3 minute read
Keith Melrose reports on Timeform's new leading two-year-old after a weekend that delivered some unexpectedly classy fare.
This week’s Ratings Update was supposed to be the night shift: it’s that weekend between the July meeting and Goodwood where sub-Group two-year-olds contest the big race in Britain and Aidan O’Brien’s second- or third-best middle-distance filly wins the Irish Oaks.
Not so, as it turned out.
Did we see the Nunthorpe winner at the weekend? Whatever the answer, it’s quite remarkable that we look set to have two bites of that cherry come York.
We’ll start with the one you aren’t thinking about. Most Hackwood Stakes winners are euphemistically said to have ‘earned their place’ in the Nunthorpe, at best. Music Master will head to York as a legitimate contender. A performance of 118 on Saturday means his master rating remains unchanged on 122p, the retention of the symbol justified by a troubled passage through the race. Music Master was clearly better than getting up in the final strides implies and is unlikely to have any trouble dropping back to five furlongs.
On Saturday, of all Saturdays, we saw one of those moments that makes you momentarily forget to breathe, or forget that you’re partner’s in the next room and can hear you squawk “’kin ‘ell” at the TV. It was Tiggy Wiggy’s fault, of course, her performance in the Super Sprint one of the best we’ve seen from a juvenile filly in recent years as she stretched six lengths ahead of the 23-strong chasing pack.
Context and the clock both agree that Tiggy Wiggy was as good as she looked on Saturday: by a combination of the two Timeform have decided on a rating of 120, which even then is probably erring on the low side given the evidence we have.
Even so, we doubt Richard Hannon will be toasting a job well done just yet. The pre-race confidence and aggressive ride suggests that the yard were expecting something a bit out of the ordinary. The Hannons are known for the Super-Sprint-as-pot-hunt approach, though they also mastered the Super-Sprint-as-Nunthorpe-prep-race line with Lyric Fantasy back in 1992 and Tiggy Wiggy reportedly follows that path now.
When it comes to York, Tiggy Wiggy has ratings on her side (joint-top with Slade Power when taking a monster 27-lb weight allowance into account) as well as history. Lyric Fantasy ran to just 113 in winning the 1992 Nunthorpe, while the last two-year-old winner of the race, Kingsgate Native, ran to 122 but didn’t receive the additional sex allowance that Tiggy Wiggy will. Put simply, she deserves to be prominent in the betting and has done a lot more than ‘earn her chance’.
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Newbury’s other big story was the return of Al Kazeem. He ran in a listed race on the card, quite a long journey down from the summits he climbed in 2013, when he won the Prince of Wales and the Eclipse. A lack of fitness was to be expected and Al Kazeem travelled well enough through the race, though a disappointing finish and a performance 20 lb below his peak does raise legitimate questions as to whether he’ll ever reach the highest heights again. His new rating of 120+ reflects this without necessarily predicting an ignoble decline.
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The Irish Oaks lost some of its lustre from a ratings point of view with Taghrooda’s switch to the King George this coming Saturday, though to assume it substandard as a result would be wrong. Five-year averages would set par as between 114 and 115 for the Irish Oaks and Bracelet achieved the lower side of that on Saturday evening.
Bracelet is evidently a smart filly who will continue to be a force among her own sex, as will the close-up placed horse horses Tapestry (114p) and Volume (113) by extension. Tapestry is particularly interesting as one whose sail is yet to fully unfurl. Excuses have followed her through her last four starts now, getting edgy on Saturday and not picking up straight away having been set a bit to do relative to the winner, any of those potentially divisive given the small margins involved. She’ll win a Group 1 before her time on the track is through, so long as she continues to develop mentally.
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Sunday’s most relevant contests took place on the Continent. The Prix Robert Papin and the Prix Eugene Adam are both Group 2s and that is probably about as far as the form will extend, though the British-trained winners of the respective races will return with their reputations enhanced.
Kool Kompany won the Robert Papin, running up to his Railway Stakes-winning form in recording a 108 performance. He stays on that figure. Sunday’s evidence suggests that if he’s to beat it he’ll need to return to six furlongs. He wouldn’t need to find much to be competitive in all the big two-year-old races to come, though the chances are he would have done little more than ‘earn his place’.
The Eugene Adam went to Western Hymn, who confirmed the impression left in the Derby that he could have made the frame there by bettering his performance under conditions that, in theory, would be a little less suitable. For recording a comfortable three-length success over what was rendered a substandard field by Shamkiyr’s poor run, Western Hymn has been rated 115p.
Pedigree suggests that Western Hymn could develop into a St Leger contender and his Great Voltigeur entry gives a small hint that he could be taken down that path. Based on recent winners, he would need to up his form to 122 in order to win an average Leger. That's not insurmountable, though current prices around 14/1 probably have him about right.
