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Love EPL tips? Betfair's English Premier League Analyst provides his EPL tips and analysis for this week's football action. Betting strategies and previews available now.

Brighton v Southampton

Betting Strategy

Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 3 units @ $1.70

Southampton failed us on Sunday by scoring against Liverpool. They even did it twice! They still lost thanks to two great Mo Salah late goals. The home side should win this, but after that scare in the Liverpool game, we can't touch $1.44 on Brighton. The $8.00 looks quite appealing for Saints and I am quite tempted. With the Over 2.5 goals just $1.52 I am going for some incredible value in this one and going for the massive upset. Brighton have won the first half in 5/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Southampton have had L/L double results in 5/6 away matches.

Added to that, Southampton have lost by two or more goals in 4/6 away matches, so it's a real long shot here. We are talking the 5th placed side facing the bottom placed side. Brighton won the most recent two games 3-1 and 3-1 and before that there were 2-2 and 1-1 results. Saints last won against them in season 20/21. Both sides have scored in 7/8 meetings. Saints have seven losses in eight games and only have a 1-0 win against Everton to show for the whole season. Ten losses in 12 games and here we are tipping them? Ok maybe that is just a pointless bet, as surely they lose again. The Both Teams to Score is $1.70 and that looks ok with 9/12 Brighton games having that outcome which is $1.33, so let's take the $1.70.

Brentford v Leicester

Betting Strategy

Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over for 2 units @ $1.70

The stats say sell the farm and get on Over 2.5 goals here. There have been
Over 2.5 goals in 8/9 Brentford home matches against bottom-six teams and in 5/6 Leicester away matches. Leicester have conceded first in 5/6 away matches. In the only four recent matches when both sides were in the Premier League the results were 1-2 and 1-2 in season 21/22 and last season it was 1-1 and 2-2. So we have both sides scoring in all four, and Over 2.5 landing in three of four.

Looking at games this season, both sides have scored in 10/12 Leicester games and 10/12 Brentford games. For Brentford, 11/12 had a first half goal and 10/12 had a second half goal and for Leicester games, 11/12 first half and 11/12 second half so we can expect goals here and from both teams. I was looking at backing Brentford at $1.73 but with the Over 2.5 goals at $1.70, that's a much better option.

Crystal Palace v Newcastle

Betting Strategy

Lay (Match Odds) Crystal Palace for 1 unit @ $3.00

This is usually a very even contest. In the past six meetings over three seasons, there were three draws (two were 0-0 and the other was 1-1), with one win for Palace (most recent game 2-0) and two wins for Newcastle, 4-0 and 1-0. Both teams have scored in just two of the 10 meetings. Newcastle beat two decent sides in Nottingham Forest and Arsenal, and then lost on Monday to West Ham, so it shows any side can win on any given day. Palace's last three games ended 2-2, 0-2 and 2-2 so they have conceded twice in three games running. The Newcastle away form is always a worry. Just two wins in six, with two draws and two losses. Both teams scored in 5/6 Newcastle away games and it is just one from six for Palace home games. So we can't touch that.

With Newcastle on 18 points and Palace on eight with just one win in 12 games, I am very happy to lay Palace and keep the draw onside. I do think Newcastle will win, so if you are brave, back them at $2.50 otherwise lay Palace with me and keep the draw onside.

Nottingham Forest v Ipswich

Betting Strategy

Back (Match Odds) Draw for 1 unit @ $4.00

Ipswich have been a thorn in a few sides this season, and Forest inflicted the only defeat of the season on Liverpool so this could be a really good game. Forest have 10 more points than Ipswich, but a win for the Tractor Boys gets them out of the relegation zone and maybe up to 15th. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 4/6 Ipswich away matches and Over 3.5 goals in 3/6 Ipswich away matches. Nottingham Forest have scored first in 10/14 home matches against bottom-six teams. After three cracking wins against Crystal Palace, Leicester and West Ham, Forest lost to Newcastle 1-3 and then Arsenal 0-3 last week.

