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Love EPL tips? Betfair's English Premier League Analyst provides his EPL tips and analysis for this week's football action. Betting strategies and previews available now.
Arsenal v Everton
Betting Strategy
Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over 2.5 goals for 3 units @ $1.73
Everton earned a reprieve from their date with Liverpool only to find they now have to come to London to face Arsenal. They won't get a lot of joy here though. Arsenal have won 13/14 home matches against bottom-six teams while Everton have lost 9/10 away matches against top-six teams. Everton have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 away matches against top-six teams.
With Arsenal being $1.28 we can't take that so we have to look at goals. I can see Arsenal scoring two or three and if Everton get one we can easily land the Over 2.5. Whilst the Head to Head shows Arsenal 5-1-4, four of their wins have come in the past five meetings and there is now a gulf in class.
Liverpool v Fulham
Betting Strategy
Lay (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 2 units @ $1.90
Liverpool are well rested after the Everton game was postponed, so that will help them here. Not that they need it. It looks as straight forward as the Arsenal game. Liverpool have won 9/11 home matches against middle-third teams while Fulham have lost 8/10 away matches against top-six teams. Liverpool have won by two or more goals in 8/11 home matches against middle-third teams. But at $1.34 we can't back them. Looking at the Head to Head Liverpool have won the past three, 3-1, 4-3 and 1-0.
Liverpool have scored exactly two goals in their past four games and they ended 2-0, 2-0, 2-1 and 2-1. They have conceded three goals in seven games at home so far, winning six games and never conceding more than one goal in a match. They have outscored their opponents 13-3 with the only loss the shock 0-1 reverse to Nottingham Forest. The past four Fulham away games ended 1-1, 2-0, 1-1 and 2-3, so they have scored in three of their past four. I am banking on Liverpool keeping a clean sheet here at Anfield and laying Yes in the Both Teams to Score market.
Newcastle v Leicester
Betting Strategy
Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 2 units @ $1.90
After holding Liverpool to a superb 3-3 result last week, you would have to strongly favour Newcastle to win here. We can't back them though, as once again we see a home favourite priced around $1.35. Even the Over 2.5 goals is $1.50 so I am once again looking to see if both teams can score. Both teams have plenty of goals in their games. There have been Over 3.5 goals in 6/10 Newcastle home matches against bottom-six teams and Over 2.5 goals in 6/7 Leicester away matches. There have been Over 3.5 goals in 4/7 Leicester away matches. Newcastle are 5-5-5 after 15 games and Leicester are 3-5-7. With Ruud van Nistelrooy as the new manager, Leicester will go hard for goals, and the only value option here is to go for the Both Teams to Score market and back Yes. The last meeting was in season 2022/23 and it was 0-0, but a lot has changed since then.
Wolves v Ipswich
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Wolves for 2 units @ $2.00
These are the only two teams about last placed Southampton. They are both on nine points and are both four from safety. The loser here is bang in trouble as far as relegation is concerned. Wolves won two games in a row and have followed that with three straight losses. Ipswich had a lucky win against Spurs and have six draws and eight losses so far. It looks grim for them. The past three Ipswich games were 1-2, 0-1 and 0-1 so they are not scoring many goals. The past four Wolves games were 1-2, 0-4, 2-4 and 4-1, so whilst their games have goals, we can never be sure which team will score them.
Very happy to take Wolves to get back on track here, and while we could lay Ipswich at $4.30, hence keeping the draw on our side, there is far more value in backing Wolves at even money.
Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa
Betting Strategy
Lay (Match Odds) Aston Villa for 2 units @ $2.80
This is a very interesting game. Villa have fallen off a cliff, yet are still in sixth and level on 25 points with Forest. There have been Under 2.5 goals in 8/10 Forest home matches against top-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 11/18 home matches. Aston Villa have lost 11/15 away matches against top-six teams. The only four Head to Head games ended 2-4, 2-0, 0-2 and 1-1 so it's all very even. The home form for Nottingham Forest shows three wins in their past four. They are the only three wins in their seven home matches after they started with two draws and a loss. Villa won three of their first four away games, and have lost three straight now. They lost 0-3 to Chelsea (no shame there), 0-2 to Liverpool (no shame there) and 1-4 to Tottenham (plenty of shame there).
With both teams the same price, I am going with a lay of Aston Villa and keeping the draw safe, even though I think Nottingham Forest will win.
