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Love EPL tips? Betfair's English Premier League Analyst provides his EPL tips and analysis for this week's football action. Betting strategies and previews available now.

Brentford vs Bournemouth

Betting Strategy

Back (Match Odds) Brentford for 1 unit @ $2.60

This looks a good match, but it is hard to see a Bournemouth win. In the four Head to Head meetings, the scores were 2-1, 2-2, 2-0 and 0-0 so they have two losses and two draws against this opponent. Both teams are hot and cold with Brentford winning two and losing two of their past four, and Bournemouth have won two, lost one and have one draw in their past four. There is no consistency for us to get on the goals, and I don't want to lay the draw, despite it being the outsider of three, because we get no value laying at $3.75.

I am going for a small play on a home win, as Brentford have won 50% of the Head to Head so the $2.60 represents value. I suppose we could look at goals, despite the inconsistency, as all 10 Brentford games have had a first half goal, and 9/10 had a second half goal so I can easily see the possibility of three goals but at $1.65 that is no great value play. Stick with a home win.

Crystal Palace vs Fulham

Betting Strategy

Back (Match Odds) Draw for 1 unit @ $3.60

Not the best game of the weekend, but I am confident we can get a winning outcome. This London derby is fierce and four of the past five ended level, with neither side giving an inch. Scores of 1-1, 0-0, 2-2, 0-3, 0-0 and 2-1 show how tight a contest it is. A point for Palace is a minimum outcome here, they simply can't afford to lose and a win for Fulham could see them in equal fourth with the likes of Chelsea and Arsenal so that shows how well they are going.

My gut says Fulham win, but Palace are a tricky side. Their only win this season was against Spurs last week, but they drew with Wolves 2-2 on the weekend and with Fulham winning just one of their past four games, I think we may see the points shared here. None of the Palace games have seen more than one first half goal and this will see them adapt a don't lose attitude.

West Ham vs Everton

Betting Strategy

Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over for 2 units @ $1.90

Neither of these two teams are where they want to be. With West Ham in 14th and Everton in 16th, both would be in relegation trouble if not for Wolves, Southampton and Ipswich. Both will see this as a crucial three points. In the past 10 Head to Head West Ham are 5-1-4 and that draw was in 2020. The past five West Ham results against Everton were WLWLW so that would make an Everton win likely to follow the pattern. Last season the away side won both meetings. The Hammers won 3-1 at Goodison and lost 1-0 in London. The season before it was a 2-0 home win and a 0-1 away loss. So in three of the past four, only one team has scored. In total, seven of the past 10 games between them saw only one side find the net.

This season, three of the past four Everton games saw just one side score, with a 0-0 against Newcastle, 2-0 against Ipswich, 1-1 with Fulham and 0-1 against Southampton in that shock loss last week. There have been five West Ham home games this season, and both teams scored in four of them. Every game has had three goals as well. Results were 2-1, 4-1, 0-3, 1-3 and 1-2.

Everton away were 0-1, 2-0, 1-1, 2-3 and 0-4. This is such a crucial game, that despite six of the past eight meetings between them seeing just one team score, and three of the past four being 0-0 at half time, this game will buck those trends and we will get three goals. Both teams badly need the win and won't sit back.

Wolves vs Southampton

Betting Strategy

Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 3 units @ $1.70

Two sides rooted to the bottom of the ladder. When you look at the Head to Head it will be Wolves fans with all the optimism. In the last eight meetings, Wolves have won the past five straight and six of the past seven. Southampton have won zero, with six losses and two draws in the eight meetings. They do often score though. Six of the eight saw both teams score, and the two that they failed, were 1-0 losses. This is not a game to bet on Over 1.5 first half goals, as only one game had two first half goals and the other seven had one or none at all at the break.

That makes it very tough to back the Over 2.5 goals as it seems we won't get a lot of first half help. That leaves Both Teams to Score or a Southampton lay, as they never seem to beat Wolves. The price of the both to score (yes) is $1.70 so a risk of $100 would win you $70.