Ipswich have one win, against (you guessed it) Tottenham and have six draws and five losses. With Forest conceding six goals in two games, and both teams scoring in the past four Ipswich games, we can look at either backing the draw or the Over 2.5 goals. There is no Head to Head to look at here. The past four games have seen 14 goals in Forest matches, and also 14 in the past four Ipswich matches.

The Over 2.5 goals is $1.95 and I would have thought that's mad, until I see in 12 games for both sides, it only landed in five games for each team. So that's 42% and a price of $2.40 so there is no way we can take $1.95. I will get on the draw.

Wolves v Bournemouth

Betting Strategy

Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 3 units @ $1.60

I was looking at the Over 2.5 until I scanned the Head to Head record. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 9/12 Wolves home matches and in 12/18 Bournemouth away matches. Bournemouth have won 7/11 away matches against bottom-six teams. But when they play each other, it's a different story. Scores of 1-0, 1-2, 1-0, 0-0, 0-1 and 1-2 means we can't touch goals here. This is the toughest game of the round to dissect. Wolves have two wins all season, yet they came in the last two games. They hammered Fulham 4-1 and beat Southampton 2-0. Before that were two 2-2 draws with Crystal Palace and Brighton. So they have turned things around from their seven losses in the first eight games. Bournemouth however are in a slump. After two wins with a draw in between, They lost to Brighton 1-2 and Brentford 2-3, and that was after beating Manchester City 2-1. What a crazy set of results.

The easiest bet of the weekend is the Both Teams to Score (yes) because in 10 of the past 11 Wolves games, both sides have found the net. The Match Odds is way too hard to predict here so go for the very safe bet of both sides scoring.

West Ham v Arsenal

Betting Strategy

Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over for 2 units @ $1.80

West Ham did a number on Newcastle, but this will be a very different test, even at home. In a very congested table, Arsenal are in 4th place on 22, and West Ham are just seven points back in 15th place. Arsenal must win this game, as with two other sides on 22 points, three on 19 points and two on 18 points, a loss here could see them tumble down the ladder quickly. In the past 10 meetings, West Ham are 1-2-7 and they lost the last meeting 6-0. Before that they won 2-0 and the game before was a 2-2 draw. Arsenal are in an early season crisis, winning just one of their past six Premier League games, which was their most recent, beating Forest 3-0. Losses to Newcastle and Bournemouth and draws with Chelsea and Liverpool have killed any title hopes.

The two best options here are an Arsenal win at $1.56 or the Over 2.5 goals at $1.80 so the prices make the choice easy for us.

Chelsea v Aston Villa

Betting Strategy

Back (Match Odds) Chelsea for 2 units @ $1.81

Chelsea will be beating a very out of sorts Villa side with a bit to spare I suspect. They have won 12/18 home matches while Aston Villa have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 trips to top-six teams. Aston Villa have had L/L double results in 7/11 away matches against top-six teams. The Head to Head past three is not so great for the Blues, with results 2-2, 0-1 and 0-2 but this is a very different side to the one that played those matches, and a very different Villa side. The visitors have won just one of their past seven games, with four draws and two losses to Liverpool and Tottenham. Chelsea beat Leicester, drew 1-1 with Arsenal and Manchester United and beat Newcastle, and their only defeat in 11 games was to Liverpool 1-2. No shame in that. They are in with a possible shot at the title if they can win this, Liverpool lose to Manchester City and they they can beat Liverpool in their next meeting. First things first, they need to take care of Villa.

Manchester United v Everton

Betting Strategy

Back (Match Odds) Manchester United for 2 units @ $1.58

Manchester United are short odds to make short work of Everton. They need to get a home win under the belt of the new manager and they won't get an easier chance this season. They have won 13/19 home matches against bottom-six teams while Everton have lost 10/17 away matches. Man Utd have won by two or more goals in 5/10 home matches against bottom-six teams. The Head to Head past 10, show just one loss for the Red Devils, with five wins and four draws. They have won the past four meetings 2-0, 3-0, 2-0 and 2-1. That's an aggregate of 9-1. All 10 games had a first half goal. Looking at the past six games for the season, Manchester United have two wins and Everton have one.

