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Ratings Update: Conti stands tall over staying rivals

3 minute read

For all that in terms of pure style Silviniaco Conti’s second King George win far outstrips his first, the more prosaic expression of ratings has both efforts essentially equal.

Stock Image - Silviniaco Conti
Stock Image - Silviniaco Conti Picture: various (provided)

He ran up to his very best, first recorded when winning this event last year, and stays on 176.

For both of his King George wins Silviniaco Conti has been expertly handled by Noel Fehily and it’s the difference between the two rides that marks the difference in significance between 2013’s success and what he did on Friday. Where he was ridden in Cue Card’s slipstream in 2013, goading that one into going a little too fast, this year’s bullish, front running ride tells us that Silviniaco Conti is the prey, not the predator, when it comes to the Gold Cup in March. With neither Cue Card nor Bobs Worth seemingly the force of old, you feel that presently no staying chaser can live with Silviniaco Conti at his best.

That certainly goes for Dynaste, who you can only feel sorry for. He ran right up to his best again and stays on 171. Not since Exotic Dancer has a horse produced so many top-class performances for such little return. Given how he kept on, you fancy Dynaste would stay in a Gold Cup and it makes things interesting for connections. As David Pipe pragmatically pointed out after the King George, he’d rather win the Ryanair than place in the Gold Cup. However, the Christmas goings-on put Dynaste ahead of most, perhaps even all bar Silviniaco Conti, in the Gold Cup queue and he has a more straightforward relationship with Cheltenham than that one does. It must be tempting.

Ryanair looks the sensible option for Champagne Fever, at least for this season. He actually ran his best race over fences to finish fourth on Friday and is now rated 165+, but it had looked better than that for a long way only for him to pay late on for failing to settle. Similarly Cue Card shaped with encouragement, travelling as well as any before he faded. He ran to 163 and is now rated on that, with a + to indicate that he might retain more ability (reportedly struck into in the King George), though we wouldn’t be hopeful of him recapturing his 180-rated best.

A final word on the King George goes to third-placed Al Ferof. He could be going for the Gold Cup, Ryanair or even the Queen Mother depending on which reports you believe. Rated 169 (his performance figure from the King George), Al Ferof would need others to underperform in the Gold Cup and would be slight odds-against in a match with Dynaste should they both go in the Ryanair. The Queen Mother could be suitable and whether or not he’d be interesting there depends on what incarnations of Sire de Grugy and Sprinter Sacre we see this season. Either at their best would beat Al Ferof over two miles, whatever the conditions.

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To so much as put a caveat on Faugheen’s performance in the Christmas Hurdle based on the fact that neither Sign of A Victory nor Irving were able to provide satisfactory opposition on the day would be to take a contrary view without any real grounds for it. Even with eight-length runner-up Purple Bay (160) running up to form and the unexposed Blue Heron (147) improving by only a couple of pounds, that still gives us a performance rating of 171 on the winner. He keeps his p, too, owing to how much more he had to give on Friday. Shy of actually beating his main Champion Hurdle rivals, there really is nothing more for Faugheen to prove ahead of Cheltenham.

Discussions about Faugheen’s price for the Champion Hurdle, which is as short as even-money in places, are essentially a reheated version of a debate we’ve had a dozen times before. More novel is this: what price about loyalty? Ruby Walsh was unerringly loyal to Kauto Star and has been the same to Hurricane Fly, but could he really be as torn as he lets on about which of Willie Mullins’s runners he’d ride in the Champion Hurdle? Hurricane Fly, rated 173 at his best, is one of the greats but has had his time as the brightest star in the sky. Faugheen is the next in line, in fact he's there already as far as we're concerned, and you wouldn’t bet against him eclipsing even Hurricane Fly’s best before long.

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Where we really musty apply cold water from Kempton on Boxing Day is to Coneygree’s success in the Kauto Star. His performance was less catch-me-if-you-can, more you-blunder-I-plunder. As our report puts it, he kept his feet while others lost theirs and, as such, we’ve given him a cautious rating of 149p. That puts Coneygree within hailing distance of the best staying novices, but with a little more to prove.

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We can round up Kempton’s Saturday card in despatches. The Desert Orchid was the big race but it was a spectacle more than it will ever be a race for serious analysis, Special Tiara’s jumping having been of greater note than his form. He’s been rated 157?, the query a result of us being unable to foresee circumstances in which he’d get to do the same again. Runner-up Balder Succes (conceded 5 lb) goes back up to 159.

The Wayward Lad, ostensibly the novice equivalent of the Desert Orchid, was surely a better race this year, pound for pound. Vibrato Voltat moves up to 151p for his win and, irrespective of what you made of Vautour on Boxing Day, he requires serious consideration for the Arkle now, clearly a different proposition over fences.

There also needs to be a quick mention for Bivouac, winner of the juvenile on the card. Nothing else got close to reeling in the well-ridden San Benedeto and Bivouac did it with a double penalty. He therefore goes up to 143p, which puts him among the leading pursuers of his stablemate Peace And Co.

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Chepstow had the biggest juvenile action on Saturday, the Grade 1 Finale Hurdle, which was won in fine style by Britsol de Mai (148p). He’s the only juvenile we’ve seen in Britain so far this season with the potential to make a race of it with Peace And Co (157p), who happens to be in the same ownership. Best odds suggest that Messrs Munir and Souede are around 7/4 to win the Triumph Hurdle and we would in turn suggest that such an assessment is a little cautious on all known evidence.

The Chepstow card belongs to the Welsh National, though from a ratings perspective it’s just another high-end handicap. It was also just another Welsh National in which being prominent was virtually a prerequisite for playing a hand in the finish, so for the second time in as many days Tom Scudamore’s mount in the big race gets our sympathy. Monbeg Dude really is a standing dish, not just in these big handicaps but at the sharp end of them, too, and he emerges with significant credit from Saturday. Still rated 147, strictly ahead of his BHA mark (146) which is unlikely to change, he may yet add to his win in this race a little less than two years ago.

The Welsh National was won by Emperor’s Choice, who was essentially meeting his perfect conditions and went with equivalent zest in the testing ground. He’s now rated 136 and, by the fact of how ideal the race is for him, we doubt he can go much higher. Not that his connections will be too concerned.


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