A lay of Southampton with a risk of $100 would win you $25 so there is much better win/loss ratio on the Both Teams to Score. It does look a great bet. Nine of the 10 Wolves games this season saw both teams score. The only failure was the opening game against Arsenal where they lost 0-2. They have scored (and conceded) against sides like Manchester City, Liverpool, Newcastle, Villa, and even when they lost 2-6 to Chelsea.

The past two Southampton games ended with a 1-0 win against Everton, and a 0-1 loss to City. before that, five of the previous six saw both score. Bottom line, Southampton have to score in this game or relegation is a given. They will be gone if they lose here and don't score. They will push so hard to win this game, as will Wolves, I see both scoring.

Brighton vs Manchester City

Betting Strategy

Lay (Match Odds) Manchester City for 2 units @ $1.77

I simply have to lay City here. They have had an away Champions League game on Wednesday morning against Sporting Lisbon, then face Brighton away. The home side are no pushover and are in a very solid eighth place, and will scent victory here. The Head to Head makes this look like a poor play, as Brighton have just one win in the last 10, losing five of the past six, and are winless since 20/21 where they won 3-2. The past four results were 0-4, 1-2, 1-1, 1-3, so they can score against City.

This City side are wounded. Their star man Rodri is out for the season, and they are not firing on all cylinders right now. They lost to Bournemouth last week, and Brighton are a better side than Bournemouth. Brighton have scored in six straight games and beat Tottenham 3-2 after being behind 2-0. They will hold no fear of City here.

The market has Manchester City way too short, they are a very disjointed side right now, on the bare bones of a squad and have a tough midweek CL game. Brighton have lost only five of their previous 25 home games. They are unbeaten in five, drawing with Wolves (2-2), Forest (2-2), Ipswich (0-0) and beating Tottenham 3-2 and Manchester United 2-1 in their past five games. The last two games of last season they lost to Manchester United and Chelsea, but are unbeaten this year at home. This could really shake up the title race. We can keep the draw onside with a lay.

Liverpool vs Aston Villa

Betting Strategy

Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 2 units @ $1.66

After watching the capitulation against Spurs last week, losing 1-4 after leading 1-0, Villa fans will be fearing a similar beating at Anfield. Or worse. Incredibly, Villa are just seven points off leaders Liverpool and are equal with Arsenal and Chelsea. To think Nottingham Forest are a point above all three of those sides, so what a season they are having. Villa could get blown away here. After starting with four wins in five games, they have won just one of their next five. They lost 4-1 to Spurs, drew with Bournemouth (1-1), Manchester United (0-0) and Ipswich (2-2), they will struggle to get a point here.

Liverpool have won 8/10 and are flying. Their only loss was the stunning defeat to Nottingham Forest and a 2-2 draw with Arsenal the weekend before last. But they do concede. Both teams scored in four of their past five, and Villa have scored in 8/10 games this season. We can back Liverpool at $1.52 and win just over half of what we bet, or get a bit better price, and get on both teams scoring. I am going with Both Teams to Score but the Liverpool win sure looks a safer bet.

Manchester United vs Leicester

Betting Strategy

Lay (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over for 2 units @ $1.50

Manchester United will win this at home now Ten Hag has gone, and Ruud is in the chair, albeit temporarily. The Head to Head sure gives Leicester a chance, only losing two of the past six. They were however, the most recent two, losing 3-0 and 1-0 in season 22/23 before being relegated. With United winning just one of their past six games, it is impossible to back them. Leicester are so poor, it is impossible to back them. Four of the past six meetings were 0-0 at half time and the other two were 0-1 to Leicester at half time. The Over 2.5 is terrible value here and looks a lay.

In the Head to Head, of the eight recent meetings we have, just four went Over 2.5 making that stat even money. This season, both sides went Over 2.5 in 6/10 games making that $1.67. So if we combine those, we get around $1.84 and Betfair have it $1.50. Neither side are scoring for fun, neither can afford a loss, and I can see this being a very cagey one or two goal affair.

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle

Betting Strategy

Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 4 units @ $1.80

Nottingham Forest are third in the league after 10 games. They are a point above Arsenal, two above Chelsea, three above Spurs and seven above Manchester United. They are just having an incredible season. They can't sustain it to win the league as City and Liverpool have too much depth and when things get tough over Christmas and New Year, they may start to struggle. This will be a great test against Newcastle at home. Form says they should win. They are 5-4-1 and to think they have just one loss is incredible. Newcastle are 4-3-3.

