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Talking Points: Derby Day 2024

3 minute read

We look at some big ratings and key points to take from Derby Day.

ATISHU winning the Empire Rose Stakes at Flemington in Australia.
ATISHU winning the Empire Rose Stakes at Flemington in Australia. Picture: Racing Photos

Thousand Guineas Picture

Two key lead ups to the Thousand Guineas kicked off Derby Day. Aeliana won the Carbine Club impressively and drew instant comparisons to stablemate Fangirl who won this race by a similar margin in 2021.

On the Racing & Sports ratings, Aeliana has actually run a slightly better rating than Fangirl, who went to 110 that day. Aeliana comes in at 111 which is the third highest rating winner in the past ten years, headed by Dalasan (115) and Comin' Through (113).

Fangirl didn't have the option to go to the Thousand Guineas as it wasn't placed where it is now, but Aeliana, as it stands now, would be the highest rated horse there, with Tuesday's Amanda Elliott a chance for something else to put their hand up.

Aeliana's win out-rated The Vanity one race after over 1400m won by Zeitung, who has run to 108 on the RAS ratings. There was only small margins between the first six home here and there's far more exposed form around them. I'd be taking Aeliana comfortably over Zeitung in a Thousand Guineas.

AELIANA winning the Channel 9 Carbine Club Stakes
AELIANA winning the Channel 9 Carbine Club Stakes Picture: Colin Bull / Sportpix

Oaks Picture

The Wakeful has been the key lead up to Thursday's VRC Oaks and this year looks no different with Treasurethe Moment  holding off Powers Of Opal with a huge gap back to the rest.

A slowly run race here and they've really flown home, albeit probably assisted by the tailwind in the straight, and the winning rating is right up there with Treasurethemoment running to 109 on the RAS ratings, which is the highest Wakeful rating in the past ten years.

Three horses have done the Wakeful/Oaks double in that time: Willowy, Miami Bound and Aristia, while Personal and Zardozi placed in the Wakeful and went on to win the Oaks in that time. Here are all the ratings from those horses and how much they improved to win the Oaks on Thursday.

Year Horse Wakeful Rating/FP Oaks Rating
2023 Zardozi 102 (2nd) 111 (+9)
2021 Willowy 103 (1st) 105 (+2)
2020 Personal 105 (2nd) 109 (+4)
2019 Miami Bound 106 (1st) 110 (+4)
2018 Aristia 106 (1st) 108 (+2)

Treasurethemoment running to 109, and Powers Of Opal going 105 in second, are excellent Oaks trials, and I think the runner up is the one to be with.

She wasn't an unlucky loser because the winner has still run the fastest last 400/200m but Powers Of Opal just had too much work to do chasing, and I think she wants a tougher staying test than that.

The expected rating had Powers Of Opal going 109 vs Treasurethemoment 104 and while that isn't everything, I think you have to give Powers Of Opal the edge on Thursday. Lose the battle, win the war etc etc.

TREASURETHE MOMENT winning the Wakeful Stakes at Flemington in Australia.
TREASURETHE MOMENT winning the Wakeful Stakes at Flemington in Australia. Picture: Racing Photos

Coolmore

Switzerland was an outstanding winner of the Coolmore Stud Stakes and just drilled home the fact that when Waller sets one for a big race, you just have to bonus them, because he was the one who hit this with no other target races on the way.

The win was electric and has rated very highly, coming in at 125 on the RAS ratings.

That's the equal second highest rating ever in the Coolmore, only bettered by Weekend Hussler at 126 in 2007.

125 sits alongside Home Affairs, Flying Artie, Exceedance and Gold Edition as recent winners and is backed up by the strongest time figure on the card. He's a very good colt, it just depends how much more we get to see of him from now on.

SWITZERLAND winning the Coolmore Stud Stakes
SWITZERLAND winning the Coolmore Stud Stakes Picture: Colin Bull / Sportpix

Derby

Goldrush Guru was given a great ride by Jamie Kah to win the Victoria Derby and her decisions to push on and settle on pace was the key to victory.

He's run to 110 on the RAS scale which is on the low side for the past ten years, but becoming more like the typical winner. Tarzino, Prized Icon and Hitotsu all went 116 in that period while Riff Rocket ran to 115 last year.