The past four games for Everton ended 0-0, 0-0, 0-1 and 1-1 so they have just one goal in four games. That's relegation form. Both teams have played 12 games and both sides are 5/12 games with both scoring. So we can't really touch goals. We can back no in the Both Teams to Score or we can just back a home win which really looks a safe bet. If they fail to win this one, then the club is in a seriously bad position.

Tottenham v Fulham

Betting Strategy

Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over for 2 units @ $1.55

It would be just typical of Spurs to lose at home to Fulham after blowing Manchester City away up in Manchester. It's what they do. How do they lose 0-1 to Crystal Palace and Ipswich and then beat a side aiming for five straight titles, Manchester City 4-0? It is this inconsistency that has stopped them winning anything for decades and rarely making the Champions League. They just lose too many games they really should win, and this is one such match. If you are looking for an early Christmas present then the Over 2.5 is as certain an outcome as you can get. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 10/10 Spurs home matches against middle-third teams and in 7/8 Fulham away matches against top-six teams. Looking at the Head to Head in the most recent six games, Spurs are 4-1-1, and the one they lost was the most recent meeting, and they lost it 0-3. Both teams scored in only two of the six.

As mentioned last week, Spurs results are following a pattern of WLWLWLW so this week they are due a loss. They have one draw in 12 games this season, against Leicester on opening day. Spurs games have gone Over 2.5 goals nine times in their 12 games which is 75% or $1.33 so I am very happy to jump on it at $1.55. It's short, but it's value and that is the key word when betting.

Liverpool v Manchester City

Betting Strategy

Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over for 2 units @ $1.65

The outcome of the title could literally be decided right here. If Liverpool win, it's over, and if City win, we are back in business for a title race. It is already eight points and if it becomes 11, then we have a winner before Christmas. Chelsea, Arsenal and Brighton, all on 22 points, have no chance unless City win this and those three teams all win this weekend. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 7/10 Liverpool home matches against top-six teams and Over 3.5 goals in 10/18 Liverpool such matches. Man City have won 13/17 away matches, but have not seen a poor run of form like this for a very long time. The Head to Head past 10 has Liverpool 2-5-3 so it's clear both sides are happy to take a draw when they play each other and this could well be the outcome again here.

Pep simply cannot afford to lose this game, no matter what. The past two meetings were 1-1. The season before that the results for Liverpool against City were 1-4 and 1-0. Both teams have scored in 8/10 meetings between the sides, 6/10 went Over 2.5 and 4/10 went Over 3.5 goals. Seven games had a first half goal and 9/10 had a second half goal. This season so far, Liverpool have one loss and one draw, and won 10/12 games. City have lost their past three games, 0-4 to Spurs, 1-2 to Brighton and 1-2 to Bournemouth. The Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 goals price will both be around the $1.65 and I suspect both will land. I am going with the goals as something is not right with City and another 4-0 loss would not be the shock it was last week.

Winner 2024/25

EPL TIPS

The English Premier League (EPL) is the number one football competition in England. It consists of the 20 best teams playing 38 home and away games with the season running from August through to May. Teams are awarded 3-points for a win, 1-point for a draw and no points for a loss with the winner of the league title being the team with the most points at the end of the season. With the best club football competition in the world fast approaching, Betfair wants to help you find a winner by providing expert English Premier League tips on the latest fixtures plus futures markets.

The EPL operates on a promotion and relegation system with the English Football League (EFL). The top-3 teams at the end of the EFL season are promoted to the EPL and the bottom-3 in the table are relegated to the EFL. The current list of teams in the EPL for the 2023/24 season are: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Brighton and Hove Albion, Bournemouth, Burnley, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool, Luton Town, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest, Sheffield United, Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Sign up to Betfair now to keep up to date with the latest EPL markets on Australia's largest betting exchange, and follow along on the Betfair Hub for our expert EPL tips, strategies and analysis.

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EPL Title:

2023/24: Manchester City

2022/23: Manchester City

2021/22 : Manchester City

2020/21: Manchester City

2019/20: Liverpool

2018/19: Manchester City

2017/18: Manchester City

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