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Historical Analysis of the Caulfield Cup

CAULFIELD CUP - G1 2400m

While it is the first leg of Australia’s handicap Cups double, the Caulfield Cup has remained a great race by itself. However it is also one of the best formguides to our most famous horserace. Usually run at a frenetic pace, you need both high speed and depth of stamina to win over this particular 2400m course as was displayed by possibly the two greatest winners of this race Might and Power and Tulloch some 40 years apart. Look at the recent winners.

PROFILING THE RACE

o Many a handicapper has won the CC and they dominated before Dunaden’s class win.

o Leaders had a trot early this decade

o Highest recent weight was Dunaden and Northerly’s 58 while lightest was Arctic Scent with 49kg in last 16 years.

o Only 3 mares have won in the last 20 years (Southern Speed, Ethereal & Arctic Scent).

o 11 of the last 20 winners have been 4yos.

o Horses in the market have run well but at backable odds (aside from ’08).

o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 4yo/6yo (4 times)

o Last 10 Winners Average Weight of winner - 54.0kg

o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $14

o Breakdown of winners - 4 geldings, 1 mare & 5 entires

o Races that the winner ran in prior - Turnbull Stks (5), Metropolitan Hcp (2), Newburgh Stks (1), Herbert Power Hcp (1), King George (1)

RECENT WINNERS

2013 - FAWKNER 6g (Reset x Dane Belltar) ($11)

Jockey: Nicholas Hall, Trainer: Robert Hickmott

Barrier: 10, Weight: 55.0kg, Gross Time: 2:29.10

Margin: 1.3L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 18

2nd: Dandino (56.5kg), 3rd: Dear Demi (53.0kg)

Review: Sometimes things happen for a reason. On a sad week when racing lost Andrew Ramsden, the first horse he owned was named similarly to Cup winner. Lloyd Williams himself owned Reset and it sired the winner while Nick Hall was able to win something his father could never. In the race, Dear Demi was snagged over heels and the favourite Hawkspur was dropped out too. They rolled along but the race changed complexion when Jet Away over raced and Oliver took off. He flushed a few out but it was Fawkner and Dandino’s jockeys who stayed composed. Hall was able to take gaps inside Glen Boss and he sprinted too quickly. Dandino came wide and Dear Demi up the fence but the grey was too quick. Hall was lucky too as it was not long ago when he stopped riding on Bound For Earth in Sydney and Ray Murrihy said if she had lost to Guelph that day he’d have had a long penalty. Luck played its part here.

Where did the Caulfield Cup winner run in the Melbourne Cup - 6th

Did the Melbourne Cup winner run at Caulfield - NO

2012 - DUNADEN 6h (Nicobar x La Marlia) ($13)

Jockey: Craig Williams, Trainer: Mikel Delzangles

Barrier: 18, Weight: 58.0kg, Gross Time: 2:28.82

Margin: 0.5L, Track: Good, Starters: 18

2nd: Alcopop (52.5kg), 3rd: Lights Of Heaven (53.0kg)

Review: Class with a Capital C. The European stayers were winning everything but here was something new. A Melbourne Cup winner coming back to the Caulfield Cup is not out of the ordinary (Viewed) but not with the imports. Then he went and drew 18. Williams snagged him out of the gates, he was second last on the fence past post first time. He latched onto Alcopop’s back when the leaders Glencadam Gold and Voila Ici punctured but the SA champ put three lengths on him. However that staying ability rounded them up and he came away.

Where did the Caulfield Cup winner run in the Melbourne Cup - 14th

Did the Melbourne Cup winner run at Caulfield - NO

2011 - SOUTHERN SPEED 4m (Southern Image x Golden Eagle) ($10)

Jockey: Craig Williams, Trainer: Leon Macdonald/Andrew Gluyas

Barrier: 3, Weight: 52.5kg, Gross Time: 2:28.44

Margin: 1.5L, Track: Good, Starters: 18

2nd: Green Moon (53.0kg), 3rd: Tullamore (54.5kg)

Review: Craig Williams put her in exactly the right spot. There had been talk in some media sections that it would be slowly run. That seemed pie in the sky with several internationals querying the favourites 2400m credentials. And so it was the Hong Kong horse Mighty High who poured it on. Then Green Moon, who was deep a lot of the race, eventually got near the speed. He went for home before the turn but it let Williams out. At that time wide runners like Lucas Cranach and Tullamore worked home well while the Cumani pair got inside runs. The winner drove away under the light weight to give Adelaide the big one.

Where did the Caulfield Cup winner run in the Melbourne Cup - DID NOT START

Did the Melbourne Cup winner run at Caulfield - NO