The only four recent meetings were 2-3, 3-1, 1-2 and 0-2, and I think the certainty of the season (so far) is that both teams will score here. The half time scores were 2-2, 1-1, 1-1 and 0-0 so all four games were drawn and three went Over 1.5 first half goals. The Over 1.5 first half goals looks amazing value at $2.85 so we have to consider it. The problem is the past five Forest half time scores were 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0. As for Newcastle, half time scores of 1-0, 1-1, 0-1, 0-0 and 0-1 put a huge dent in my confidence.

Both Teams to Score is where the action is here and with 6/10 Newcastle games seeing both teams score, and three of the past four Forest games as well, we should be on a winner. Nine of 10 Newcastle games this season had a first half goal and 9/10 Forest games had a second half goal with with goals almost assured in both halves, we should be sweet for one from each side.

Tottenham vs Ipswich

Betting Strategy

Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 4 units @ $1.70

As boring as another Both Teams to Score bet may sound, this looks the bet of the round, because Spurs seem to love the challenge of conceding then trying to win. They have conceded in eight of their 10 games. Only Everton and Manchester United failed to trouble them, and the sides they failed to score against were Crystal Palace and Arsenal. Ipswich games have seen both score in 7/10 matches. There have been Over 3.5 goals in 7/11 Spurs home matches and in 3/5 Ipswich away matches. So we should see a few hit the back of the net.

We just can't back Spurs at $1.26, and we can't back Over 2.5 goals at $1.35 (although it will land) so we either pass on the game or get on Both Teams to Score. Looks a certainty.

Chelsea vs Arsenal

Betting Strategy

Lay (Match Odds) Arsenal for 1 unit @ $2.50

It is probably already too late for Arsenal to win the league now. They are now seven points behind Liverpool after a loss at Newcastle and Liverpool's come from behind win at Brighton. Blackburn, in 1994, are the only team to come from further back after 10 games and win the title. They trailed Newcastle by eight points but had played a game fewer than the leaders.

Arsenal have an away game in Italy on Thursday morning and Chelsea are at home to the mighty FC Noah (50/1 shots) on Friday morning. Being at home to a side very much out of their depth is a far easier challenge than away to Italian giants Inter Milan. Which game will Arteta focus on? Has he conceded the league is done? I suspect he knows it is. This is a huge chance for Chelsea to nail that title door shut tight and these sides have identical records this season. Both have five wins, three draws and two losses. Chelsea have scored 20 and conceded 12, while Arsenal have scored 17 and conceded 11.

Head to Head past 10, Chelsea are 2-2-6 and have lost four of the past five, with one draw. But this Arsenal side is right off colour at the moment and Chelsea are absolutely flying. They have lost just two games, to Liverpool and Manchester City and played well in draws to Manchester United and Nottingham Forest. The market has Arsenal favourite at $2.50 and after playing away in Italy, that's a shocking price. I am taking them on and will keep the draw onside, I think it's the best they can hope for.

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EPL TIPS

The English Premier League (EPL) is the number one football competition in England. It consists of the 20 best teams playing 38 home and away games with the season running from August through to May. Teams are awarded 3-points for a win, 1-point for a draw and no points for a loss with the winner of the league title being the team with the most points at the end of the season. With the best club football competition in the world fast approaching, Betfair wants to help you find a winner by providing expert English Premier League tips on the latest fixtures plus futures markets.

The EPL operates on a promotion and relegation system with the English Football League (EFL). The top-3 teams at the end of the EFL season are promoted to the EPL and the bottom-3 in the table are relegated to the EFL. The current list of teams in the EPL for the 2023/24 season are: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Brighton and Hove Albion, Bournemouth, Burnley, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool, Luton Town, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest, Sheffield United, Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Sign up to Betfair now to keep up to date with the latest EPL markets on Australia's largest betting exchange, and follow along on the Betfair Hub for our expert EPL tips, strategies and analysis.

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