3 minute read

Caulfield Cup & Everest day threw up some interesting results and some big ratings.

Caulfield Cup

Duke De Sessa was ridden outstandingly well by likeable hoop Harry Coffey to win the Caulfield Cup. Sectionally, he's absolutely nailed the tempo, and it's won him the race.

That said, the horse has still had to run a clear new career peak, running to 121 with Timeform, which is just eclipsed by Buckaroo, who carried 2.5kg more, running to 124.

Duke De Sessa's previous peak was 115 when winning a Listed race in Ireland over 2377m, and his best rating in Australia was 114 first-up this campaign over 2000m with 61kg.

Once again the Ciaron Maher stable has got a stayer to run a new peak on the day which just has to be taken into account over these sorts of trips. That said, I doubt if the Duke will ever go better than this given the efficiency of the ride he got and his previous profile.

Buckaroo was outstanding and there's a good case to be made he was an unlucky loser. His sectional mark-up coming from too far back suggests he would've won if closer to the pace, which many (myself included) thought he would be.

In terms of a Melbourne Cup picture, this is tricky, because so many of these have been beaten a long way.

Buckaroo has again done nothing to suggest more ground will be an issue. 3200m is another beast altogether, but off this, being the big, flashing light closer in a well-run Caulfield Cup, he has to go to Flemington with some chance.

I thought Land Legend was okay given the circumstances- he raced fiercely, didn't appear to love Caulfield and racing on the inside at all, and made life tough for Purton. He'll be better suited at Flemington over two miles on dry ground but has a bit to make up and can't afford to do things wrong next time.

In all honesty I don't think the Melbourne Cup winner was here, but the only two I could see winning out of it are Buckaroo and Land Legend- the rest have just been beaten too far.

Thousand Guineas Prelude

I wanted to touch on this race because I think there could be some value in the Thousand Guineas future's market.

I'm surprised Too Darn Lizzie isn't favourite for that race off this win. To the eye it may have looked as if she got a picnic in front but she's run along at a good tempo and won convincingly.

She's run to 108 with Timeform which is pretty good for this race. It's the same rating Coeur Volante ran last year, who started $3.75 in the Thousand Guineas in what looked a much stronger edition than what we'll see this year.

Only Smart Melody (115) has run a better rating to win the Prelude in the past ten years, and she started a strong favourite in the Group 1.

Too Darn Lizzie is still $15 for the Thousand Guineas, and I think she's a better chance than that. The closer who will relish 1600m is Matisse, but the Waterhouse & Bott leader off an easy win in the main lead-up looks the bombproof play.

The Everest

Bella Nipotina was rewarded for her incredible consistency to take out The Everest which was a Group 1 for the first time.

Ironically, it's the lowest rating Everest we've ever seen, and the most even.

Taking out I Wish I Win, who pulled up lame and was tailed off, just 3.3 lengths covered the field top to tail, with less than 2 lengths covering the first eight.

They ran a time of 1.08.76, 0.03 seconds slower than the Sydney Stakes won by Overpass, and only 0.07 seconds faster than Far Too Easy in The Kosciuszko.

Bella has run to 123 on the R&S scale which is equal to her peak. Giga Kick has run to 122 on the same scale which is four pounds off his peak, which actually came over 1400m in the All Aged Stakes. His Everest win rated 125, while Classique Legend's Everest is clearly the best at 128.

Speaking of Overpass, he has gone outstandingly again. He's run to a new peak here of 122, so theoretically he'd have been nosed out by Bella Nipotina if he'd run in The Everest (although it doesn't work like that).

His past seven starts now read: 119, 120, 120, 112, 119, 120, 122. Great stuff. He has the Winterbottom at his mercy again, and if they come to Flemington for the Champions Sprint, he'd go awfully close to winning given a few are likely to stay in Sydney.

King Ceolwulf

This was the performance of the day from a ratings' perspective with Ceolwulf mowing down a brave Pride Of Jenni to take out the King Charles III.

As anyone could see, Pride Of Jenni has done too much work early and was a sitting shot late. Strictly speaking, she's often put in a 'negative split' (i.e. the first part of her race is faster than the last), which can often work for her, but this was too much.

Her finishing speed percentage here (with 101 being optimal) was 97.5, while Ceolwulf's was 102.3. In Jenni's four highest rating performances on the R&S scale- the Queen Elizabeth (129), All-Star Mile (127), Feehan (126) and Champions Mile (125), she's had an average finishing speed of 98.3%, and that is dragged down by her Queen Elizabeth win, where her % was 96.6%, but the others were so incredibly negative (Via Sistina was 109.7%) that it didn't matter.

Having Major Beel really kick up is an interesting talking point. Clearly it was detrimental to his own chances, but he did start 100-1 so wasn't expected to finish much closer.

The Randwick mile is incredibly fair, so Pride Of Jenni wasn't covering any more ground by being wide early- that is irrelevant. The case to be made that it hurt her chances is that she had to go faster early to cross him and find a rhythm, which I think is fair.

That said, the others are under no obligation to hand up and let her lead how she likes. Plenty of people (mainly jockeys) moan about how she gets her own way, so to see someone take her on is more than fair.

Realistically, Bates could've dropped in behind Major Beel and taken a sit. She would've been in lengths of clean air and still run her race at an above average tempo, where she may well have won if doing so, but naturally the plan was to lead at all costs, as she's accustomed to. It almost would've been as daring a move to take a sit on Pride Of Jenni as it was to go and lead a Queen Elizabeth by 30 lengths!

Anyway, Ceolwulf was outstanding chasing her down with his stamina coming to the fore. He's run to a big new career peak of 125, up from 121 in the Epsom.

If he were backing up in the Cox Plate, he'd bring the highest last-start rating into the race, and would relish a strongly run 2000m. He's a very good horse, and ideally for racing fans, is a gelding! I expect we see him prominent in all of the top weight-for-age races going forward.

Jenni is a fascinating runner now in a Cox Plate. This was a very tough run, and she's got to come back to Melbourne and front up seven days later. Going up in trip should suit off this, and I can't see anything in the Cox Plate field forcing her to work. If the market takes her on a bit, I could definitely see myself getting involved.