3 minute read

The Everest is only four weeks away and with the field now taking shape, who is most likely to scale the peak and who is likely to be left at base camp.

At this stage Chautauqua, English, Fell Swoop, She Will Reign, Houtzen, Redzel and Brave Smash have booked their place in the field with Redkirk Warrior, Vega Magic and Russian Revolution the next likely to be confirmed.

While it is the inaugural running of the Everest, a probable winning figure can be extrapolated from past renewals of both the Group 1 TJ Smith Stakes [1200m] and Group 1 Lightning Stakes [1000m].

In the last five years the average Timeform winning rating of both the TJ Smith Stakes and Lightning Stakes is 129 — world class standard.

Star sprinters Black Caviar and Lankan Rupee pull both averages up, however a figure of around 125 - 127 is expected to land the prize on October 14.

So who has the capacity to reach that mark?

Chautauqua: 127

Vega Magic: 126p

Redzel: 124

Redkirk Warrior: 122+

Menari: 122p

The Contenders

Chautauqua - Timeform Rating: 127

The clear favourite since betting opened, the grey flash indicated he is right on track with an eye catching run in Saturday's Group 2 The Shorts [1100m].

In what can only be described as 'humming", Chautauqua found the line well and was close to in-front just 100m after the post.

Chautauqua recorded 32.09 seconds for his last 600m, with his quickest section between the 800m and 600m (10.54 seconds).

Once again he emphasised that his asset is sustained speed, he is rarely the fastest horse, which is often misunderstood with Chautauqua.

Of the nine runners who faced the starter on Saturday, only Fell Swoop returned a slower top speed than Chautauqua.

The trick here being Chautauqua can sustain his top speed for longer, that's what makes him the great sprinter that we all know and love.

Chautauqua's career best performances have come when a fast tempo has been set, that is the first half the race is run faster than the second half.

His sustained speed allows him to work home over the top of his rivals as while they are slowing down, he is slowing down slower, hence he appears to be flying late, when in truth he isn't going any faster, just sustaining speed.

With a master Timeform rating of 127, he remains the deserved favourite.

Vega Magic - Timeform Rating: 126p

Put the writing on the wall first up before taking a good step forward in the Memsie Stakes [1400m] last start, returning a Timeform rating of 126p.

A rating of 126p is a serious shot fired this early in the season - the mark having only been matched or bettered by Weekend Hussler (126) and So You Think (128) in the recent history of the Memsie.

Further highlighting the significance of the mark; there are only three horses currently in training with a higher rating to their name; Winx (134), Hartnell (128) and Chautauqua (127).

Questions of whether Vega Magic can measure up to The Everest should really be flipped. Can The Everest measure up to him? The answer in the case of Chautauqua is, sure, under the right scenario.

However if the big grey flash is off his game, then Vega Magic is sure to be hard to beat in the big dance.

Redzel - Timeform Rating: 124

Returned as good as ever in the Concorde Stakes [1000m] before bringing up his fourth straight win and a new career peak in Saturday's Group 2 The Shorts [1100m].

He once again erased claims that he is a wet-tracker and has certainly earned his chance to take on the big boys.

From his last seven starts, Redzel has won five, with only defeats (narrow) coming at the hands of English and Russian Revolution.

May lack the talent of the above two, however he is airborne and given his favourable racing pattern, he is sure to make his presence felt.

Redkirk Warrior - Timeform Rating: 122+

Won a dawdling Group 1 Newmarket [1200m], a performance (30-1 SP) which up until last Saturday remained an outlier.

Unable to showcase his talent on the wet tracks during Sydney's "big wet", Redkirk Warrior was back in a big way, making light work of his rivals in Saturday's Group 2 Bobby Lewis [1200m].

Trainer David Hayes has never been one to hide his high opinion of the Warrior and after Saturday, you can see why.

Although again suited by the slow tempo, he dropped his rivals in a few strides and displayed a turn of foot which is world class.

Can he produce such a performance off a fast tempo? That remains his biggest query, however given he is bred for stamina, it's hard to suggest he won't be able to.

Prior to coming to Australia, he won on debut over 2000m at Great Yarmouth, before sold and transferred to Hong Kong, where he went on start favourite in the 2015 Hong Kong Derby [2000m], finishing 11th.

It is crazy then to think just two years on he could be crowned the world's best sprinter - right?

With a Timeform rating of 122+, Redkirk Warrior will be given every opportunity to utilise that '+' in the Everest and he shapes as one of the major players.

Menari - Timeform Rating: 122p

The clear 'X' factor following his ultra impressive display in the Group 2 Run To The Rose Stakes [1200m].

Much like Vega Magic, Menari put the writing on the wall first up, before springboarding off that performance, returning a Timeform rating of 122p.

Astern, Exosphere, Pierro & Smart Missile performed similarly in the same event, before all rounding out their Spring campaigns rated >=124.

Another comparison to draw is through Star Turn.

Up early (given the new Spring programming), Menari's first up performance marginally bettered that of Star Turn who won the Group 3 San Domenico [1100m] on the same weekend last year.

Star Turn went on to be narrowly beaten in the Group 2 Run To The Rose [1200m] before easily disposing of his elder rivals in the Group 2 Schillaci Stakes [1100m] - ran a week earlier than the Everest this year.

We will know more after Saturday, but if able to follow a similar progression, Menari will no doubt be hard to beat in the Golden Rose, before staking a serious claim if securing a slot in The Everest.