a lacklustre first half, but eventually their quality showed.

West Ham put bodies behind the ball and took away the passing lanes well in the first 45 minutes, but it was evident City missed Kevin de Bruyne. Bernardo Silva and Riyad Mahrez came narrow far too often in a failed attempt to compensate.

As the half drew on, Erling Haaland started dropping deeper to get touches. When the ball finally made its way across the Irons’ six-yard box, Haaland was too deep to get on the end of it.

Leeds will need to replicate West Ham’s approach to keeping the score down and under new boss Allardyce, that’s likely. It will be nearly two years to the day since 10-man Leeds held City scoreless for 75 minutes and won 2-1 at the Etihad.

Leeds' last outing was a 4-1 defeat at Bournemouth. It was the 10th game in a row in which they have conceded, with the Whites shipping an unhealthy number of goals in their last four and a half matches.

As dire as the situation seems, Leeds had picked up 10 points in six games under Javi Gracia and led Crystal Palace at Elland Road. They were outscored 5-0 from the 45th minute onwards and haven’t recovered since.

There have been rumours that the players were unhappy with the Spaniard, whose in-game management and team selection have left both the fans and Willy Gnonto scratching their heads.

Regardless of the approach, City are going to dominate the ball and it seems inevitable they will win. There’s no value in backing them to win, so it’s worth noting both teams have scored in Leeds’ last nine matches.

Eight of those have featured three or more goals and six have seen the ball hit the back of the net at least four times. Leeds have also scored in three of their five meetings with City since promotion.

Prior to the win over West Ham, who lacked a counter-attacking threat, City had been caught cold at the back in five of six matches but still won all of them. Both teams to score is worth a bet and regardless of what Big Sam does, there should be goals.

Suggested bets

Over 3.5 goals

Both teams to score

Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score