3 minute read
The Flemington carnival rolls on with Thursday’s VRC Oaks.
The formula is there for all to see on Thursday, with horses coming out of Saturday's Wakeful Stakes performing very well in the Oaks.
In the past ten years, five Oaks winners have come through the Wakeful, all five finishing in the quinella with three doing the double.
Looking at their ratings with Racing & Sports, this year's Wakeful has gone very well.
Treasurethe Moment has run to 109 on Saturday which is the highest Wakeful winning rating in the past ten years while Powers Of Opal ran to 105 in second.
Looking at the table below, those two are already firmly in the mix for Thursday and the race looks an ideal platform to back up.
| Year | Horse | Wakeful Rating/FP | Oaks Rating |
| 2023 | Zardozi | 102 (2nd) | 111 (+9) |
| 2021 | Willowy | 103 (1st) | 105 (+2) |
| 2020 | Personal | 105 (2nd) | 109 (+4) |
| 2019 | Miami Bound | 106 (1st) | 110 (+4) |
| 2018 | Aristia | 106 (1st) | 108 (+2) |
No doubt the winner was the best horse on Saturday, getting a perfect run but still running the fastest last 400/200m of the race. My feel is that race shape with a dash home really suited her but she won very well and must be a chance again.
The draw this time is far less kind to Treasurethe Moment with the 2500m start at Flemington tricky if you get caught wide which looks a big possibility.
The betting in the Wakeful was perhaps the biggest pointer. Powers Of Opal was backed off the map to win, starting $1.85, with the market thinking she was going to run around that 109 mark instead.
Powers Of Opal ran the fastest last 800 and 600m sectional but I don't think that's her go. She won her maiden in a ten-pound quicker time figure prior and I think she will be the one to relish a sterner test of 2500m.
Given the betting had such a distinction between them on Saturday, I think you have to be with Powers Of Opal at much bigger prices this time.
We saw that form put a hole in the Ethereal Stakes form with Jenni's Meadow second, beaten 0.4 lengths by Too Darn Discreet there, come out and be beaten nearly nine lengths in the Wakeful.
I'm happy to pen that form completely and think Too Darn Discreet has been winning bunched finishes in slow times where the form hasn't stood up.
Similarly to some extent, the Spring Champion form isn't all that strong. Harlem Queen was fourth there, running to 105 on the RAS ratings, the same as Powers Of Opal, but there was nothing sectionally to get excited about.
They were all finishing fast but were absolutely entitled to off a slow tempo and while El Castello had the task ahead from an awful barrier in The Derby, he didn't really give a huge push to that form.
The one out of the Wakeful at bigger odds that I will have something on is Killcare Beachgirl. She's very well bred and while faded from the lead in the Ethereal and Wakeful, she did lead into the wind on Saturday and likely gets conditions to really suit leaders on Thursday with a westerly wind and very dry conditions.
Happy to back Powers Of Opal and Killcare Beachgirl to turn the tables on Treasurethe Moment.
VRC Oaks 2024
Top tip: #5 Powers Of Opal at $4.00
Each-way: #9 Killcare Beachgirl at $26/6
