3 minute read
Principles of Handicapping
We endeavour to show who you can use the Handicapper to improve your punting. We do this highlighting areas of the weekend’s racing where you can apply these philosophies.
Traditionally the weaker of the three feature sprints in the Victorian triple crown, it is probably only going to be more that way into the future with the Black Caviar Lightning being run the week prior. Trainers are less likely to back horses up after a strong 1000m run, generally first up, into this 1100m dash.
Mares had a great record around the turn of the century but Mrs Onassis’ win last year was the first one since 2004. History shows when fillies or mares win the Oakleigh Plate they are carrying in the range of 52.5kg or below.
There are the occasional outliers like Dantelah who was effectively a G1 winner herself before that with a top performance in New Zealand and then easily winning the race now known as the Sangster Stakes which was G2 at the time. She carried 54kg in her win.
Three year olds have had a great trot winning four times in ten years. Those winners certainly were - Starspangledbanner (2010), Weekend Hussler (2008), Snitzel (2006) and Fastnet Rock (2005).
Traditionally you were struggling to carry anything over 55kg and winning the Oakleigh Plate. From 1980 to 2001 only one horse scored by lumping more (Singing The Blues 55.5 in 1998).
Sudurka (55.5), Fastnet Rock (57.0), Undue (57.0), Eagle Falls (57.0) and Woorim (55.5) all won with more than that benchmark.
This points to a key in betting feature handicaps (or any handicap for that matter), betting the lightly raced horse.
The three-year-old is typically yet to show his or her hand to the handicapper and therefore gets in off a mark, or with weight, below that of his/her ability.
Three-year-olds and lightly raced four-year-olds dominate the feature handicaps around Australia and will continue to do so.
With that in mind such horses should be at the forefront when playing these races.
The three-year-olds lack star power in this year’s edition but Kuroshio is certainly one capable at big odds, while a range of lightly raced four-year-olds, headed by Lankan Rupee, make for a great betting race.
