3 minute read

It has been observed that “you can have too much of a good thing”. Well, where top-quality jumps racing is concerned, it seems that the occasional nine-race card is not “too much”, oh no.

In an echo of the last two days of the 2008 Festival – when the cancellation of Wednesday’s card due to high winds meant there were 10 races on Thursday and nine on Friday – this Saturday’s meeting at Cheltenham has benefited from the demise of Ascot last weekend and puts on a nine-race extravaganza which includes the transferred Grade 1 Clarence House Chase.

There are many different ways of tackling such a banquet, but one that is arguably still under-used is that of timing and sectionals.

Accurate timing comparisons over jumps are much easier now than they once were, thanks to improvements in official data, and Timeform has long since built up a large body of its own sectional information which helps further in putting performances in their proper context.

Timing and sectionals describe accurately what has happened, and Timeform’s unique Early Position Figures (EPFs) assist in predicting how races may be run in the future. Together, they are a powerful combination.

For instance, we can predict from EPFs, as well as from the specific sectionals of individual runners, that the Clarence House Chase (due off at 1:45) will be strongly-run despite there being just seven declared runners.

Royal Regatta and Special Tiara are out-and-out front-runners, as was Uxizandre when last seen. The odds-on favourite Un de Sceaux tracked the headstrong Ar Mad before winning the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown last time but still went a bit faster than par and had little to spare at the finish: his time up the run-in was fully 2.0s (roughly 10 lengths) slower than Altior’s on the same card.

Un de Sceaux suffered more obviously when getting involved in a speed duel with Special Tiara in last year’s Queen Mother Champion Chase. There was no disgrace in his being beaten by Sprinter Sacre that day, but he held Special Tiara by just a nose for second having gone to the front exuberantly four from home when the pace was still hot.

Un de Sceaux is the likeliest winner of the Clarence House, but a pace burnout would not be a surprise and could change the dynamics drastically.

The one who may profit most is Top Gamble, who just so happens to have a good record in strongly-run contests. He has his limitations, but ran right up to his best when third under top-weight at this course last time. Top Gamble is not far behind Un de Sceaux at his best and looks worth a bet at double-figure odds.

Even more eyes will be on the following race, the Cotswold Chase (2:15), in which the short-priced favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Thistlecrack, trials.

Anyone who took note of the Timeform Sectional Debrief shortly after Christmas will know that Thistlecrack failed to impress on the clock when winning the King George VI Chase at Kempton, however good he was in other respects.

His overall time would have been more than 2.0s (or 10 lengths) slower than fellow-novice Might Bite’s on the same card had that one not fallen at the last when clear. Thistlecrack was slow from three out, but had admittedly put in a very fast sectional just before that to overwhelm rivals who closed up again late.

We know from his hurdling exploits that Thistlecrack has immense ability, but there are still question marks about him over larger obstacles, and this promises to be a searching test, with Cheltenham increasing the Cotswold Chase distance by nearly a furlong from what was advertised.

Both Many Clouds and Smad Place are rock solid, if slightly below Gold Cup-winning standard, and both ran good times on their latest starts: Many Clouds in winning at Aintree and Smad Place in coming out marginally best at the weights in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury. Given his odds, and the possibility that he achieved less than it might have appeared on Boxing Day, Thistlecrack has to be a lay.

The Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase (12:35) is not the classiest contest on a terrific card, but it may well be the most competitive. Several of the 14 contenders have very solid efforts, backed up by the stopwatch, to their name.

The race Ibis du Rheu finished second in at Chepstow looked a really good one at the time, but the horses he split that day have both run poorly since. Indeed, they ran too poorly to be true, given how good the race’s time looked that day, and it seems worth giving the form another chance.

Singlefarmpayment, Dark Flame and Mercian Prince also have claims judged on the clock, but Ibis du Rheu could additionally prove suited by the return to around two and a half miles and gets the vote.

The Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at 3:25 is a slightly substandard affair but presents what may be an appealing betting opportunity. Neither Coo Star Sivola nor William Henry has run a fast time this term, with the former getting involved in a remarkably slow-motion finish on this course last time. Most of the others have little to brag about on overall or sectional times, either.

It is possible, however, that Mr McGo is an exception, in that he ran the extended 19f hurdle at Chepstow recently much faster than did the other two winners on the day and finished his race powerfully with a 54.9s sectional for good measure.

It looked as if the potentially useful Fly Camp might have been found out for fitness that day, but it is also possible that he caught a tartar in Mr McGo, who is likely to try to serve it up from the front again here with no clear pressure on him for that role. He is worth a punt at what should be a big price.

The other races make more appeal from a spectating than a punting point of view, with the possible exception of the finale (due off at 4:35), in which the claims of Drumcliff may be clearer after Mr McGo has run earlier. Drumcliff ran that one to a length at Bangor before being an unlucky loser of a handicap at Kempton and has the ability (if not definitely the attitude) to win off today’s mark.

Charli Parcs and Defi du Seuil have good times to their names in the opener (midday kick-off), especially the latter. Shantou Flyer was helped by a strong pace last time but could get something similar in the Handicap Chase at 1:10.

There is nothing wrong with Unowhatimeanharry’s claims in the Cleeve Hurdle at 4:00, but he has to concede weight to several of his rivals, including Ballyoptic – who might have run him close but for falling at Ascot last time – and Cole Harden, who overdid things up front last time.

Whatever happens on Trials Day at Cheltenham, it should provide some significant clues to future events. A Debrief of the sectionals and times will be appearing on these pages afterwards.

Recommendations:

1 pt win IBIS DU RHEU

1 pt win TOP GAMBLE at 12/1

lay THISTLECRACK to lose 3 pts

1 pt win MR MCGO