Scary, China Sea and El Castello were all very good from the back and the sectionals just ever so slightly hint that Scary was as good, if not a better run than the winner, especially considering he pulled up with cardiac arrythmia.

In terms of looking forward, I don't see much out of this developing into a genuine Group class stayer past their three-year-old season, but the winner is a nice horse.

GOLDRUSH GURU winning the Victoria Derby at Flemington in Australia.
GOLDRUSH GURU winning the Victoria Derby at Flemington in Australia. Picture: Racing Photos

Empire Rose

One of the better races visually on the day with Atishu charging home to collar Amelia's Jewel on the line, the two favourites and best horses clearing out from the rest.

Atishu has recorded some big late splits to run Amelia's Jewel down and run to 117 on the RAS ratings, which is the third-highest Empire Rose winner in the past ten years, only bettered by Pride Of Jenni (121) and Melody Belle (118).

Atishu actually ran a better rating in this race last year when beaten by Pride Of Jenni, running to 118 before backing up to win the Champions Stakes with a career peak of 120.

She looks perfectly on track to do that again next week but bumps into a pretty handy 132 rated stablemate…

Amelia's Jewel going 116 is in line with her run in the King Charles and slightly off her 118 peaks, but I think we know now that she isn't going to be a 120 horse likely ever.

She can win a Group 1 mare's race if she manages to dodge a couple of the top ones, she was just beaten by a superior horse in Atishu on Saturday.


Racing and Sports

Flemington

Saturday, 02nd November 2024

1
12:20
(local)

Channel 9 Carbine Club Stakes (G3)

Age: 3yo Type: OPEN
AUD $503,025
1600m TURF GOOD
1
12:20
(local)
AUD $503,025
1600m GOOD

Channel 9 Carbine Club Stakes (G3)

Age: 3yo Type: OPEN
FP Silk Horse, Age & Sex
Sire & Dam
Jockey
Trainer
SP
WT
1st 6. AELIANA (NZ) 3yo F
CASTELVECCHIO (AUS) - TEMOLIE (AUS)
JAMES MCDONALD
CHRIS WALLER
$5.5
56kg
Star Thoroughbreds Pty Ltd, Boeara Holdings, Mrs A M Howlett, Mrs K A Pailthorpe, Felgate Holdings, Paramount Racing, R B T Aurisch, Mrs D M Handley, W A Smith, B K Hudson, EST J A Hudson & Forbson Group

Sales Information

2nd 8. ANOTHER PROPHET (AUS) 3yo F
BRAZEN BEAU (AUS) - SET TO SKELTER (AUS)
ETHAN BROWN
CIARON MAHER
$10
55kg
Bell River Thoroughbreds (Mgr: A J Ferguson), Brookava Thoroughbreds (Mgr: D K Walker), R G Hogno, Mrs M Hogno, Miss J Hogno & J F Pearce
3rd 1. FEROCE (NZ) 3yo G
SUPER SETH (AUS) - CORINTHIA (NZ)
BILLY EGAN
DOMINIC SUTTON
$2.4
57kg
Sutton Racing Pty Ltd (Mgr: D E A Sutton), S Chappell, S S Roth, T M Dickson, P M Hayden, B G Arnel, R & C Racing (Mgr: R J Bresnan), AFL Premiers (Mgr: J Kanga), N Dimitrakis & J Petrakis

Sales Information

4th 2. STYLISH SECRET (NZ) 3yo G
SWEET ORANGE (USA) - SCARLET'S SECRET (NZ)
LUKE NOLEN
MICHAEL NOLAN
$8.5
57kg

Sales Information

5th 5. KING OF ENTERPRISE (NZ) 3yo G
IMPENDING (AUS) - HIGH VOGUE (IRE)
HUGH BOWMAN
TRENT BUSUTTIN & NATALIE YOUNG
$15
57kg

Sales Information

6th 7. CANARA (AUS) 3yo F
I AM INVINCIBLE (AUS) - KARAVALI (NZ)
BLAKE SHINN
CHRIS WALLER
$5
55kg

Sales Information

7th 3. ACTA NON VERBA (AUS) 3yo C
BLUE POINT (IRE) - MEMENTO (AUS)
DAMIAN LANE
DANNY O'BRIEN
$9.5
57kg

Sales Information

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