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The 2015 renewal of the Grand Prix de Paris probably represents the best chance of a British-trained winner of the race since Henry Cecil sent Beat Hollow over to victory 15 years ago.

Partly, this is simply a numbers game: a third of the six-strong field is British-trained, that field size the smallest for this race since Bago beat just three home in 2004.

Form considerations also give the Brits a strong chance, most obviously in the case of Storm The Stars, who tops the Weight-Adjusted Timeform Ratings for the race. He has been a model of consistency since winning his maiden at Leicester back in April, winning a Derby trial at Goodwood before placing in both the Epsom and Irish Derbies. Neither Golden Horn nor Jack Hobbs lie in wait this time, though this will be Storm The Stars’ fifth race at around this distance, and the feeling is that he’s been seen to best effect at Epsom and (especially) the Curragh.

Improvement is far more likely from the other British entry, the David Simcock-trained Balios, winner of the King Edward Stakes at Royal Ascot last time on just his third start. Balios was upped in grade and trip when winning at Ascot, but he continued his progression in some style, having to come wide down the home straight and doing well to reel in subsequent Bahrain Trophy winner Mr Singh, value for more than the length-and-a-quarter winning margin on the day. Balios will face a higher calibre of opponent here, but his progressive profile has plenty to recommend him and he looks to us to have a strong chance of giving Britain a first win in the race in 15 years.

Being a French Group 1, the Grand Prix de Paris has naturally been dominated in recent times by Andre Fabre, who has won the race 13 times in total, including three of the last four renewals. Fabre fires just one bullet this year in Ampere, who looks like the biggest danger to Balios in that he is an unexposed, twice-raced, potential improver, and represents highly-respected connections. On bare form though, his narrow defeat of Cape Clear Island, previously beaten at Group 3 level in Britain, is some way off that of both Storm the Stars and Balios. He is favourite on most lists, but we’d say that’s down to connections more than achievement.

Others on the home side include Silverwave, who put up one of the best performances in the Prix de La Force in recent years when beating the Criterium de Saint-Cloud winner Epicuris by four lengths. Silverwave is respected on that effort, but will need to bounce back from a disappointing run in the Prix du Jockey Club, where he seemingly had few excuses after being well placed throughout.

Erupt makes up the French trio and, being unbeaten in three starts, including in the Group 3 Prix du Lys last time, cannot be taken lightly, though he is making a bigger jump in class than most.

Aidan O’Brien remains the only trainer besides Henry Cecil to wrestle the Grand Prix de Paris away from French hands this century. This year he sends over just one horse, Archangel Raphael, in a bid to win the race for a third time. Archangel Raphael saw out 12 furlongs well, albeit dictating a three-runner affair, on his reappearance this season at Fairyhouse at the beginning of this month, finding plenty in the final furlong to beat a subsequent winner. Archangel Raphael remains open to improvement, but this big step up in class may be more reflective of the below-par crop of middle distance three-year-old colts in the O’Brien yard this season, rather than a supreme vote of confidence.

Recommendation:

Back Balios in the Grand Prix de Paris

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