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Timeform ratings returned by the current crop of juveniles suggest they are about five pounds below the average for this time of the year, but there were signs from last Saturday’s running of the Blue Diamond Previews (1100m) that might be about to change.
In fact the Magic Millions Classic run on the Gold Coast earlier this month won by Real Surreal was closer to nine pounds below the five year winning average Timeform rating for the race.
It was therefore pleasing to see Adelaide trained unbeaten filly Miracles Of Life extend her winning sequence to three with an emphatic display in the fillies division of the Previews.
Ridden by Lauren Stojakovic, the filly who was jumping up sharply in grade from her recent all the way Morphettville wins settled back off the hot speed early.
Once produced soon after straightening she accelerated like a good horse quickly putting the race out of her rivals reach. It has been well documented that she ran 0.72 seconds faster than the colts and geldings division won by debutante Dissident.
Apart from the acceleration in the last 300m, there was a lot to like about the win by Miracles Of Life. Her winning margin of 4.3 lengths was the biggest in the last 20 years and her overall race time was just over half a second outside standard.
Also the fact she settled midfield and finished the race off strongly suggests she will have no trouble with 1200m of the Blue Diamond itself but importantly says she is more than a one dimensional type.
In assessing the merit of the performance a Timeform rating of 113+ was awarded. This value is three pounds above the five year winning average for the race but under the possible range of values suggested by historical race standardisation.
Placegetters Diamond Glow and Swing Vote both last start winners in Melbourne and Sydney respectively and were both comprehensively outclassed in the last 200m adding further evidence for a 113+ rating, the second highest rated winner of the preview in the last 20 years.
It is significant that only one previous winner in the last 20 years has run a superior Timeform rating Rostova in 2009 on 116. She was unlucky in the Blue Diamond but won the VRC Sires' Produce Stakes.
In 2000 Ponton Flyer also ran to 113. She went on to run second behind Road To Success in the Blue Diamond Stakes.
Only one fillies preview winner has completed the Blue Diamond double since the first running in 1982 and that was Midnight Fever in 1987. She also won the Prelude before the Diamond and as we will see later that could be significant.
The colts and geldings preview was a messy race with the Peter Moody-trained first race starter Dissident storming home late to defeat the Peter Snowden’s heavily supported Kuroshio right on the finish line. An unlucky third was Moody’s other runner Thermal Current.
All three colts were impressive and will take considerable improvement from the race, especially the winner who raced on raw talent alone and not knowing much about the racing caper.
As the comparative race times suggest, the boys race was assessed as inferior to the fillies but with upside.
In assessing the race, Dissident was awarded a Timeform rating of 106P, a figure perfectly consistent with the value suggested by historical race standardisation but some six pounds under the average winning Timeform rating for the race.
The highest rated preview winner was Bel Esprit, a crack juvenile and sire of champion mare Black Caviar who romped home by over four lengths in 2002 running to a Timeform rating of 121.
Champion juvenile Sepoy ran to 117 in 2011 and Murphy’s Blue Boy 119 winning the preview by seven lengths in 2003.
Dissident’s race time was around 4.5 lengths slower than that recorded by Miracle of Life but there is no doubt Thermal Current should have won the race comfortably. He was badly checked and held up in the straight easing back close enough to last place at the 200m mark, eventually defeated just over a length.
Thermal Current’s raw form was marked up as a result of the interference giving him a Timeform rating of 107. Runner up Kuroshio ran to 110, an increase of two pounds from his previous master rating.
The Preludes in a fortnight are the next round of Blue Diamond lead up races and while Miracles Of Life may be going straight to the Blue Diamond without another run, the Preludes will give punters another opportunity to size up the juvenile form.
Just from a historical standpoint, the preview winners that do go on to win the Blue Diamond all generally race in the preludes.
As mentioned above the only filly to complete the double Midnight Fever in 1987 won both lead up races while of the seven colts or gelding preview winners to complete the double, six have contested the Prelude prior.
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