Brighton v Crystal Palace
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Draw for 2 units @ $4.00
Crystal Palace can really kick away from the bottom three and into far calmer waters for Christmas with a win, but it's a very tough ask. They haven't beaten Brighton since 2021 and since then have four draws and two losses. In the past 10 meetings, there were six games that ended 1-1 and I can very much see a draw here. Only two games in the 10 meetings failed to see both teams score, and they ended 0-1 and 1-0. Brighton at home have gone DWDWDDW so they are yet to lose at home. The easiest two plays here are lay Crystal Palace or back the draw. One is far better value than the other, and as Palace have drawn two of their past three away, and Brighton have drawn two of their past three at home, let's hope we get a draw in our Christmas cracker at a nice price.
Manchester City v Manchester United
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Manchester City for 1 unit @ $1.59
Possibly the biggest game of the season for both clubs. With United languishing in 13th place, they could do with a huge boost and knock over their Mancunian rivals. City will be desperate for the win after dropping points in so many games recently. Man Utd have lost 11/15 away matches against top-six teams, so City should be winning. The Head to Head tells a story with City winning five of the past six. They were 3-1, 3-0, 1-2, 6-3, 4-1 and 2-0. That is 19-7 in total. City at home so far have won 5/7 and three of the past four.
Manchester United away from home have one win. A 3-0 moral victory over last placed Southampton. The other games were three losses and three draws. City won't lose at home and can't afford a draw, so I will back them to win, but very small as it's a banana skin for them this derby.
Chelsea v Brentford
Betting Strategy
Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 2 units @ $1.61
We have a fourth home favourite at sub $1.40. There is only one bet I can make here, and that is Both Teams to Score yes. Even the Over 2.5 goals is $1.35. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 8/9 Chelsea home matches against middle-third teams and in 11/14 Brentford away matches, so you can see why it is that price. Brentford have lost 8/10 away matches against top-six teams.
Brentford have scored exactly one goal in five of their past six away games, only failing when drawing 0-0 with Everton. Despite the scoring prowess away, they lost all six away games apart from that Everton draw. I will back them to get one goal here and I think they will lose.
Southampton v Tottenham
Betting Strategy
Back (over/Under 4.5 goals) for 2 units @ $3.20
Spurs simply have to win this game, or all four wheels will come off the wagon. They are just hanging by one wheel nut and a loss here will see a wild reaction from fans. To go 2-0 up at home to Chelsea and lose was a real blow, and whilst Romero going off injured was the catalyst, they can't build a season on one player. Manchester City do that with Rodri and look how that is working out for them. Southampton have lost 5/7 home matches while Spurs have won by two or more goals in 5/8 trips to bottom-six teams. Spurs have won 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
The Head to Head past eight show four wins for Spurs, two draws and two losses. The most recent game ended 3-3. The past three games ended 3-3, 4-1, and 2-3. I see a similar outcome here. If we are going big, we may as well go really big. The past two home games for Saints ended 1-5 and 2-3, and there was also a 2-3 against Leicester two games before them. Going for the Over 4.5 here.
Bournemouth v West Ham
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Bournemouth for 1 unit @ $1.80
Not a great match up for Bournemouth. They are yet to win in six Head to Head meetings. Scores of 1-1, 1-1, 0-4, 0-2, 0-4 and 2-2 show dominance from the Hammers. This season at home, Bournemouth have won 4/5 games, so they love being at home. West Ham have just one win in their past six away, so maybe this is the year Bournemouth get their first win in a long time against this opponent.
The only two options are Bournemouth win or Both Teams to Score score yes at $1.60, but I am going with a solid home win.
EPL TIPS
The English Premier League (EPL) is the number one football competition in England. It consists of the 20 best teams playing 38 home and away games with the season running from August through to May. Teams are awarded 3-points for a win, 1-point for a draw and no points for a loss with the winner of the league title being the team with the most points at the end of the season. With the best club football competition in the world fast approaching, Betfair wants to help you find a winner by providing expert English Premier League tips on the latest fixtures plus futures markets.
The EPL operates on a promotion and relegation system with the English Football League (EFL). The top-3 teams at the end of the EFL season are promoted to the EPL and the bottom-3 in the table are relegated to the EFL. The current list of teams in the EPL for the 2023/24 season are: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Brighton and Hove Albion, Bournemouth, Burnley, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool, Luton Town, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest, Sheffield United, Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Sign up to Betfair now to keep up to date with the latest EPL markets on Australia's largest betting exchange, and follow along on the Betfair Hub for our expert EPL tips, strategies and analysis.
To ensure you capitalise on the 2023/24 EPL season, be sure to follow Betfair's latest updated expert EPL tips across the entire season. Betfair's analysts provide head-to-head selections, total goals picks, goal scorer tips, advice on which individual players we think will play well, game previews, analysis plus much more!
Recent Winners
EPL Title:
2023/24: Manchester City
2022/23: Manchester City
2021/22 : Manchester City
2020/21: Manchester City
2019/20: Liverpool
2018/19: Manchester City
2017/18: Manchester City
