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Historical Analysis of the Sydney Cup
A two mile G1 test in Australia is becoming a thing of the past. Perth and Brisbane have reduced their Cups to a mile and a half while Adelaide stays at the 3200m but has also lost its status.
It’s doubtful the Sydney Cup would change but it needed some good winners to keep the wolves at bay and like the Metropolitan, it has had them recently.
It is unlikely there are any Makybe Divas, Tie the Knots, Kingston Towns or Galilee around at present but there is a prestigious race to win. Who takes 2016’s renewal?
PROFILING THE RACE
o County Tyrone ran in an amazing SIX straight Sydney Cups for a record of 1 win, 2 x 2nd, 2 x 4th and an 8th.
o Inside to middle barriers have been the most successful - barrier 8 won it six times over 13 years.
o Mares have only won three times since 1989.
o It’s been a good race for some not so high profile trainers.
o Tie the Knot’s 57kg then Mourayan’s 58kg are the highest weights carried since 1976 which was on a lower limit.
o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 7yo (4 times)
o Last 10 Winners Average Weight of winner - 54.0kg
o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $12
o Breakdown of winners - 8 geldings, 1 entire & 1 mare
o Races that the winner ran in prior - Chairman’s Hcp (7), BMW Stks (2), Adelaide Cup (1)
RECENT WINNERS
2015 - GRAND MARSHAL 5g (Dansili x Margarula) ($41)
Jockey: Jim Cassidy, Trainer: Chris WallerBarrier: 4, Weight: 52.0kg, Gross Time: 3:24.70
Margin: 0.1L, Track: Slow (7), Starters: 112nd: Who Shot Thebarman (54.5kg), 3rd: Like A Carousel (52.0kg)
Review: Another roughie winner on the day but the only one to get back and come home wide. After being heavily backed every start this campaign he didn’t do much in the Chairmans.
After winning the ‘other’ long race on Melbourne Cup at Flemington, you knew he could stay. But was he good enough to beat two Melbourne Cup placegetters and the emphatic BMW winner? Well Hartnell went to the front and got moving.
He ran along and it cost him. He got tired and WSTB took the inside. He looked home but Grand Marshal surged in the last furlong to get up by a nose and gave Chris Waller the quinella.
2014 - THE OFFER 5g (Montjeu x Valdara) ($3.25 fav)
Jockey: Tommy Berry, Trainer: Gai WaterhouseBarrier: 8, Weight: 55.0kg, Gross Time: 3:23.86
Margin: 4L, Track: Dead (5), Starters: 172nd: Opinion (54.0kg), 3rd: Sertorius (56.0kg)
Review: Berry had won the Queen Of The Turf earlier in the day but this was a bigger race. He had had his parents to the races for the first time in his career which is amazing given his father’s racing involvement.
But they could not have witnessed a better ride than his in the Sydney Cup. The Offer was favourite and rightly so. His form was superb in the lead ups. But Berry rode the perfect race, biding his time and waiting until everyone else had spent their petrol.
Rounding the turn he made a short dash and made many lengths in a hurry. Turn of foot in any race is important but in a staying race it is deadly. He put lengths on them and made a statement for the future.
2013 - MOURAYAN 7h (Alhaarth x Mouramara) ($12)
Jockey: Hugh Bowman, Trainer: Robert HickmottBarrier: 2, Weight: 58.0kg, Gross Time: 3:24.29
Margin: 0.8L, Track: Good, Starters: 102nd: Norsqui (55.0kg), 3rd: Aliyana Tilde (54.5kg)
Review: The stable have a wonderful history of winning major staying races. So much so that this made it six Aussie two mile wins in about six years. And yet again it was with an import.
Mourayan had been here for three seasons after previously placing in an Irish Derby. It was his durability that had kept him at the top level and he loved Randwick so Lloyd Williams sent him north. It was a decently run Cup without being overly fast.
As Kelinni moved up at the 800m, that horse went from bolting to gone so Bowman tracked him as long as he could then wound up and wore the leaders down.
